2013年股东大会 · 你到底应该买个股还是指数基金？ — 文稿

M10:00

Derek Foster，来自 Canada 的 Ottawa。

Derek Foster, Ottawa, Canada.

首先，Warren，谢谢你分享这么多信息。

First of all, thank you, Warren, for sharing all your information.

你改变了我的人生。

You've changed my life.

我大学学过金融，看不懂那些天书一样的公式，不过现在我已经能相当不错地投资了。

I took finance in university, couldn't understand Greek formulas, but now I can invest reasonably well.

我想问你的是，过去你说过，对投资者来说，应该就是——对百分之九十九的投资者来说，应该就是把钱投进指数基金，然后放着不管，别操心。

My question to you is, in the past, you've said, for an investor, you should simply—for 99% of investors, you should simply stick money in an index fund and let it go and don't worry about it.

至于那百分之一的投资者，就挑你最看好的五只股票，把相当大一笔钱投进去。

Those 1% of investors, choose your best 5 stocks and put a substantial amount of money in it.

我就在想，那如果采用一种策略，比如买入 America 最好的二十只股票，你知道，像 Procter & Gamble、Coca-Cola、Johnson & Johnson 之类的，不管怎么说，就是那些已经存在了上百年，或者几十年，或者很久很久的公司，然后就一直拿着不动，怎么样？

I'm just wondering, how about a strategy of perhaps buying 20 of the best stocks in America, you know, Procter & Gamble, Coca-Cola, Johnson & Johnson, whatever, the companies that have been around for centuries, or a century, or decades, or whatever, and just leaving it at that?

你觉得这样长期来看，会跑赢指数基金吗？

Do you think that would outperform an index fund over the long term?

我也想听听 Charlie 的看法。

And I want Charlie's opinion as well.

M20:52

嗯，这个有点——我不太确定你说的是不是那二十家最大的公司。

Well, it's a little bit of—I don't know whether you're saying the 20 largest companies.

如果说是最好的二十家——不同的人，对到底是哪二十家，可能会有不同看法。

The 20 best might—you might get different thoughts from different people on which they are.

但我觉得，你挑出来的那二十家——大概率会和指数基金的结果几乎差不多。

But I think you would—probably the 20 you would pick would virtually match the results of an index fund.

到底哪些才会是最好的，谁也说不准。

Who knows exactly which ones would be the best?

但真正的区别，Graham 在他的书里其实讲过，基本上就是这两类人之间的区别：一种人愿意花相当多的时间，让自己在企业分析上变得有点像专家，因为股票本质上就是企业；另一种人则会忙于别的职业，但也想持有股票，而且实际上也完全可以通过股票获得不错的回报。

But the real distinction, and Graham made this in his book, basically is between the person who is going to spend an appreciable amount of time becoming something of an expert on businesses, because that's what stocks are, or the person who is going to be busy with another profession, wants to own equities, and actually will do very well in equities.

但他们真正的问题在于，他们往往会在错误的时间点对股票感到兴奋。

But the real problem they have is that they may tend to get excited about stocks at the wrong time.

你知道，长期买指数基金这个想法，不是为了在对的时间买到股票，或者买到对的股票，而是为了避免在错的时间买、买错的股票。

You know, they really—the idea of buying an index fund over time is not to buy stocks at the right time or the right stocks, it's to avoid buying them at the wrong time, the wrong stocks.

所以，股票长期来看会表现不错，而你只需要避免——你知道——别在别人兴奋的时候自己也跟着兴奋，或者别人开始追捧某些行业时，你也跟着激动。

So, equities will do well over time, and you just have to avoid getting, you know, getting excited when other people are excited, or getting excited about certain industries when other people are.

不要在自己并没有投入那个时间、也没有带着成为专业人士所需要的东西进入这个领域的时候，却硬要表现得像个专业投资人。

Trying to behave like a professional when you aren't spending the time and bringing what's needed to the game to be a professional.

如果你是个业余投资者，这并没有什么不对。

And if you're an amateur investor, there's nothing wrong with being an amateur investor.

而且你其实就有一条非常合乎逻辑、也能赚钱的路径可以走，那就是用广泛分散的方式买入 American business，然后随着时间持续把钱投进去。

And you just simply—you've got a very logical, profitable course of action available to you, and that is simply to buy into American business in a broadly diversified way and put your money in over time.

所以我的看法是，你那二十只股票大概率会和指数基金表现差不多，你这么做可能也会赚得不错，而投指数基金你也会做得不错。

So I would say your group of 20 will probably match an index fund, and you'll probably do well in that, and you will do well in an index fund.

Charlie 呢？

Charlie?

嗯，我没什么要补充的，不过我确实认为，清楚自己能力圈的边界，非常重要。

Well, I've got nothing to add, but I do think it's—that knowing the edge of your own competency is very important.

如果你以为自己懂得比实际多得多，那你就是在给自己找大麻烦。

If you think you know a lot more than you do, well, you're really asking for a lot of trouble.

对，而且这在投资之外也一样适用。

Yeah, and that's true outside of investments too.

在婚姻里尤其管用。

Works particularly well in matrimony.

你还想就这个再给点别的建议吗？

Do you want to give any other advice on this?