M10:00
现在已经非常接近中午了。
We're now very close to noon.
我之前承诺过，呃，大概五年前吧，我在五六年前写过一篇东西，讲的是投资者要承担的那些高得离谱的成本，很多投资者在被推销各种产品的时候都会承担这些成本。
I've promised, uh, 5 years ago, I wrote about 5 or 6 years ago about the inordinate costs that investors bear, and many investors bear, in getting sold various types of products.
我当时谈到了这个问题。
And I talked about it.
包括 Private equity，还有各种各样——还有一大堆别的东西。
Private equity and all kinds— and a whole variety of things.
投资行业一直都很擅长从投资者本来能拿到的回报里，抽走相当大的一部分。
The investment world has been very good at extracting a, a very significant percentage of the returns that investors get for themselves.
所以我就提出，愿意跟任何敢来应战的人打个赌：一组 hedge funds 在十年的时间里，跑不过一只无人管理、也不收销售费用的 index fund。
So I offered to bet anyone that wanted to step up to the plate that a group of hedge funds would not beat an unmanaged no-load index fund over a 10-year period.
我这么说了以后，后来还真有人接了这个赌，而且是一群很不错的人。
And I promised, and then I got a taker, and a very nice group of people.
我挺喜欢他们的，Ted Seides 还有他那一组人，他们接受了我的挑战。
I like them, Ted Seides and a group, and they took me up on this.
所以我们双方各拿出了大概三十五万美元，放进一个十年后会——嗯，我们把钱投进了 zero-coupon Treasuries，十年到期的时候会变成一百万美元。
So we each put about $350,000 or so into something where in 10 years it would— and well, we put it in zero-coupon Treasuries, which would mature and be worth $1 million in 10 years.
我也承诺每年都会汇报这个赌局的情况。
And I promised to report on the bet every year.
然后，呃，我们今年做的是，因为利率跌得太厉害了，我们原来大概七十万美元的投资，涨到了差不多九十五万美元。
And, uh, what we did this year, interest rates fell so far that our original $700,000 or so investment got to be worth like $950,000.
就是因为五年期 Treasury 的收益率降得太低了。
Just because the 5-year Treasury got so low.
所以从现在到五年后它到期之间，留给它继续升值的空间已经非常小了。
So there was very little appreciation left in it, uh, between now and 5 years from now when it matures.
所以我们把 zero-coupon Treasuries 卖掉了，用卖出的所得买了 Berkshire，而且我保证它到时候会值一百万美元。
So we sold the zero-coupon Treasuries and we bought Berkshire with the proceeds, and I guaranteed that it would be worth $1 million.
现在它大概值一百二十万美元，所以慈善机构多少已经开始受益了。
Currently it's worth about $1.2 million, so that the charities are benefiting to some extent.
Ted 那边有一个慈善机构，是个非常值得支持的慈善机构；我这边选的是 Omaha 的 Girls Inc.。
Now, Ted has one charity, which is a very worthwhile charity, and I have Girls Inc. of Omaha, which charity I selected.
我们可以把数据放到——放到那边屏幕上，看看目前的比分到什么位置了。
And we'll put the— we can put the figures up on the— there as to where we stand at the moment.
这些 hedge funds 一开始势头很猛，到第一年年底的时候，领先那只 index fund 十三个点。
The hedge funds got off to a fast start, and were 13 points ahead of the index fund at the end of the first year.
不过在过去四年里——而且这些其实是 fund-of-funds，所以它们底下实际上大概代表着两百到三百只、也许更多的 hedge funds，但这里面有两层收费。
But the last 4 years— and these are fund-of-funds, so they really represent probably 200 or 300 maybe hedge funds underneath, but there's 2 levels of fees involved.
第一层是 hedge funds 的标准收费，很多时候可能就是 2 and 20，当然也可能是别的收费方式。
There's the standard fees of the hedge funds, which probably many times are 2 and 20, but can be other things.
然后在这上面，还有 fund of funds 再加一层费用。
And then there's the fee of the fund of funds on top of it.
所以，呃，现在我们已经走到一半了，呃，我会继续每年向大家汇报进展；如果 Berkshire 表现不错的话——
So, uh, we now are at the, the halfway point, and, uh, and I'll keep reporting to you every year how we do and if Berkshire does well.
那我们最后能分配给这两个慈善机构其中之一的钱，就会远远超过一百万美元。
We'll have well over $1 million to distribute to one of 2 charities.
你们不妨去看看一个叫 longbets.org 的网站。
You might enjoy going to a website called longbets.org.
那就是——他们是替大家保管这笔钱的，你们会看到，上面有不少人拿来打赌的命题，而且每个命题的支持方和反对方都会写一小段简短说明。
That's where— they're the people that hold the money, and you will see that there are a number of propositions that people have wagered on, and the proponent and the opponent of every proposition give a short little description.
Ted 写了一段，说明他为什么觉得自己会赢。
Ted gave a description of why he thought he'd win.
我也写了一段，说明我为什么觉得我会赢。
I gave a description of why I thought I'd win.
不过其中有些赌题——我实在忍不住，想顺带指出其中两个。
But some of these are— I just can't resist pointing out a couple of them.
你们可以在网上看到，其中一个是说，一个大型 collider 会在十年内毁灭地球。
You can see these on the web, but one of it is that a large collider will destroy the Earth in 10 years.
这个赌注是一千美元，不过我也不确定到时候谁来收这个钱。
Now, there's a $1,000 bet on that, but I'm not sure who will collect.
我觉得那个挺有意思的。
I thought that was an interesting one.
还有另外一个，然后我们就去吃午饭。
And there was one other, and then we'll go to lunch.
不过这里面有不少都挺有意思的。
But there, there are a number of these that are quite interesting.
在二零零零年还活着的人里，至少会有一个人在二一五零年还活着。
At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.
从打这个赌的时候算起，到那时是一百四十八年。
Now that's 148 years from when the bet was entered.
这上面有一笔两千美元的赌注，我希望 Charlie 也有机会成为这个赌的赢家。
There's a $2,000 bet on that, and I hope Charlie is in contention for being the winner of that one.
好，我们午饭休息一个小时。
Well, we'll take a 1-hour break for lunch.
之后我们会回到这里，继续回答你们的问题。
We'll be back here then, and we'll continue with your questions.
谢谢。
Thank you.