M20:18
你把我在这个问题上的脑力看得比我实际有的还高了。
You give me credit for more brainpower than I actually bring to the question.
我觉得，你没法看某一个月的某个单一指标，就准确判断它会对通胀率产生什么影响，因为这里面有太多因素——一旦它开始动起来，很多东西就会随之启动——它会形成自己的内在动力，你知道的。
I don't think you can look at any given metric in any given month and figure out exactly what that's going to do to inflation rates, because so much— if it gets going, so much starts— it creates its own dynamic, you know.
我们在七十年代末和八十年代初就见过这种情况，直到 Volcker 拿着大锤对经济下重手。
And we saw that in the late 1970s and early 1980s until Volcker came along with a sledgehammer to the economy.
但那个时候，人们是在逃离货币。
But we had people running from money at that time.
当然了，我们把 prime rate 推到了百分之二十一点几，government rates 也推上去了。
And of course, we got the prime rate up to 21 and a fraction percent, and we got governments up.
非常接近百分之十五。
To very close to 15%.
所以，大概三十年前，这个国家就给我们做过一个小型示范：当人们开始对货币感到恐惧时，会发生什么。
So we have— we had a little demonstration project 30 years ago in this country of what happens when people get fearful about money.
如果我们继续现在的这些政策，我会觉得，那样的一幕重演，可能性是相当大的。
And we— if we were to continue the policies we have now, I would think something— a rerun of that, you know, could be fairly likely.
不过，你知道，趋势并不等于命运。
But, you know, trend is not destiny.
我们——我们有能力采取行动，Congress 也有这个权力。
We don't— we, we have the power to do things, and Congress has the power.
这也是为什么我一年前写了那篇 op-ed，算是亮个黄灯，提醒一下。
And that's why I wrote that op-ed piece a year ago, to sort of flash a yellow light.
呃，我们有能力掌控自己的未来，而我们是通过民选代表来做到这一点的。
Uh, we have the power to control our future, and we do it through elected representatives.
呃，我还是回到这个结论上：根据我看到的正在发生的事情——美国民众、政府，还有全世界——我觉得，currencies 这个赌注，现在比过去一段时间都要差。
Uh, I, I will just go back to the conclusion that based on what I see happening— American people, government, around the world— I think currencies are a poorer bet than they have been for some time.
但这具体意味着多高的通胀率，我完全不知道，而且我希望，我希望我是错的。
But I have no idea what that means in terms of rates of inflation, and I hope, I hope I'm wrong on it.
我要说的是，如果通胀真的一旦坐上了马鞍，也就是一旦真正掌了权，那它会以多快的速度加速，就会变得非常难以预测。
I would say if inflation ever really gets in the saddle, that it gets very unpredictable as to how, how fast it can accelerate.
而且，人们对各种机构的信心会怎么崩塌，也会变得很难预料。
And how faith in institutions can break down.
很多事情，很多糟糕的事情，都可能随之发生。
A lot of things, a lot of bad things could happen with it.
Charlie？
Charlie?