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2012年股东大会 · 什么是合理的股票回购价格?

40 段 · 2 位说话人 · 原片 3:57
M1
M10:00

谢谢。

Thank you.

我的问题也是关于股票回购。

My question is also on share buybacks.

Warren,你在去年的年度信里说,过去四十年里,Berkshire 没有拿出一分钱现金用于分红或者股票回购。

Warren, in last year's annual letter, you said not a dime of cash has left Berkshire for dividends or share repurchases during the past 40 years.

到了二零一一年,Berkshire 改变了方向,宣布授权进行股票回购。

In 2011, Berkshire changed course and announced a share repurchase authorization.

我想重点问的是,基于持续强劲的盈利能力,Berkshire 在股票回购方面的能力到底有多大?

What I'd like to focus in on is what is Berkshire's capacity for share buybacks based on continued strong earnings power?

跟收购相比,把多余资本用来做股票回购的吸引力有多大,哪怕价格高于账面价值的一点一倍呢?

How attractive is deploying excess capital in share buybacks compared to acquisitions, even above 1.1 times book value?

还有,你们目前对设立股东分红最新的看法是什么?

And what are your latest thoughts on instituting a shareholder dividend?
M2
M20:37

对,一点一倍这个数字,是我们觉得非常安心、非常舒服的一个水平。

Yeah, the 1.1 is a figure that we feel very comfortable with.

所以呢,比这个再高一点的数字,我们大概也会觉得可以接受,但我们做回购的时候,一定要是在明显、或者说非常显著被低估的情况下。

So we would probably feel comfortable with a figure somewhat higher than that, but we want it to be dramatically or very significantly undervalued, uh, to do buybacks.

而且我们也希望非常确定,任何卖给我们的股东都知道,我们这么做的时候,是认为这只股票被明显低估了,或者说被显著低估了。

Uh, and we want to be very sure that every shareholder that sells to us knows that we think that it's dramatically under- or significantly undervalued when we do it.

不过,我们手里有一组非常棒的企业。

Uh, but we have a terrific group of businesses.

我们持有的那些 marketable securities,我们觉得未来会更值钱,但在账上我们记的是它们今天的市场价格。

The marketable securities that we own, we think are going to be worth more in the future, but we carry them at what they're selling for today.

所以它们不是——你可以说,在资产负债表上,那不算是被低估的项目。

So they're not— that's not an undervalued item, you know, in the balance sheet.

但是我们拥有的一些企业,实际价值远远高于我们账面上记录的金额。

But some of the businesses we own are worth far more money than we carry them at.

而且我们没有任何一家重要业务,它的价值会比账面价值低很多。

And we have no significant business that's worth any significant discount from the carrying value.

所以单从赚钱这个角度来看,我们非常乐意回购价值几十亿、几十亿、再几十亿美元的股票。

So we would, from strictly a money-making viewpoint, we would love to buy billions and billions and billions of dollars worth of stock.

按——我们甚至可以把这个数字提高到几百亿美元,呃,按账面价值的一点一倍来买。

At— and we'll move that up to tens of billions, uh, at 110% of book.

你知道,我觉得这种情况不一定会发生,但确实有可能发生。

You know, I don't think it'll happen, but it could happen.

你永远不知道你会碰上什么样的市场。

You'd never know what kind of a market you'll run into.

如果我们有机会这么做,只要不会让我们的现金头寸降到两百亿美元以下,我们就会——我们会在这个价格上非常积极地买。

And if we, if we get the chance to do it, as long as we don't take our cash position below $20 billion, we, we will— we would buy it very aggressively at that price.

我们知道,这样是在为留下来的股东创造相当可观的收益。

We know we're making significant money for remaining shareholders.

当我们按账面价值的一点一倍回购时,每股价值会上升。

The value per share goes up when we buy at 110% of book.

所以,这对我们来说是非常明显的,如果有这个机会,而且不会把我们的现金头寸压到低于让我们安心的水平,我们就会大规模去做。

And therefore, and it's so obvious to us that we would do it on a big scale if given the chance to, and if it did not take our cash position down below a level that leaves us comfortable.

Charlie?

Charlie?

嗯,有些人回购自家股票,是不管价格的。

Well, some people buy their own stock back regardless of price.

那不是我们的做法。

That's not our system.

嗯,我们认为——我们觉得很多股票回购都很愚蠢。

Well, we think it's— we think a lot of the stock share repurchases are idiotic.

我的意思是,对,我刚才其实是想说得更委婉一点。

I mean, yeah, I was trying to say that more gently.

你们以前从来没这么做过。

You've never done it before.

他们啊,呃,这——我的意思是,这就是出于自我膨胀。

They, uh, it's— I mean, it's for ego.

这个,呃,呃,我参加过很多董事会会议,在那些会上,嗯,都会投票通过股票回购授权。我可以向你保证,那绝不是因为 CEO 的想法跟我们一样。

It, uh, uh, I've been in a lot of boardrooms where, where, um, share repurchase authorizations have been voted, and, and I will guarantee you it's not because the CEO is thinking the way we think at all.

他们更喜欢在股价高的时候回购自家股票,也更喜欢在股价低的时候发放期权。

They like buying their stock better at higher prices, and they like issuing options at lower prices.

你知道,这跟我们的思路正好完全相反。

You know, it's just exactly the opposite of the way we would think.

我们这么做只有一个原因,那就是在我们做完之后的第二天,就能提升每股价值。

We will only do it for one reason, and that's to increase the per-share value the day after we've done it.

如果我们有机会在这两方面都做到,你知道,就是用很大的规模去做,那我们就会大规模去做。

If we get a chance to do that with both, you know, with—in a big way, we'll do it in a big way.

我不——如果纯粹站在一个搞财务的人的角度来说,我会希望我们有机会大量这么做。

I don't— strictly operating as a financial guy, I would hope we'd get a chance to do a lot of it.

但如果我是作为几十万人的受托人来运作,我并不希望看到他们卖出。

Operating as a fiduciary for hundreds of thousands of people, I don't want to see them sell.

对,我们希望这种机会永远不要出现。

Yeah, we hope the opportunity never comes.

对,但如果真的出现了,我们会抓住。

Yeah, but if it does, we'll grab it.

好,二号麦克风的股东。

Okay, station 2 shareholder.