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2015年股东大会 · 巴菲特承认的投资生涯最大的失败

40 段 · 2 位说话人 · 原片 3:30
M1
M10:07

大家好,我是 Leonid Sagalovsky。

Hello, I'm Leonid Sagalovsky.

我来自 Illinois 的 Chicago,还有 California 的 Berkeley。

I'm from Chicago, Illinois and Berkeley, California.

感谢你们给我这个机会来问这个问题。

I'd like to thank you for giving me the opportunity to ask this question.

这是我第一次来参加这个会议。

This is my first meeting.

我一般每五十年才来参加一次。

I tend to attend once every 50 years.

也感谢你们写的文章,感谢你们两位关于 Berkshire 的过去、现在和未来的那两篇文章。

And also for your essay on both of your essays on the past, present, and future of Berkshire.

在我们回顾过去五十年的时候,我想请问你们这个问题:你们最难忘的一次失败是什么?你们当时又是怎么应对的?

As we reflect on the last 50 years, I'd like to ask you this question: what was your most memorable failure, and how did you deal with it?

谢谢。

Thank you.
M2
M20:40

对,嗯,我们在年报里已经很多次谈到 Dexter 这件事了。那个,呃,回到九十年代中期,我看了一家位于 Maine 州 Dexter 的制鞋公司,然后决定花大概四亿美元去买一个注定几年后会归零的东西。

Yeah, well, we've discussed Dexter many times in the annual report, um, where I, uh, back in the mid-1990s, I looked at a shoe business in Dexter, Maine, and decided to pay $400 or so million for something that was destined to go to zero in a few years.

而我当时没看出来。

And I didn't figure that out.

更糟的是,我还是用股票来支付收购价的。我想那些股票现在大概值,我也不知道,可能六十亿到七十亿美元吧。

And then on top of that, I gave the purchase price in stock, and I guess that stock would be worth, I don't know, maybe $6 or $7 billion now.

股价跌的时候,我反而会觉得好受一点,因为这样我的愚蠢造成的代价就会小一点。

It makes me feel better when the stock goes down because the stupidity gets reduced.

在这件事上,没有任何人以任何方式误导我。

Nobody misled me on that in any way.

就是我自己看了之后,得出了错误的答案。

I just looked at it and came up with the wrong answer.

不过我得说,几乎每一次我们发行股票,基本上都是个错误。

But I would say almost any time we've issued shares, it's been a mistake.

你也这么觉得吧,Charlie?

Wouldn't you say that, Charlie?

当然。

Of course.

对,所以我们现在也不太这么做了。

Yeah, we don't do it much anymore.

对。

No.

我们以前本来也许可以更积极一点,尤其是在早些年。

We probably could have pushed harder, particularly in the earlier years.

我们一直——怎么说呢——我们把自己的全部净资产都放在公司里了。

We've always been—well, we've had all of our own net worth in the company.

我们家人的全部净资产也都在里面,还有很多从我们 partnership 时期一路过来的朋友,他们当中很多人把自己一半甚至更多的净资产都交给了我们。

We've had all our family's net worth, and we've had all these friends that came out of our partnership, many of whom put half or more of their net worth with us.

所以我们做事一直都非常、非常、非常谨慎。

And so we've been very, very, very cautious in what we've done.

回头看,可能确实有些时候我们本来可以稍微伸一伸手,做成一些相当大的交易,而我们却判断错了。

And there probably were times when we could have stretched a little and pulled off something quite large that we made a mistake looking back.

但我可不愿意冒哪怕百分之一的风险,去让像我 Aunt Katie 那样的人把全部身家赔光。

But I wouldn't want to take a 1% chance of wiping out my Aunt Katie's net worth or something.

那种事,是我这辈子都没法接受的。

It's just not something in life that I could live with.

所以,我宁可谨慎过头一百倍,也不愿意有百分之一的不够谨慎。

So, I would rather be, you know, 100 times too cautious than 1% too incautious.

只要我还在,这一点就不会变。

And that will continue as long as I'm around.

不过,回头看我们过去的人会说,我们错过了一些很大的机会。那些机会其实我们是看懂了的,而且如果我们愿意借更多钱去做,本来是可以出手的。

But people looking at our past would say that we missed some big opportunities that we understood and could have swung if we'd wanted to go out and borrow more money.

Charlie?

Charlie?
M1
M13:00

嗯,这显然是真的。

Well, it's obviously true.
M2
M23:01

如果我们用了很多成功经营者都会用的杠杆,Berkshire 现在会大得多。

If we had used the leverage that a lot of successful operators did, Berkshire would be a lot bigger.

会大得多。

A lot bigger.

大得多。

A lot bigger.

但那样的话,我们晚上就会睡不踏实。

But we would have been sweating at night.

为了财务上的事晚上睡不着,太不划算了。

It's crazy to sweat at night over financial things.

为了财务上的事。

Over financial things.

对。

Yes.

好,这个我们就不展开了。

Well, we won't pursue that.

Carol?

Carol?