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2010年股东大会 · 巴菲特:我身体倍儿棒,不着急找接班人

36 段 · 3 位说话人 · 原片 4:04
F1
F10:00

Berkshire 这个 CIO 职位的四位潜在人选,在二零零八年和二零零九年这两年里的表现怎么样?

How did the 4 potential candidates for Berkshire's CIO position perform over the course of 2008 and 2009?

这四个人里有没有谁用了杠杆?现在这四个人里有没有谁已经被排除在考虑范围之外了?

Did any of the 4 employ leverage, and have any of the 4 now been excluded from consideration?
M1
M10:13

有,关于这个问题,答案是二零零八年——我去年跟你们汇报过,他们当时没有。

Yes, the answer to that is that in 2008— I reported to you last year that they didn't.

我记得我们去年好像也被问过类似的问题。

I think we got a question like that last year.

他们当时并没有表现得特别出色。

They did not distinguish themselves.

到了二零零九年,他们的表现就相当相当不错。

In 2009, they did pretty darn well.

这个,这个不——我想说的是,这四个人,现在已经不是同样那四个人了。

It's, it's not— I would say that the 4, it's not the same 4.

我会说,他们里面应该没有任何一个人——Charlie,我想——会使用杠杆,完全不用杠杆。

I would say that none of them, Charlie, I believe, may use leverage at all.

你也这么觉得吗?

Do you think so?
M2
M20:42

嗯,我最熟悉的那一位,在杠杆为零的情况下,收益稍微超过了百分之两百。

Well, the one with which I'm most familiar made a little over 200% using leverage of zero.
M1
M10:48

哦,那范围就缩小了。

Well, that narrows it down.

我们——那些潜在的投资负责人,呃,那份名单的变动幅度,会比——大概会比 CEO 接班这件事——呃,更频繁一些,而且这件事其实没那么紧迫。

We— that the potential investment people, uh, that, that list will be subject to more movement around than the— probably the— than the CEO, uh, succession, uh, and it's really far less urgent.

如果我今晚就死了——那——会马上有一位新的 CEO 到位。

If I die tonight, the— there will be a new CEO in place.

在 Berkshire,二十四小时之内就会到位,而且所有董事都知道那个人会是谁,他们也都对此很放心。

In Berkshire within 24 hours, and all the directors know who it would be, and they're all comfortable with it.

我的意思是——那——总之,二十四小时之内就应该有人接上。

I mean, that— and there should be somebody in place within 24 hours.

至于投资这块,下周并不需要立刻做什么事。

The investments, they don't need anything done next week.

投资这事上,我完全可以去度假;就算我们——当然我们不会这么做,董事们也不会这么做,我那时也不在了——但他们可以等一个月,也可以等两个月。

I can go on vacation on investments, and we could go— if we wouldn't do it, the directors wouldn't do it, I won't be there, but they could wait a month, they could wait 2 months.

我的意思是,Coca-Cola 不会消失,Procter & Gamble 不会消失,American Express 也不会消失。

I mean, the Coca-Cola isn't going to go away, Procter & Gamble's not going away, American Express.

没什么特别大的必要非得天天做决定。

There's no great need to be doing things day by day.

我们本来也不是天天在做这些事。

We don't do things day by day.

所以他们可以比较从容地来敲定这件事,可能会和新的 CEO 一起商量,他们想引进谁,想怎么给他们薪酬,具体数字大概是多少。

So they can be fairly leisurely in working out, probably in conjunction with the new CEO, who they would like to bring in, how they would like to compensate them, what, what the number might be.

这些都完全不是一成不变、板上钉钉的。

That, that is not fixed in, in, in stone at all.

呃,呃,有一点我可以告诉你们,就是有一些能力非常强的人,我觉得他们会非常愿意为 Berkshire 管钱,也会干得很好,而且至少有一些董事是认识他们、了解他们的。

Uh, uh, the one thing I can tell you is that there's some very able people who would like very much, I think, to be managing money for Berkshire and who would do a good job and who are familiar to at least some of the directors.

这个问题是能解决的。

And that problem would get solved.

CEO 这个问题——其实也不能算问题——但关于 CEO 这个人选,你们是希望现在就有答案的,而且你们也希望做好准备,第二天就能执行。

The CEO problem, which is not a problem, but the CEO question you want an answer for right now, and you want to be prepared to implement it, you know, the next day.

不过我刚做过一次体检,结果挺好。

Although I did just have a physical, came out fine.
M2
M22:52

Charlie?

Charlie?
M1
M12:58

我的医生今天不在这儿,所以我就直说了,我现在这样吃东西,真的把他快逼疯了,可他偏偏又查不出我有什么毛病。

My doctor isn't here today, so I'll tell you, it drives him nuts because I eat like I do, and I— and he can't find anything wrong.

他可真想查出点什么来,相信我。

He wants to, believe me.

那接下来——

And with that—.
M2
M23:09

我不是坐在这儿的两个人里最乐观的那一个,但即便这样,我还是相当乐观地相信,Berkshire 的文化会延续非常非常久,而且会远远长过创始人的生命。

I am not the most optimistic of the two people up here, and yet I'm quite optimistic that the culture of Berkshire will last a long, long time and will outlast greatly the life of the founder.

我觉得这是行得通的。

I think it's going to work.
M1
M13:36

我真的这么觉得——我是说,我们不该老用这种最高级的说法,但我觉得,就管理层、所有权结构,还有整体方方面面来说,我们拥有的这种文化,在全国所有真正的大公司里,都是最强之一、也最有辨识度之一。

I really think— I mean, we shouldn't be getting into superlatives, but I think we have as strong a culture and as distinctive a culture in terms of managers, ownership, the whole works, of any really large company in the country.

而且这种文化花了很长时间才慢慢建立起来,但发展到某个阶段之后,它就会自我强化。

And it's taken a long time to develop, but it becomes self-reinforcing after a point.

而且我们很喜欢它,我觉得等我不在了,他们也会喜欢它。

And we love it, and I think they'll love it after I'm gone.

这儿就别鼓掌了。

Don't clap there.