M10:00
不过这挺有意思的，呃，实际上我下一页没有做幻灯片，因为昨天晚上所有幻灯片都做好以后，我又稍微想了一下这件事，后来我想起来，呃，嗯，一九五四年年初的时候，股市——Dow 当时也就大概在二百八十点。
But it's interesting in that, uh, I actually don't have a slide for the next one because last night I was thinking, after all the slides had been prepared, I was actually thinking about this a little later, a little bit, and I remembered that, uh, um, at the start of 1954, the stock market was— the Dow was only at about 280.
呃，我对一九五四年印象很深，因为那是我在股市里表现最好的一年。
Uh, and I remember 1954 because it was the best year I ever had in the stock market.
然后，呃，Dow 基本上是从年初大概二百八十点左右，涨到年底四百点出头。
And, uh, the Dow went from essentially, uh, what, 280 or thereabouts at the start of the year to a little over 400 at the end of the year.
等它涨到四百点的时候，只要一越过三百八十一点——也就是一九二九年那个很有名的数字——等它到了四百点，呃，这话你们有些人可能很难相信，但当时所有人都在想：这是不是一九二九年又要重演了？
And when it went to 400, as soon as it went across 381, that famous figure from 1929, when it went to 400, uh, this will be hard for some of you to believe, but everybody wondered, is this 1929 all over again?
现在听起来这好像有点夸张，因为一九五四年的美国已经是个完全不同的国家了。
And that seems a little far-fetched because it was a different country in 1954.
但那在当时就是最普遍的问题，而且这种担忧真的到了相当严重的程度。大家担心的是，仅仅因为已经超过了一九二九年的三百八十一点，我们是不是又要掉下另一个悬崖了。结果他们还让 Senator Fulbright——也就是 Arkansas 的 Bill Fulbright——来主持。后来他因为 Foreign Relations Committee 变得非常有名，不过当时他领导的是 Senate Banking Committee。他还要求展开一次特别调查，他把那个调查叫作，呃，叫什么来着，Stock Market Study。
But that was the common question, and it actually achieved— it was, you know, it achieved such a level of worry about whether we were about to jump off another cliff just because the 381 of 1929 had been exceeded, that they held Senator Fulbright, Bill Fulbright of Arkansas, who became very famous later in terms of the Foreign Relations Committee, but he headed the Senate Banking Committee, and he called for a special investigation, and he called it the, uh, what'd he call it, the Stock Market Study.
不过其实，如果你把那份东西从头看到尾，你会发现他真正质疑的是：我们是不是又搭起了另一座纸牌屋。
But it really, as you, if you read through it, he really was questioning whether we had built another house of cards again.
还有，他那个委员会也挺有意思的。Senate Banking Committee 里有一位成员是 Prescott Bush，也就是 George H.W. Bush 的父亲，
And on his committee, it's interesting to see the Senate Banking Committee, uh, one of the members was Prescott Bush, the father of George H.W. Bush
也是 George W. Bush 的祖父，呃，里面还有一些很显赫的名字。
and grandfather of George W. Bush, uh, and had some illustrious names.
到了一九五五年三月，Dow 在四百零五点的时候，他那个委员会召集了美国二十位最杰出的头脑来作证，讨论我们是不是又开始发疯了，因为市场到了四百点，Dow 到了四百点，而我们以前也正是在这种情况下惹上过巨大的麻烦。
And his committee in March of 1955, with the Dow at 405, assembled 20 of the best minds in the United States to testify as to whether we were going crazy again because the market was at 400, the Dow was at 400, and we'd gotten in this incredible trouble before.
但那就是当时整个国家的心态。
But that was the mindset of the country.
真是难以置信。
It's incredible.