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2002年股东大会 · 黄金价格对企业估值有影响吗?

24 段 · 2 位说话人 · 原片 3:18
M1
M10:00

尊敬的 Buffett 先生和 Munger 先生,我叫 Adrian Cheung。

Dear Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger, my name is Adrian Cheung.

我是来自 Hong Kong 的股东。

I'm a shareholder from Hong Kong.

一如既往,感谢你们的领导和带给我们的启发。

Thank you for your leadership and inspiration as always.

能一直听你们讲话,真的很棒。

It's wonderful always listening to you.

如果可以的话,我想向两位先生请教一个分成两部分的问题。

If I may, I would like to ask of you both gentlemen a question in 2 parts.

也许等你们回答完第一部分之后,我再问第二部分。

Perhaps I can ask the second part after you've answered the first part.

问题的第一部分,和你们放进股东资料里的那篇十二月十号的 Fortune 文章有关。

The first part of the question relates to the Fortune article dated December 10th you included in our shareholder materials.

在这篇文章里,你提到,市场之间那种显著的分化,没法用 GNP 增长的差异来解释。

In this article, you mentioned that one couldn't explain the remarkable divergence in markets by differences in the growth of GNP.

不过,这种分化可以用利率来解释。

However, one could explain the divergence by interest rates.

我的第一个问题是这样的。

The first question I have is this.

先生,我在想,如果你去看你提到的那两个时期里的黄金价格,也就是一九四八到一九六四年,以及六四年到八一年,那么这个解释会不会更加清楚。

I wonder, sir, if you were to look at the price of gold during the 2 periods of times you mentioned, that is to say, 1948-64 and '64-81, if the explanation could be even more clear.

这样一来,合乎逻辑的理由是不是可以说,一九四八年 Dow 是一百七十七点,而且只有一九二九年三百八十一点指数的一半左右,是因为 American dollar 从每盎司二十点六七美元贬值到三十五美元,贬值了百分之七十一;如果再把你提到的一九四零年代人均增长创纪录地达到百分之五十这个因素算进去,那么 Dow 的公允价值就会是一百六十六点,是这样吗?

Thus, the logical reason would be why the Dow in '48 was 177, was because— and half the level of 1929, 381 index points— is because of the 71% devaluation of the American dollar from 20.67 an ounce to 35 dollars an ounce, which would put the fair value of the Dow at 166 after factoring in the record 50% per capita gain of the 1940s that you had mentioned?
M2
M21:26

对,我是在一个家里经常谈论黄金的家庭中长大的,我的姐妹们今天也在这儿。

Yeah, I grew up in a household, and my sisters are here, where gold was talked about frequently.

所以这些年来,我接触过很多这方面的想法。

So I've been exposed to a lot of thinking on that over the years.

但我并不真的认为黄金——准确地说,是黄金价格——和企业估值有什么真正的关系。

I don't really think gold has really— the price of gold, I should say, has anything really to do with the valuation of businesses.

它也许会反映出某个时点上,这些企业对应价格里正在发生的一些情况,但我不会把它——我的意思是,黄金价格不会进入我的思考框架。

It may reflect certain things that are going on in prices attached to those businesses at a given time, but I would not regard— I mean, the price of gold does not enter into my thinking.
M1
M12:11

嗯。

Yeah.
M2
M22:12

不管是今天、一年前、十年前,还是明天,我在给一家企业估值的时候,完全不会从任何角度把它算进去。

In any way, shape, or form in terms of how I value a business today, a year ago, 10 years ago, or tomorrow.

比如我们看 Larson-Juhl 这家定制画框业务的时候,你知道,我不会去想黄金,也不会把它和黄金的表现联系起来。

When we look at Larson-Juhl, the custom picture frame operation, you know, I'm not thinking of that and relating it in any way to what gold has done.

所以,对我们来说,它不是一个因素,和其他大宗商品没有什么两样。

So, it's just not a factor with us any more than other commodities would be.

我的意思是,不管是小麦、可可豆还是什么别的,对有些人来说,它确实有一种吸引力。

I mean, it, you know, whether it's wheat, whether it's cocoa beans or whatever, it has, you know, it has a certain hold on some people.

他们,他们会这样看——但是——我们不会把它看成一种有意思的投资,也不会把它当作给其他投资估值的标尺。

And they, they— but it's— we don't look at it as an interesting investment, and we don't look at it as a yardstick for valuing other investments.
M1
M13:03

Charlie?

Charlie?
M2
M23:05

对,Warren 说得没错,利率在决定股票整体价值这件事上非常重要;我也认为他说黄金并不重要,这一点同样是对的。

Yeah, Warren is right when he says that interest rates are very important in determining the value of stocks generally, and I think he's also right when he says gold is very unimportant.