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1999年股东大会 · 巴菲特首次在股东会上被问及对投资中国公司的看法

19 段 · 2 位说话人 · 原片 2:23
M1
M10:00

大家早上好。

Good morning.

我叫 Matt Haverty。

My name is Matt Haverty.

我来自 Kansas City。

I'm from Kansas City.

二十年前,China 在自己的国境内放开了资本主义。

20 years ago, China unleashed capitalism within its borders.

从那以后,我相信它从这种经济制度中获得的好处,比历史上任何一个大国都更多。

Since then, I believe it has benefited more from that economic system than any major country in history.

我也相信,这股势头再加上 China 的体量和人口结构,会让它在未来几十年里成为全世界最肥沃的经济环境。

I also believe that this momentum combined with China's size and demographics will make it the most fertile economic environment in the world during the next few decades.

尽管如此,还是有很多 Chinese 公司,业务简单易懂,而且在这个十年里销售额每年增长百分之二十,却只按去年盈利的五倍、甚至更低的估值在交易。

Nonetheless, there are many Chinese companies with easy-to-understand businesses and 20% per annum sales growth this decade, trading at 5 times or less last year's earnings.

你怎么评估直接投资 Chinese 公司的风险和回报?

What is your assessment of the risk-reward of investing directly in Chinese companies?
M2
M20:43

这个嘛,我对它们了解没那么多,但是我——但是当然,如果我能买到这样的公司:净资产收益率有百分之二十,而且看起来——有希望能够继续做到这一点,同时还能把大部分资本继续投入进去;再加上它们只卖五倍市盈率,而且我对它们盈利的质量也有信心。

Well, I don't know that much about them, but I— but certainly if I could buy companies that were earning 20% on equity and had promises— gave promise of being able to continue to do that while reemploying most of the capital, and they were selling at 5 times earnings, and I felt good about the quality of the earnings.

我的猜测是,这样的公司——就你刚才说的那些符合这些条件的公司来说——适合 Berkshire 有利润地参与的,规模可能不会太大。

My guess is that it's not a large— in terms of the ones that meet those tests you named— for Berkshire to profitably participate.

至于你能不能从 U.S. 买到所有这些公司,我觉得这里面会有很多——很可能会有很多问题。

And whether you could buy all of those companies from the U.S., I think there'd be a lot of— there could well be a lot of problems in that.

不过我要说的是,任何时候,只要你能买到好企业,真正好的企业——我们对好企业的定义是,资本回报率高的企业——而且只要五倍市盈率,你又相信它盈利的质量,并且它还能把其中相当大一部分盈利继续以额外百分之二十的回报率再投资进去,那么你知道,如果你这个判断是对的,你就会赚很多钱。

But I would say anytime you can buy good businesses, really good businesses, which we define as businesses earn high returns on capital, at 5 times earnings, and you believe in the quality of the earnings, and they can reemploy a significant portion of those earnings additionally at the 20% rate, you know, you will make a lot of money if you're right in your assessment on that.

Charlie?

Charlie?
M1
M11:36

对,我对 China 也不太了解。

Yeah, I don't know much about China.
M2
M21:42

但这绝不是在以任何方式贬低它,因为那样的领域里很可能确实有机会。

But that is not to knock it in any way, shape, or form, because there could well be opportunities in areas like that.

如果你能识别出那类企业,我们自己会很难识别出那些企业,但这并不意味着你——或者其他那些对当地经济熟悉得多的人——也会有困难。

If you can identify those kind of businesses, we would have trouble identifying those businesses ourselves, but that doesn't mean that, you know, you will have trouble or other people that are much more familiar with the economy there would have trouble.

所以,我鼓励你去看你自己更有专长的领域,像这种情况,如果你说的那些条件确实存在,而且你又能找对公司,那你会做得好得多。

So I encourage you to look at your own area of expertise in something like that, and you'll do much better if the conditions you describe exist and you can identify the right company.

在我看来,那样的话,你会比在 American 市场里做得好得多。

You will do much better in that than you will in American markets, in my view.

就这些。

That's all.