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1994年股东大会 · 为何巴菲特愿意投资完全没有增长的公司?

24 段 · 3 位说话人 · 原片 2:22
M1
M10:01

我是来自 Kansas City 的 Howard Baskin。

I'm Howard Baskin from Kansas City.

当你在估算一家公司的增长率,而且这还是一家非常可预测的公司时,我想你会给它留出很大的安全边际。

When you are estimating a growth rate on a company, and at a very predictable company, I imagine you apply a big margin of safety to it.

你通常会用一个什么样的比率?

What kind of rate do you generally apply?

我的意思是,个位数偏高的增长吗?

I mean, high single digits?
M2
M20:20

是在安全边际里,还是在那个——

In the margin of safety, or the—
M1
M10:22

对于一家可预测的公司,你会假设它的增长率大概是多少?

What kind of growth rate would you, on a predictable company, might you say you have?
M2
M20:26

我们愿意买入那种完全不会增长的公司。

We are willing to buy companies that aren't going to grow at all.

好。

Okay.

前提是我们出这笔钱的时候,能拿到足够的回报。

Assuming we get enough for our money when we, when we do it.

所以,我们并不是在找增长,我们是在把数字往后推,看看随着时间推移,我们觉得能收回多少现金。

So it, it, we are not looking, we are looking at projecting numbers out as to what kind of cash we think we'll get back over time.

不过,你想想看,如果你要把一百万美元存进一个储蓄账户,你是更愿意要一个每年给你百分之十、而且永远不变的东西,还是更愿意要一个每年给你百分之二、但每年按百分之十增长的东西?

But, you know, would you rather have a savings—if you're going to put $1 million in a savings account, would you rather have something that paid you 10% a year and never changed, or would you rather have something that paid you 2% a year and increased at 10% a year?

这个问题你可以把账算一算,答案就出来了。但很明显,完全没有增长的企业,也完全可能比一家会以非常高速度增长的公司更值得投资,尤其是如果那家公司为了增长还需要不断投入资本的话。

Well, you can, you can work out the math to answer those questions, but you can, you can certainly have a situation where there's absolutely no growth in a business and it's a much better investment than some company that's going to grow at very substantial rates, particularly if they're going to need capital in order to grow.

一种是会增长、但要靠大量资本才能增长的企业,另一种是会增长、却不需要资本的企业,这两者之间差别非常大。

There's a huge difference in the business that grows and requires a lot of capital to do so and the business that grows and doesn't require capital.

而我会说,一般来说,financial analysts 对这种差别给的权重并不够。

And I would say that generally financial analysts do not give adequate weight to the difference in those.

事实上,大家对这一点关注得之少,简直让人吃惊。

In fact, it's amazing how little attention is paid to that.

相信我,如果你在投资,你一定要非常重视这一点。

Believe me, if you're investing, you should pay a lot of attention to it.

Charlie?

Charlie?
M3
M31:38

我同意这一点,这个道理相当简单,但也没简单到一句话就能讲清楚。

I agree with that, but it's fairly simple, but it's not so simple it can all be explained in one sentence.
M2
M21:51

我们全资拥有的一些最好的企业,其实并不增长,但它们会源源不断地产生很多现金,我们可以拿这些钱去买别的东西。

Some of our best businesses that we own outright don't grow, but they, they throw off lots of money which we can use to buy something else.

所以,即使企业本身没有实体上的增长,我们的资本还是在增长。

And therefore, our capital is growing without physical growth being in the business.

跟那种企业自身在增长、但为了增长把所有钱都占住的生意相比,我们处在前一种情况要好得多。

And we are much better off being in that kind of a situation than being in some business that itself is growing, but it takes up all the money in order to grow.

而且那种生意在发展的过程中,回报率也没那么高。

And doesn't produce that high returns as we go along.

说实话,很多管理层其实并没有真正理解这一点。

A lot of managements don't understand that very well, actually.

Zone 1?

Zone 1?