M10:00
不过我老板 Ben Graham 当时让我去纽约的公共图书馆，帮他查点资料。这种事现在用电脑五分钟就能搞定。
But Ben Graham, my boss, sent me over to the public library in New York to gather some information for him, something you could do in 5 minutes with a computer now.
然后我还真给翻出来了，后来他就去作证了。
And I dug out something, and he went to testify.
然后，呃，在这本书的五百四十五页，我知道该去哪儿找。
And, uh, on page 545 of this book, I knew where to look.
我不用把整本都翻一遍，不过他，呃，有一句话——那句我到现在还记得。
I didn't have to go through it all, but he, uh, had a— the quote which I remember.
我之所以记得，是因为 Ben Graham 是我这辈子见过最聪明的三个人之一，而且他算是证券行业里宗师级的人物。
And I remember because Ben Graham was one of the 3 smartest people I've met in my life, and he was the dean of people in the securities business.
他在一九三四年写了那本经典的《Security Analysis》。
He wrote the classic Security Analysis book in 1934.
他在一九四九年写了那本改变我一生的书，《The Intelligent Investor》。
He wrote the book that changed my life, The Intelligent Investor, in 1949.
他聪明得简直不可思议。
He was unbelievably smart.
后来他去作证的时候，道指在四百零四点。他在书面证词一开始不远的地方写了一句话，他说，股市很高，看起来很高，确实很高，但还没有高到看上去那么高。
And when he testified, the Dow at 404, he had one line in there right toward the start in his written testimony, and he said the stock market is high, looks high, it is high, but it's not as high as it looks.
不过他说了，它的确是高。
But he said it is high.
然后从那以后，如果我们翻到下一张幻灯片，当然。
And since that time, if we'll turn to the next slide, of course.
我们就一路充分感受到了 America 这股顺风。
We felt the American tailwind at full force.
然后，然后道指——嗯，我看看，我们，呃，对，周五道指跌了，不过我们做这张幻灯片的时候，大概是在两万四千点。
And, and the Dow— well, let's see, we, uh, yeah, when the Dow was— went down Friday, but when we made the slide, it was about 24,000.
所以，呃，你今天看到的是这样一个市场：每投进去一美元，最后产生了一百美元。
So, uh, you're looking at a market today that has produced $100 for every dollar.
你要做的，无非就是相信 America，然后买入一篮子 America。
All you did was had to believe in America and just buy a cross-section of America.
你根本不用看《The Wall Street Journal》。
You didn't, you didn't have to read The Wall Street Journal.
你也不用去查自己股票的价格。
You didn't have to look up the price of your stock.
你也不用付给任何人一大笔费用。
You didn't have to pay a lot of money in fees to anybody.
你只需要相信，America 的奇迹还在。
You just had to believe that the American miracle was intact.
不过在一九二九年到——到，呃，其实更准确地说，一直到一九五四年，道指重新回到三百八十点所反映出来的这段时间里，你经历了一段考验期。
But you'd had this testing period between 1929 and, and, uh, well, really, uh, certainly 1954 is indicated by what happened when it got back up to 380.
你经历了这段考验期，然后，呃，人们在某种程度上确实失去了信心。
You had this testing period and, uh, people really, they'd lost faith to some degree.
他们就是没有看到 America 到底能做到什么的那种潜力。
They just didn't see the potential of what America could do.
而我们后来发现，呃，说到底，没有什么能阻挡 America。
And we found that, uh, that, uh, nothing can stop America when you get right down to it.
而且，呃，一路走来一直都是这样。
And, uh, it's been true all along.
也许它曾经被打断过，出现过最吓人的局面——比如一场战争，一个州的阵营和另一个州的阵营互相开打。
It may have been interrupted, uh, with the scariest of scenarios when you had a war with one group of states fighting another group of states.
也许它在 Great Depression 时又受过一次考验，现在也可能在某种程度上还在接受考验。
And it may have been tested again in the Great Depression, and it may be tested now to some degree.
但归根结底，答案永远是：永远不要跟 America 对赌。
But in the end, the answer is never bet against America.
而且，呃，在我看来，这句话今天和一七八九年时一样成立，甚至在 Civil War 期间、在大萧条最深重的时候，也一样成立。
And, uh, that in my view is as true today as it was in 1789, and even was true at the— during the Civil War and the depths of the Depression.
好了。
Now.