M20:29
这种情况不可能持续太久。
It can't continue very long.
别这么悲观，Charlie。
Don't get defeatist, Charlie.
无论 Berkshire 最终安排谁来接任，资本配置能力，以及经过验证的资本配置能力，肯定都会是董事会最看重的因素；或者就目前来说，在我和 Charlie 为我们离开之后的安排提出建议时，这也一定会是最重要的考量之一。
Any successor that's put in at Berkshire, capital allocation abilities and proven capital allocation abilities are certain to be uppermost in the board's minds, or in the current case, in terms of my recommendation, Charlie's recommendation for what happens after we're not around.
资本配置对于 Berkshire 来说极其重要。
Capital allocation is incredibly important at Berkshire.
现在我们的股东权益大概有两千八百亿美元，或者九百亿美元，不管具体是多少。
Right now we have $280 billion, $90 billion, whatever it may be, of shareholders' equity.
呃，单看未来十年，你知道，没人能对此做出准确预测。但在接下来的十年里，光是折旧，现在每年就有另外七十亿美元左右。
Uh, if you take the next decade alone, you know, nobody can make accurate predictions on this, but in the next 10 years, if you just take— and depreciation right now is another $7 billion a year, something on that order.
呃，未来十年，下一任管理者可能要配置大约四千亿美元，或者差不多这个数，甚至可能更多。
Uh, the next, the next manager over the decade is going to have to allocate maybe $400 billion or something like that, maybe more.
而且这个数字会超过此前已经投入的金额。
And it's more than already has been put in.
所以十年之后，Berkshire 将会是一批企业的集合，而在那十年里投入的资金，会超过此前所有时期投入资金的总和。
So 10 years from now, Berkshire will be an aggregation of businesses where more money has been put in in that decade than everything that took place beforehand.
所以，担任 Berkshire CEO 的人，必须非常擅长进行理性的资本配置。
So you need a very sensible capital allocator, uh, in the job of being CEO of Berkshire.
而我们会找到这样的人。
And we will have one.
如果让一个资本配置根本不是主要特长的人来担任这个职位，那将会是一个非常严重的错误。
Uh, it would be a terrible mistake, uh, to have someone in this job where really capital allocation might not even be their main talent.
资本配置能力应该非常接近他们的核心特长。
That probably should be very close to their main talent.
当然，Berkshire 有一个优势，那就是我们很清楚资本配置有多重要，而且我们一直都专注于这件事。
Um, And of course, we have an advantage at Berkshire in that we do know how important that is, and there is that focus on it.
而在很多公司里，人们是凭借能力和销售业绩一路升到最高层的。
And in a great many companies, people get to the top, uh, through ability and sales.
有时候他们来自法律部门，有时候来自完全不同的领域，结果资本配置就落到了他们手里。
Sometimes they come from the legal side, sometimes all different sides, and they then have the capital allocation sort of in their hands.
他们可能不会设立专门负责战略思考的部门，也可能会听取投资银行家的意见之类的，但他们最好还是得有能力亲自做资本配置。
Now, they may not establish strategic thinking divisions, and they may listen to investment bankers and everything, but they better be able to do it themselves.
呃，如果他们来自其他背景，或者过去没有做过资本配置，那就有点像——我在一封信里打过一个比方，我觉得这就像一个人拉小提琴考进了 Carnegie Hall，结果走上台之后，别人递给他的却是一架钢琴。
Uh, and, uh, if they come from a different background or haven't done it, it's a little bit— as I put in one of my letters, I think it's like getting to Carnegie Hall playing the violin, and then you walk out on the stage and they hand you a piano.
我的意思是，如果让一个在其他领域很有能力、但确实没有资本配置能力的人来担任这个职位，Berkshire 的表现一定不会好。
I mean, it is something that Berkshire would not do well if somebody was put in who had a lot of skills in other areas but really did not have an ability of capital allocation.
我以前把这种能力称作一种“金钱头脑”。
I've talked about it as being something I call a money mind.
我的意思是，有些人的智商可能是一百二，有些人可能是一百四，不管具体是多少，他们在智力测试中的得分能力可能很相近，但有些人的头脑擅长处理某一类事情，另一些人则擅长处理另一类事情。
I mean, people can have 120 IQs or 140 IQs or whatever it may be, very similar scoring abilities in terms of intelligence tests, and some of them have minds that are good at one type of thing and some of them another.
我认识一些非常聪明的人，但他们没有所谓的“金钱头脑”，所以他们也可能做出非常不明智的决定。
I've known very bright people that do not have money minds, and they can make very unintelligent decisions.
他们可以做很多普通人做不到的事，呃，但在资本配置这件事上就是不行——他们的思维方式本来就不是这样运作的。
They can do all kinds of other things that most mortals can't do, uh, but it just doesn't— it isn't the way their wiring works.
我也认识另外一些人，他们在这方面确实不会表现得特别出色。
And I've known other people that really would not do that brilliantly.
他们在这方面表现不错，比如参加 SAT 考试之类的，但他们这辈子从来没做过什么愚蠢的金钱决策。
They do fine, but on an SAT test or something like that, but they've never made a dumb money decision in their life.
我相信 Charlie 也见过同样的情况。
And Charlie, I'm sure, has seen the same thing.
所以，我们确实希望找这样一个人，而且希望他有很多方面的才能，但我们当然不希望找一个人，如果他缺乏金钱头脑的话。
So we do want somebody, and hopefully they've got a lot of talents, but we certainly do not want somebody that—if they lack a money mind.
Charlie？
Charlie?
另外，还有回购股票这个选项，所以这也不是什么无解的问题。
Well, there's also the option of buying back stock, so it isn't like it's some hopeless problem.
不管怎么说，最终都会做出明智的决定。
One way or another, something intelligent will be done.
而一个有金钱头脑的人，会知道什么时候回购股票是合理的，什么时候又不合理。
And a money mind will recognize when it makes sense to buy back stock and doesn't, you know.
事实上，从管理能力的角度来说，看看一个人是怎么考虑回购股票这种事情的，这其实是个相当不错的测试。因为如果你能对这类问题进行清晰、直接的思考，这并不是什么复杂的计算。
And in fact, it's a pretty good test for some people in terms of management, how they think about something like buying back stock, uh, because it's not a very complicated equation if you sort of think straight about that sort of a subject.
但有些人就是会这么想，有些人不会。他们可能在某些方面比在其他方面强得多。
But some people think that way and some don't, and they're probably miles better at something than something else.
但当你问到一个看起来如此明确的问题，比如回购股票到底合不合理时，他们还是会说出一些非常愚蠢的话。
But they say some very silly things when you get to something that seems so clear as whether, say, buying back stock makes sense.