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2000年股东大会 · 11岁股东的提问,让巴菲特想要雇用他

43 段 · 2 位说话人 · 原片 4:12
F1
F10:01

嗨,Buffett 先生,Munger 先生。

Hi, Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger.

我叫 Will Oberndorf。

My name is Will Oberndorf.

我来自 California 的 San Francisco,今年十一岁。

I'm from San Francisco, California, and I'm 11 years old.

我持有 Berkshire Hathaway 的股票已经六年了。

I have been a shareholder for 6 years at Berkshire Hathaway.

我的问题是,GEICO 可持续的竞争优势是什么?

My questions are, what are GEICO's sustainable competitive advantages?

还有一个问题是,互联网会给汽车保险行业的定价带来什么影响?

And my other one is, what are the implications of the internet on pricing for the auto insurance industry?
M1
M10:36

嗯,我们得记下你的名字,送到人力资源部,或者不管他们现在怎么叫那个部门。

Well, we're going to get your name and send it to human relations or whatever they call those departments.

我们想雇你。

We want to hire you.

GEICO 可持续的竞争优势,就是以最低的成本提供非常好的服务。

The sustainable competitive advantage at GEICO is to be the low-cost producer providing very good service.

而且,能提供优质服务的公司会有不少。

And there will be a number of companies that provide good service.

所以,光这一点并不能让我们和很多竞争对手区分开来。

So that does not distinguish us from a great many competitors.

拥有低成本这一点至关重要。

Having the low cost is crucial.

有些公司会专门服务某些特定的投保人群体——我是说投保人群体,但规模更小。

There are companies that specialize in given groups of share— of policyholders, but smaller groups.

比如 USAA,他们的成本控制就做得非常好。

Such as USAA, that have very good costs.

所以在他们自己选择的那块领域里,他们和我们竞争得非常非常激烈。

So they are very, very competitive with us in their chosen area.

Los Angeles 还有另一家公司,从地域上来说——叫 21st Century Insurance——它的成本水平跟我们差不多。

There's another company in Los Angeles that geographically— called 21st Century Insurance— that has costs like ours.

所以在那个地理区域内,他们的竞争力也非常强。

And so they are extremely competitive within that geographic area.

我不认为在全国范围经营的公司里,有谁比我们做得更好。

I don't think anybody is any better than us who operates nationwide.

我们不在 Massachusetts 或者 New Jersey 经营,但在另外四十八个州,我们几乎给任何人都能报出一个报价。

We don't operate in Massachusetts or New Jersey, but in the other 48 states, we will have a quote for about anyone.

所以,如果从覆盖面广的汽车保险竞争对手这个角度来看,我们的竞争优势,长期来说,必须是低成本。

So, in terms of a broad-based insurance— auto insurance competitor, our competitive advantage has to be low cost over time.

当然,我们还得和别人一样擅长区分不同类型司机所带来的风险。

Now, we also have to be as good at distinguishing among the risks posed by different kinds of drivers as other people.

换句话说,我们得能挑出那些会比平均水平更好的司机,同时也得能判断出谁更可能是低于平均水平的司机。

In other words, we have to be able to select people who are going to be better than average drivers, and we have to be able to understand who is likely to be a poorer than average driver.

不过,这种识别并区分这些人的能力,本身也会是一种竞争优势。

But, and the ability to do that, to distinguish those people, would be a competitive advantage.

我觉得很多公司在这一点上其实都差不多。

I think that many companies tend to be fairly equal on that point.

所以关键其实还是成本水平。我们非常非常在意成本,就像 Charlie 刚才提到的那家叫 Costco 的公司,在零售领域也是这样。

So it's really at this cost level, and we, we care very much about costs the same way that Charlie mentioned a company called Costco does, you know, in terms of retailing.

他们会把费用率精确到百分之一百分点的几分之一,这一点很重要。

They figure their expense ratios out to hundredths of a percent, and that is important.

所以,这就是竞争优势。

So that is the competitive advantage.

然后,当你谈到——而且我们必须把这种优势保持住,如果可能的话,还要把它进一步扩大。

Now, when you get— and we have to sustain and widen that if possible.

至于互联网这个问题,它会非常重要。

The question of the internet, it's going to be very important.

对 GEICO 来说,它现在其实已经很重要了。

It already is important to GEICO.

这个会变得越来越重要。

It will be more and more important.

这对保险行业会很重要,因为有了 internet 之后,就会出现这样一种情况:有人在考虑给一辆车上保险的时候,只要点到一个地方,就能查到那个报价是多少。

It will be important to the insurance industry, because when you have the internet, you have a situation where somebody thinking about insuring a car can click to one place, find out what that rate will be.

他们也可以再点到别的地方,看看那边的报价是多少。

They can click to someplace else and find out what that rate will be.

所以实际上,他们可以到处比较,不用一个地方一个地方地跑,也不用开车跑遍全城,或者给很多代理人打电话。

So in effect, they can shop all around without going from place to place to place and driving all over town or calling lots of agents.

他们就可以直接在自己的书房里,在那儿就把这事做了。

They can just do it right there in their, in their, in their den.

这也再次说明,我们必须是一家低成本公司,这一点非常重要。

And that makes it very important again that we be the low-cost company.

这个——我觉得,随着时间推移,这会成为我们的一个优势。

It—I think it's going to be an advantage for us over time.

一方面,我觉得 brand 会变得非常重要,因为我们希望大家一想到可以联系的选择之一,就会想到 GEICO。

For one thing, I think it makes brand very important because we want people to be thinking of GEICO as one of the possibilities to call.

如果你是一家谁都没听说过的 XYZ company,那就不会有人想到去点你们。

And if you've got the XYZ company that nobody's ever heard of, nobody's going to think about clicking on them.

而 GEICO 的品牌正在变得让全国各地的人都非常熟悉,我们也在花很多钱,让它变得更家喻户晓。

And GEICO's brand is becoming extremely familiar to people throughout the country, and we're spending a lot of money to make it even more familiar.

所以你提了两个非常好的问题,我觉得在这两件事上,我们的处境都相当不错。

So you've asked two very good questions, and I, I think we're in pretty good shape on both of them.

谢谢。

Thank you.

Charlie,第三位。

Charlie, number three.