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2013年股东大会 · 还没有业绩的基金经理,要如何吸引投资人?

26 段 · 3 位说话人 · 原片 4:08
M1
M10:00

来自 Los Angeles 的 Brandon。

Brandon from Los Angeles.

如果我现在二十多岁,正要开始做一个 partnership,在我还没有作为独立投资人单独操盘的业绩记录之前,您对怎么让别人投钱给我,有什么建议?

If I'm in my 20s and I'm starting a partnership, what advice do you have about getting people to put in money before I have a track record as a solo investor?
M2
M20:18

这个嘛,你还没说服我。

Well, you haven't sold me.

不,我,我,我不——我觉得,人们把钱交给别人投资这件事,应该非常谨慎,就算对方已经有业绩记录,也一样。

No, I, I, I don't— I think people should be quite cautious about investing money with other people, whether even when they have a track record.

顺便说一句,很多业绩记录其实并没有太大意义。

Incidentally, there are a lot of track records that don't mean much.

但总的来说,我会建议任何一个想管钱、也想在以后吸引资金的年轻人,尽早开始建立一份经过审计的业绩记录。

But overall, I would advise any young person that wants to manage money and wants to attract money later on to start developing an audited track record as early as they can.

我是说,这远远不是——远远不是我们雇 Todd 和 Ted 的唯一原因,但我们当然看了他们的业绩,而且我们看的是那种我们俩都相信、也都能理解的业绩,因为我们看到过很多我们并不觉得有什么意义的业绩。

I mean, it was far from the sole reason, far from the sole reason that we hired Todd and Ted, but we certainly looked at their record, and we looked at a record that we both believed and could understand because we see a lot of records that we don't really think mean much.

我的意思是,就像我很多年前写过的,如果你搞一个抛硬币比赛,外面有三亿一千万只 orangutan,它们都来抛硬币,而且每只都抛十次,那你知道,最后——不是还剩三亿只,大概会剩下三十万只,能够连续十次都抛对。

I mean, if you get, you know, if you have a coin-flipping contest, as I wrote, you know, some years ago, and you get 310 million orangutans out there and they all flip coins and they flip them 10 times, you know, you will— instead of having 300 million left, you'll have 300,000 roughly left that'll flip 10 times in a row successfully.

而这些 orangutan 很可能就会到处去,想吸引很多钱来支持它们参加未来的抛硬币比赛。

And those orangutans will probably go around trying to attract a lot of money to back them in future coin-flipping contests.

所以,当我们雇一个人来管钱的时候,我们的工作就是要判断,他们到底只是运气好的抛硬币选手,还是真的知道自己在做什么。

But so it's our job when we hire somebody to manage money, to figure out whether they've been lucky coin flippers or whether they really know what they're doing.
M3
M31:52

你当年遇到这个问题的时候,不是也从一个充满爱的家庭里东拼西凑弄来了大概十万美元吗?

When you had this problem, didn't you scrape together about $100,000 from a loving family?
M2
M21:59

对,不过我希望他们把钱给我之后,还是继续爱我。

Yeah, well, I hope they kept loving me after they gave me the money.

那时候——嗯,进展非常慢,而且本来也就应该非常慢。

That was the— well, it was very slow, and it should have been very slow.

正如 Charlie 指出的,当时有些人觉得我在搞 Ponzi scheme,大概那时候就是这么想的;还有些人可能未必真这么想,但他们觉得,稍微吓吓别人对自己有好处,因为他们也在 Omaha 卖投资产品。

As Charlie has pointed out, some people thought I was running a Ponzi scheme, probably then, and other people may not have thought it, but they thought it was to their advantage to sort of scare people because they were selling investments in Omaha.

但你要吸引资金,前提是你得配得上这笔钱;你要随着时间建立起一份能证明这一点的业绩记录;然后你还得能向别人解释,为什么这份业绩是源于健全的思考,而不是——不是因为你刚好踩中了趋势,或者,或者,或者只是单纯运气好。

But you, to attract money, you should deserve money, and you should develop a record over time that does it, and then you should be able to explain to people why that record is a product of sound thinking rather than, than simply being in tune with the trend or, or, or, or simply just being lucky.

Charlie,假设你今天重新开始,而且你二十五岁。

Charlie, you're starting today and you're 25 years old.

你会怎么吸引资金?

How do you attract money?
M3
M32:57

朋友、家人,或者那些已经通过别的方式建立了对你信任的人。

Friends and family, or people whose trust they've already earned in some other way.

所以年轻的时候这件事很难做,这也就是为什么大家一开始规模都很小,而且最后真正能成功的人相对来说并不多。

So it's hard to do when you're young, and that's why people start so small, and relatively few will be successful.

这也没错。

That's right too.
M2
M23:13

对,有些人会——会有很多人成功,也会赚——我是说,你知道,我们这里有 hedge fund 的业绩记录,在那段时间里,hedge fund 经理人很可能已经赚了相当可观的一大笔钱。

Yeah, some will— a great many will be successful and make— I mean, you know, we had the hedge fund record here, and during that time, the hedge fund managers have probably made a very considerable amount of money.

正如我指出的,Todd 和 Ted 如果是在 2-and-20 的收费安排下工作,那他们今年哪怕把钱直接扔进地上的一个洞里,照样每个人都能赚一亿两千万美元。

As I pointed out, Todd and Ted, working under a 2-and-20 arrangement, if they put the money in a hole in the ground, would make $120 million each this year.

所以,这显然不是一种你在参与之前不值得先认真想一想的安排。

So it's not exactly an arrangement that you don't want to think about a little bit before you engage in it.
M3
M33:58

这种算法会吸引来很多不太对路的人。

The arithmetic attracts many of the wrong sort of people.
M2
M24:04

当然了,我们当时觉得自己是例外。

Naturally, we thought we were exceptions.
M3
M34:07

Andrew?

Andrew?