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2010年股东大会 · 巴菲特:我对美国的未来很有信心,让我只投资美国公司也没问题

30 段 · 3 位说话人 · 原片 3:53
M1
M10:00

你觉得,相比其他国家,美国经济面临的最大挑战是什么?这对未来十年做全球投资又意味着什么?

What do you see as the biggest challenge facing the United States economy relative to other countries, and what are the implications of that with regard to investing globally over the next decade?
M2
M20:15

Charlie,谢谢你把这么个简单的问题丢给我。

Charlie, thank you for steering that easy problem to me.

我觉得答案是,基本上,我们这辈子能走到今天,靠的并不是什么高明的全球资产配置体系。

I think the answer to that is that by and large we haven't made our way in life by having great global allocation systems.

Berkshire 一贯的态度,通常是去找那些我们觉得合理、靠谱的东西,然后在这些事情上做一定程度的集中,至于全球经济怎么变化、全球汇率怎么波动,就让它们按自己的方式去波动。

Berkshire's attitude generally is to find things that seem sensible to us and to concentrate to some extent in those matters, and then let the world economy and the world's currency fluctuations fluctuate as they will.

我确实觉得,我们会偏好某些国家胜过另一些国家;一个国家看起来越负责任,我们就越安心。

I do think we'd prefer some countries to others, and the more responsible the countries seem, the more comfortable we are.

你同意吧?

Wouldn't you agree with that?
M3
M31:05

对,对。

Yeah, yeah.
M2
M21:07

但除此之外,我们也帮不了你太多,因为说实话,我们在 Berkshire 根本没有什么全球配置体系——除非 Warren 瞒着我偷偷有一套。

But beyond that, we can't help you very much because we really don't even—we don't have a global allocation system at Berkshire unless Warren is keeping it secret from me.
M3
M31:18

这个倒没有。

Not that one.

我们买 Burlington Northern,可不是想着把它搬到 China、India 或者 Brazil 去,我们就喜欢这一点。

We did not buy Burlington Northern with the idea of moving it to China or India or Brazil, and we love that.

我们喜欢 Burlington Northern 就在美国。

We love the fact that Burlington Northern is in the United States.

我是说,我们面临的最大威胁,是某种大规模的核攻击、化学攻击,或者生物攻击之类的事情。

I mean, the biggest threat we have is some kind of a massive nuclear, chemical, or biological attack of one sort or another.

你要是问,这种事在五十年的时间里发生的概率有多大?

And, you know, if you say, what are the probabilities of that over a 50-year period?

那是相当高的。

It's pretty high.

但如果放在一年的时间里看,概率就很低。

Over a 1-year period, it's very low.

但如果你说,是什么样的特质,造就了过去两百二十年那种惊人的进步——当然中间也有不少波折——但总体上,人类处境的改善是惊人的;拿我们经历过的这两个世纪,去跟历史上任何你想挑出来的两个世纪比,都是如此。

But if you talk about whether the qualities that have led to the last 220 years of incredible progress, with a lot of hiccups, but incredible progress, you know, in the status of mankind, that we've experienced in these 2 centuries compared to any 2 centuries you want to pick out in history.

这个国家很了不起,它的制度也很了不起,它确实释放了前所未见的人类潜能。

This country is remarkable, and its system is remarkable, and it does unleash human potential like has never been seen before.

在座这些人,并不比两百年前类似的一群人更聪明,也没比他们更勤奋,但天哪,他们的生活方式可完全不一样。

This crowd here is not smarter than a similar crowd 200 years ago, and they don't work harder, but boy, do they live differently.

而他们之所以活得不一样,是因为这个制度让相当普通的人,经过一段时间以后,能够做出非凡的事情,而这场游戏还远远没有结束。

And they live differently because this system has enabled fairly ordinary people over a period of time to do extraordinary things, and that game isn't over.

我的意思是,在我看来,没有任何迹象表明,我们已经接近人类能力的极限了。

I mean, there is nothing that says we have come close, in my view, to the limits of what humans can achieve.

说真的,我们大概并不了解自己的潜力,就像一七九零年的人并不了解他们自己的潜力一样。

We really probably don't even know our own potential any more than the people in 1790 knew their own potential.

我是说,他们当时觉得,要是终于有人发明出一种农具,能让他们每天工作十个小时而不是十二个小时,那就已经很了不起了。

I mean, they thought it would be great if somebody finally came along with some farm tool that let them work 10 hours a day instead of 12 hours a day.

所以没有理由——我是说,我希望世界其他地方都发展得好,而且我也觉得他们会发展得不错。

So there's no reason—I, you know, I hope the rest of the world does well, and I think they will do well.

这并不是零和游戏。

And it is not a zero-sum game.

如果 China 和 India 发展得好,并不意味着我们就会变差。

If China and India do well, that does not mean we do worse.

这甚至可能意味着我们会过得更好。

It may mean we do better.

所以,不是说他们得到什么,就是从我们这里拿走了什么。

So it's not what they get is taking it away from us.

不过,就算 Berkshire Hathaway 以某种方式被迫只能把投资限制在美国境内可获得的机会里,我也会完全满意;我们的机会仍然会很多。

But I would be perfectly content if Berkshire Hathaway were forced in some way to limit investment to the opportunities available in the United States; we would have plenty of opportunities.

当然了,从机会的角度讲,我还是更愿意拥有全世界这个范围,但在这个国家里,机会也会非常充足。

I'd rather have the whole world, obviously, in terms of opportunities, but there will be ample in this country.

总之,我不会逃离美国。

Well, I would not run from the United States.