M1
M10:00
来自日本东京的 Chris Yu。
Chris Yu from Tokyo, Japan.
你能不能再多讲一点关于投资 IBM 这件事？
Can you talk a little bit more about the IBM investment?
你觉得这家公司护城河在哪里？
Where do you see the moat for that business?
顺便完整披露一下，我是在 Microsoft 工作的。
And just in the spirit of full disclosure, I work for Microsoft.
对，你的问题是——你刚才问的是——哪家公司的护城河？
Yeah, was your question— what was your— the moat around which business?
IBM。
IBM.
哦，IBM。
Oh, IBM.
嗯，我会说，我对 IBM 护城河的理解，没有我对 Coca-Cola 护城河的理解那么深。
Well, I would say that I do not understand the moat around an IBM as well as I understand the moat around a Coca-Cola.
我觉得我对它是有一些理解的，但要说信心的话，不管是 Coca-Cola、Wrigley，还是 Heinz，它们的护城河都比 IBM 更让我有把握。
I think I have some understanding of it, but I feel I would have more conviction about the moat around a Coca-Cola or a Wrigley or a Heinz, for that matter, than an IBM.
不过，我对 IBM 的感觉已经足够好了，所以我们在它上面投了相当大的一笔钱。
But I feel good enough about IBM that we put a considerable amount of money in it.
而且，没有任何事情会妨碍你刚才提到的 Microsoft 和 IBM 同时取得成功。
And there's nothing that precludes both Microsoft, which you mentioned, and IBM being successful.
事实上，我希望它们两家都成功。
In fact, I hope they both are.
我们对 IBM 所处位置的判断有足够的信心，所以我们建了一个非常大的仓位。
We have got enough conviction about IBM's position that we took a very large position.
我喜欢他们的财务政策。
I like their financial policies.
我觉得，他们长期维持强势地位的概率是很高的，但我对这一点的信心程度并没有那么高。
I think the odds are good that their position is maintained in a strong way over time, but I don't feel the same degree of conviction about that.
不像我对 BNSF Railroad 那样有把握。
As I do about the BNSF Railroad.
我的意思是，你知道，对我来说，很难想出 BNSF 会出什么岔子。
I mean, you know, it's very hard for me to think of anything that can go wrong with BNSF.
但 IBM 可能出问题的地方，我是能想到一些的。
I can think of some things that can go wrong with IBM.
顺便说一句，他们还有一笔非常大的养老金义务。
They incidentally have a very large pension obligation.
当然，他们也有一个很大的养老金基金，但你说的是七百五十亿到八百亿美元规模的资产和负债。你知道，这相当于旁边还带着一家很大的年金公司，而在年金这个领域，事情的发展有时候会很出人意料。
Now, they have a large pension fund too, but you're talking $75 or $80 billion of assets and liabilities that, you know, is a big— it is a big annuity company on the side, and you can have— balls can take funny bounces in the annuity field.
我宁可他们没有这个问题，但这是我买入时会纳入考虑的一个事实。
I would rather they didn't have that, but that is a fact that I take into consideration when I buy.
他们账上显示资产和负债大致相等，但长期来看，负债要比资产确定得多。
They show the assets and liabilities as being roughly equal, but the liabilities are a lot more certain than the assets over time.
Charlie？
Charlie?