M10:00
不过说回股票，人们太常会用一种态度来看它们：就因为股票流动性强，而且分分秒秒都有报价，他们就觉得自己也必须分分秒秒对它形成一个看法。
But going back to stocks, people bring the attitude to them too often that because they are liquid and quoted minute by minute, that it's important that you develop an opinion on them minute by minute.
其实你仔细想想，这真的很愚蠢。呃，这也是 Graham 教会我的一件事。
Now, that's really foolish when you think about it, but, uh, and that's something Graham taught me.
一九四九年。
In 1949.
我的意思是，就那一个想法——股票是企业的一部分，不只是那些在图表上来回波动的小东西。那时候图表非常流行，诸如此类。
I mean, that single thought—stocks were parts of businesses and not just little things that moved around on charts, or charts were very popular in those days, and whatever it may be.
你先想象一下，假设你现在决定拿钱投资，然后你买了一块农场。
Imagine for a moment that you decided to invest money now and you bought a farm.
再假设这附近的农地吧，呃，比如说你买了一百六十英亩，你买入的价格是每股 X——或者说每英亩 X；而你隔壁那个农民也有一百六十英亩一模一样的地，地形一样，你知道的，土壤质量也一样。
And the farmland around here, uh, let's say you bought 160 acres and you bought it at X per share or per acre, and the farmer next to you had 160 identical acres, same contour, you know, same quality of soil quality.
所以，这两块地是完全一样的。
So it was, it was identical.
而你隔壁那个农民呢，呃，是个非常古怪的人，因为他每天都会拿着那块跟你一模一样的农场来说，我可以把我的农场卖给你，或者我可以买你的农场，价格是多少多少，由他自己开。
And that farmer next door to you, uh, was a very peculiar character because every day that farmer with the identical farm said, I'll sell you my farm, or I'll buy your farm at a certain price, which he would name.
这可真是个特别热心的邻居。
Now, that's a very obliging neighbor.
我的意思是，隔壁农场有这么个人，按理说还真算是个加分项。
I mean, that's got to be a plus to have a fellow like that with the next farm.
呃，现实里的农场可没有这种事。
Uh, you don't get that with farms.
但股票有。
You get it with stocks.
如果你想买卖 General Motors 的一百股，周一早上，你知道的，总会有人按完全一样的价格买下你的这一百股，或者再卖给你一百股。
If you want 100 shares of General Motors, you know, on Monday morning somebody will buy your 100 shares or sell you another 100 shares at exactly the same price.
而且这种事一周会持续，我也不知道，五天。
And that goes on, I don't know, 5 days a week.
呃，但你就想象一下，如果你买农场的时候也有个农民天天这么干。
Uh, but just imagine if you had a farmer doing that.
你买农场的时候，你看的其实是这块农场能产出什么。
When you bought the farm, you looked at what the farm would produce.
你脑子里想的是这个。
That was what went through your mind.
你会对自己说，我现在是按每英亩 X 美元的价格在买。
You're saying to yourself, I'm paying X dollars per acre.
我觉得平均下来，我能收获多少蒲式耳的玉米，或者大豆。
I think I'll get so many bushels of corn or soybeans on average.
有些年份会很好，有些年份会很差。
Some years good, some years bad.
有些年份价格会很好，有些年份价格会很差，诸如此类。
Some years the price will be good, some years the price will be bad, etc.
但你考虑的是这块农场的潜力。
But you think about the potential of the farm.
可现在呢，你碰上这么个傻子，呃，在你旁边买了个农场，而且更夸张的是，他还有点躁郁，爱喝酒，也许还抽点大麻。
And now you get this idiot that, uh, buys a farm next to you, and, and on top of that, he's sort of a manic depressive and drinks, maybe smokes a little pot.
所以他报出来的数字就到处乱跳。
So his numbers just go all over the place.
呃，这时候你唯一要做的，就是记住，隔壁这个家伙的存在是为你服务的，不是来指导你的。
Uh, now the only thing you have to do is to remember that this guy next door is there to serve you and not to instruct you.
你当初买这个农场，是因为你觉得这个农场，呃，是有潜力的。
You bought the farm because you thought the farm was, uh, had the potential.
你其实根本不需要别人天天给它报价。
You don't really need a quote on it.
呃，你想啊，如果当年你是跟 John D. Rockefeller 或者 Andrew Carnegie 一起投，嗯，而且从来没有什么报价——当然后来是有报价了——但基本上，呃，你买进去的是那个生意本身。
Uh, you know, if you bought in with John D. Rockefeller or Andrew Carnegie, and, um, and there were never any quotes—well, there were quotes later on, but, but basically, uh, you bought into the business.
你买股票的时候，做的其实也是这件事。
And that's what you're doing when you buy stocks.
只是你还多了一个额外的好处：你确实有这么一个邻居，而且你完全没义务听他的，但他每天都会给你一个价格。
But you get this added advantage that you do have this neighbor who you're not obliged to listen to at all, who is going to give you a price every day.
而且他会有状态好的时候，也会有状态不好的时候。也许他会报一个他愿意买入的价格，那样的话，如果你想卖，你就可以卖。
And he's going to have his ups and downs, and maybe he'll name a selling price that he'll buy at, in which case you sell if you want to.
嗯，或者他也可能报一个非常低的价格，那你就可以从他手里把他的农场买下来。
Uh, or maybe he'll name a very low price and you'll, you'll buy his farm from him.
嗯，不过你没有这个必要。
Uh, but you don't have to.
而且你也不想把自己放到一种非得这么做不可的处境里。
And you don't want to put yourself in a position to where you have to.
所以，股票有一个巨大的内在优势，就是总有人不停地冲你喊价格，但很多人反而把这一点变成了劣势。
So stocks have this enormous inherent advantage of people yelling out prices all the time to you, and many people turn that into a disadvantage.
当然，也有很多人会用各种方式从中赚钱。他们会告诉你，他们能判断这个农民明天会喊出什么价格，或者你隔壁那个农民明天、下周、下个月会喊什么价。
And of course, many people can profit in one way or another from telling, telling you that they can tell you what this farmer is going to yell out tomorrow or what your neighboring farmer's gonna yell tomorrow or next week or next month.
这里面的钱太多了。
There's huge money in it.
所以人们会告诉你，这很重要，他们知道答案，而且你应该非常重视他们对于价格变动的看法。
So people tell you that it's important and they know, and that you should pay a lot of attention to their thoughts about what price changes should be.
或者你自己也会告诉自己，这里面应该有某种巨大的差别。
Or you tell yourself that there should be this great difference.
但事实是，如果在病毒出现之前，你持有的就是你喜欢的那些企业，
But the truth is, if you owned the businesses you liked prior to the virus arriving.
嗯，嗯，它会改变价格，也会带来变化，嗯，但没有人逼你卖掉。
Uh, uh, it changes prices and it changes, uh, but nobody's forcing you to sell.
如果你真的喜欢这个企业，也喜欢你所合作的管理层，而且这个企业的基本面并没有发生变化——我待会儿在汇报 Berkshire 的时候会稍微讲一点，我很快就会讲，我保证——嗯，那个，嗯，股票是有巨大优势的，你依然可以押注 America。但前提是，你得愿意、也得有这样的判断能力，能够独立决定你想持有 America 的一篮子企业，因为我觉得大多数人其实并不适合去挑单只股票。
And if you really like the business and you like the management you're in with and the business hasn't fundamentally changed—and I'll get to that a little when I report on Berkshire, uh, which I will soon, I promise—uh, the, uh, uh, stocks have an enormous advantage, and you still can bet on America, but you can't bet unless you're willing and have an outlook, uh, to independently decide that you want to own a cross-section of America, because I don't think most people are in a position to pick single stocks.
嗯，嗯，也许有少数人可以，但总体来说，我觉得对大多数人更好的做法，是买下 America 的一篮子企业，然后就别再管它了。
Uh, uh, a few maybe, but, but on balance, I think people are much better off buying a cross-section of America and just forgetting about it.
如果你当初这么做了，如果我大学毕业的时候这么做了，那我只需要这么做，就能拿到一百比一的回报，而且上面还能继续拿股息，嗯，而股息还会不断增长。
If you'd done that, if I'd done that when I got out of college, it's all I had to do to make 100 for 1 and then collect dividends on top of it, uh, which increased.