2006年股东大会 · 巴菲特：保险业与赌博业的区别 — 文稿

F10:00

大家好，我是来自英国伦敦的 Peter Webb。

Hi, it's Peter Webb here from London, UK.

你对赌博的看法大家都很清楚了，而且我想大多数人都会同意，赌博主要是给那些财务状况比较吃紧的人玩的。

Your views on gambling are well known, and I think most people would agree that gambling is for the fiscally challenged.

但是当我看保险行业的时候，我看到的是一个行业——我都不知道该怎么说。

But when I look at the insurance industry, what I see is an industry— I can't even say it.

我看到的是一个建立在概率之上的行业，而人们并不知道那些真实的概率是多少。

I see an industry that's based upon probabilities and people not knowing those true probabilities.

然后庄家以和赌博市场里差不多的方式赚钱。

And money being made for the house in the same way as you see in a gambling market.

所以我想问你的是，你怎么协调你对赌博的看法，和你对保险行业的看法？

So the question that I have for you is, how do you reconcile your views with gambling versus the insurance industry?

还有，保险业是不是也是给那些财务状况比较吃紧的人准备的？

And is the insurance industry for the fiscally challenged?

M10:41

嗯，赌博，我觉得，通常大家做的区分是，赌博是在制造本来没必要被制造出来的风险。

Well, gambling, I think, I think the distinction that usually is made is that gambling involves creating risks that don't need to be created.

我是说，如果你跑去赌一个小球会落在一个正在转动的轮盘的什么位置上，这就不是——这就是一种被人为制造出来的风险。

I mean, if you want to go out and gamble on whether— where a little ball is going to fall on a wheel that's revolving, that is not something that— that is a created risk.

但如果你有一栋房子，或者一家企业，在沿海地区，呃，那这个风险本来就在那里。

Whereas if you've got a home or a business, you know, in a coastal area, uh, the risk is there.

它不是被有意创造出来的。

It wasn't created intentionally.

当然，你也可以说是你把房子建在那个地方，不过——然后问题就变成，谁来承担这个风险？

I mean, you can say you build in that place, but— And then the question is, who bears it?

所以，比如在巨灾保险 coverage 这种情况下，转移的是本来就存在的巨大风险，而不是去创造一种并不需要的风险。

So there's a transfer of, in the case of cat coverage, large existing risks as opposed to the creation of a risk that, that, that is not required.

我是说，你可以看一场 football 比赛而不下注，但你没法住在 Florida 海岸边的一栋房子里，却完全不承担你全部投资一下子化为乌有的风险。

I mean, you can, you can watch a football game without, without betting on it, but you can't live in a house, you know, on, on a Florida coast without, without having a risk that your entire investment disappears.

所以，基本上的区别就在这里。

So that, that's the distinction, basically.

我希望你说得对，也就是两种情况下都是庄家赢。

I hope you're right that the house wins in both cases.

Charlie 呢？

And Charlie?

M22:02

嗯，我觉得我也没什么可补充的。

Well, I don't think I can add to that either.

庄家优势这个概念，在现代商业里，是个非常有意思的概念。

The whole concept of the house advantage is a very interesting one in, in, in modern commerce.

很多投资管理业务，过去通常不会用赌场荷官那套说法来形容，但现在很多 private equity 投资，已经可以这么说了。

A lot of the investment management operations, which were not ordinarily spoken of in the past in croupier terms, but the terms of a lot of private equity investment now.

我觉得那些 partnership 的管理人拿走的庄家优势，看起来很像 Monte Carlo 里荷官抽的 rake，只不过还更大。

I think the proprietors of the partnerships are taking a house edge that looks a lot like the rake of the croupier in Monte Carlo, except it's bigger.

M12:45

我们还有谁忘了挖苦吗？

Is there anyone we've forgotten to insult?

我想确认一下，别漏掉任何一个。

I want to make sure we don't miss anyone here.

7号。

Number 7.