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什么话题能让芒格滔滔不绝(当然是Costco)

23 段 · 3 位说话人 · 原片 2:48
M1
M10:00

嘿,Warren,Charlie,再次感谢你们邀请我们,也感谢你们邀请我。

Hey, Warren, Charlie, thank you again for having us and having me.

我真的不知道该怎么更充分地感谢你们,也真的非常感激你们为我们留下的这一整套成果,还有你们用自己的原则树立起来的那个榜样。

I just can't thank you guys enough and appreciate you guys enough for the body of work that you guys have delivered to us and the exemplar example that you guys have set with your principles.

谢谢。

Thank you.

Charlie,你之前提过,如果有机会,或者说如果是在同样的机会、但资金规模更小的情况下,你还是会去寻找被错误定价的股票机会。

Charlie, you've mentioned that if given the chance, or the same chance with a smaller capital base, you would still look for mispriced stock opportunities.

当然。

Of course.

而这显然会通过我们所说的那家机构或者那家公司本身的内在价值来判断,也就是未来现金流折现后的总和。

And that would be determined through obviously what we call the intrinsic value of the organization or the company in question, an aggregate of the discounted future cash flows.

你能不能用一组虚构的数据来做一下这个算术演示,说明一下用来判断内在价值的数学原理?

Would you work the arithmetic using a fictional dataset to illustrate the mathematical principles to determine an intrinsic value?

我也希望你能把完整的思维模型一起讲一下,包括会考虑哪些关键指标、对管理层有哪些定性判断,以及对它所在行业会做哪些假设,从而判断它盈利能力的持久性。

And I'd hope you include the comprehensive mental model of the key metrics considered, any qualitative assessments of the management, and any assumptions of its industry to determine the durability of its earning power?

还有,Warren,类似地,就这个问题来说,你能不能也演示或者说明一个基于大规模资金体量的算术案例,并讲讲这里面有哪些经验教训,以及这些东西从小资金规模到大资金规模是怎么变化的?

And Warren, same, same to that effect, would you also demonstrate or illustrate an arithmetic problem set using a significant capital base and provide the object lessons on how those have changed from a small to a large capital base?
M2
M21:17

这个嘛,我没法给你一个公式化的方法,因为我自己不用那一套。

Well, I can't give you a formulaic approach because I don't use one.

我就是把所有因素都综合在一起看,如果价值和价格之间的差距没有吸引力,我就去看别的机会。

And I just mix all— I just mix all the factors, and if the gap between value and price is not attractive, I go on to something else.

有时候也就是纯看量化数据。

And sometimes it's just quantitative.

比如说,当时 Costco 的市盈率大概是十二倍到十三倍。

For instance, when Costco was selling at about 12 or 13 times earnings.

我觉得那个估值低得离谱,原因很简单,就是这家企业的竞争优势太强了,而且它极有可能会继续越做越好。

I thought that was a ridiculously low value just because the competitive strength of the business was so great, and it was so likely to keep doing better and better.

但我没法把这个给你归纳成一个公式。

But I can't reduce that to a formula for you.

我喜欢它便宜的房地产。

I like the cheap real estate.

我喜欢它的竞争地位。

I like the competitive position.

我喜欢它那套人员管理系统的运作方式。

I liked the way the personnel system worked.

我喜欢它的一切,我当时就觉得,哪怕它的市净率是三倍还是多少,反正它就是值更多。

I liked everything about it, and I thought, Even though it's 3 times book or whatever it was then, that it's worth more.

但这不是什么别人能直接套用的公式。如果你想要公式,你应该回研究生院去。

But that's not a formula that anybody— if you want a formula, you should go back to graduate school.

他们会给你一大堆根本不管用的公式。

They'll give you lots of formulas that won't work.
M3
M32:36

这是我们在 Berkshire 的股东大会上,Charlie 这么久以来第一次这么长时间都还没说他更喜欢 Costco 胜过 Berkshire。

This is the longest we've ever gone in the Berkshire meeting without Charlie saying that he prefers Costco to Berkshire.

好,Andrew。

Okay, Andrew.