1997年股东大会 · 巴菲特：绝大多数基金经理的业绩将注定输给指数基金 — 文稿

M10:00

Buffett 先生，Munger 先生，我是来自 Mississippi 州 Jackson 的 Tim Medley。

Mr. Buffett, Mr. Munger, I'm Tim Medley from Jackson, Mississippi.

M20:06

Tim，很高兴你又来了。

We're glad to have you back, Tim.

Tim，你来了多少年了？

Tim, how many years have you come?

M10:09

这是我第十一次来。

This is my 11th.

M20:11

好。

Good.

M10:12

这十一年都特别棒。

They've been 11 great years.

非常感谢。

Thank you very much.

在这次会议上，呃，大概四五年前，您曾评论过，从整体来看，资金管理人并没有跑赢各种市场指数。

At this meeting, uh, 4 or 5 years ago, you commented that money managers in the aggregate have not done better than various market indices.

您还说，这部分原因在于主动管理型投资组合本身就存在摩擦成本。

And you attributed this in part to the frictional cost inherent in an actively managed portfolio.

我想问问，今天您会不会更新一下您对这件事的看法？您觉得这种相对于指数基金的跑输还会继续吗？

I wonder if today you would, you would update your thoughts on this, and do you think that this underperformance compared to index funds will continue?

还有一个相关的问题，如果你们两位要给一间教室里的股票型共同基金经理提建议，有没有特别想建议他们的两三点？

And then a related question, if the two of you were giving advice to a classroom of equity mutual fund managers, are there 2 or 3 things in particular that you would want to suggest to them?

M21:04

对，我会这么说：自从我说过那番话之后，这几年来，资金管理人的表现并没有让我失望。

Yeah, well, I would say this: money managers in the last few years since I've made that statement have not disappointed me.

从整体来看，他们确实跑输了指数基金，这就是这个游戏的本质。

In aggregate, they have underperformed index funds, and it's the nature of the game.

他们整体上根本不可能跑赢。

They simply cannot outperform in aggregate.

因为他们人数太多了，而且管理着资金池里太大的一部分。

There, there are too many of them managing too big a portion of the pool.

这就跟过去那些年，人群来到 Exarban 不可能整体赚到钱是一个道理。因为投进 pari-mutuel machines 的每一块钱，都会先被抽走一部分。所以，投资者把钱交给资金管理人去统一投资，从整体上看，不可能比自己做一个指数基金、或者更简单一点，直接去买一个指数基金，做得更好。

And for the same reason that the crowd could not come out here to Exarban in the past years and make money in aggregate, because there was a bite being taken out of every dollar that was invested in the pari-mutuel machines, that people that invest their dollars elsewhere through money managers in aggregate cannot do as well as they could do by themselves creating their own index fund, or it'd be easier to have just to buy into an index fund.

这个嘛，你知道，人们总说这世上不可能不劳而获，但事实是，资金管理人整体上就是得到了不劳而获的东西。

It's, uh, you know, they say in this world you can't get something for nothing, but the truth is money managers in aggregate have gotten something for nothing.

我的意思是，他们不只是拿到了一点，而是拿到了很多；而买单的是投资者。反过来说，投资者是花了钱，却没有得到相应的东西。

I mean, they've gotten a lot for nothing, and, and people, investors, have paid. And the corollary is investors have paid something for nothing.

这并不代表这些人有多坏。

And that doesn't mean that people are evil.

也不代表他们是骗子之类的。

It doesn't mean that they're charlatans or anything.

只是——这就是事情的本质。

It just— it's the nature.

如果你面对的是一个六万亿到七万亿美元左右的股票市场，不管具体是多少吧，而且其中相当大一部分是由专业人士在管理，他们向你收取相当可观的费用来替你投资，而他们调仓换股时又会产生成本，那么从整体上看，他们的表现就不可能比那些没有人管理的钱更好。

If you've got a $6 or $7 trillion, or whatever it may be, equity market, and you have a very significant percentage of it managed by professionals, and they charge you significant fees to invest with them, and they, they have costs when they change around, they cannot do as well as unmanaged money in aggregate.

而且这是我能想到的世界上唯一一个领域——当然 Charlie 可能还能想到别的——在这个领域里，业余的人，只要他知道自己是业余的，最终反而会比那个替别人管钱的专业人士替客户做得更好。

And it's the only field in the world that I, you know, that I can think of— and Charlie will think of some others— but, but where the amateur, as long as he recognizes he's an amateur, will do better than the professional does for the people whose money he's handling.

所以，如果是我来教这个班，或者对那个班讲话，我大概会告诉他们，为了他们自己的心理健康着想，他们最好还是离开这个房间。

And, and therefore, if I were teaching this class or speaking to that class, I would probably tell them that for their own psychological well-being, they should probably leave the room.

Charlie？

Charlie?

M33:19

嗯，关于这个话题，我在 USC 做的那次演讲里，基本已经把该说的话都说了，谁想看都可以去读。

Well, I pretty well said what I had to say on this subject in that talk I gave at USC, and anybody that wants to read that can read it.

不过我要说，年度股东大会有一点我很喜欢，就是我能跟很多很多人直接交流，而他们每年的投资管理费用，甚至比 Berkshire Hathaway 这家公司还低。

I will say that one of the things I like about the annual meeting is I get to interface with a whole lot of people that have even lower annual investment management expenses than Berkshire Hathaway the company does.

你仔细想想就知道了，我们已经把成本压得几乎接近于零了，而你们很多人已经把它做到零了。

I mean, if you stop to think about it, we've got our cost almost to zero, and many of you have gotten it to zero.

M23:57

对，Charlie 和我很乐意接受世界上任何一家资金管理机构的挑战，管理——哦，我刚收到一张纸条。

Yeah, we— Charlie and I would be glad to take any money management organization in the world that manages— oh, just been handed a note.

上面写着，很遗憾，我们现场没有多余的 annual reports。

It says, unfortunately, we don't have extra annual reports on site.

想要这份材料的股东，可以给我们打电话或者写信。

Those shareholders desiring one should call us or write.

另外，我们也上 Internet 了。

And we're also on the Internet.

你也可以直接从那上面把它弄下来。

You can run it off there too.

所以，没在这儿给大家备好，我表示抱歉，不过很容易拿到。

So, I apologize for not having them on the— here, but they're easy to get.

你只要拨三四六幺四零零，有一条 annual report 专线，然后我们就会寄一份给你。

Just dial 346-1400, and there's an annual report line, and you'll have one sent to you.

我们愿意接受世界上任何一家管理资金达到一百亿美元或以上的 money management organization；如果是 brokerage house 的话，只要他们旗下经纪人合计管理或经手的资金达到一百亿美元或以上，也可以。

We would be willing to take any money management organization in the world managing $10 billion or more, and in the case of brokerage houses, who have their brokers in aggregate handling $10 billion or more.

而且我们愿意打赌，未来五年或者十年里，他们所建议的那一整组客户的总体投资结果，会比一只 no-load、费用非常低的 index fund 取得的成绩更差——会更差。

And we would be willing to bet that their aggregate investment experience over the next 5 years or 10 years for the group that they advise will be less— will be poorer than that achieved by a no-load, very low-cost index fund.

只要有人愿意站出来跟我们对赌，我们愿意拿出很多钱来打这个赌。

And we'd put up a lot of money to make that wager with anybody that would care to step forward.

赌博也许是违法的，不过你现在可以通过一种叫 derivatives 的东西来做这件事，你看。

Gambling may be illegal, but now you can do it through something called derivatives, you see.

我们可以设计出一种工具来实现这个目的，哪怕这可能违反 Nebraska 州的法律。

And we could create an instrument that would allow that, even though it might be against the laws of the state of Nebraska.

Charlie，你愿意跟我一起干这个吗，还是——

Charlie, would you join me on that, or—.

M35:28

哦，我当然同意你的看法。

Well, I certainly agree with you.

我总是说，恰好有五分之一的人注定得落在后百分之二十；这里面有一些根本性的力量在起作用——不过这也是个很奇怪的行业，如果你真的做这份工作，那你早上刮胡子的时候，几乎得让自己处在一种心理否认的状态才行。

I always say that exactly one-fifth have to be in the bottom 20%, and there are certain fundamental forces at work here that— but it is a very peculiar profession where you have to be in a state of psychological denial to shave in the morning if you, if you do the work.

不过我不认为少数那几个人也是这样。

I don't think that's true for a handful.

嗯，我说的是 investment managers。

Well, it is investment managers.

我，我想我们都认识一些 investment managers，嗯，他们确实能创造价值，嗯，不过这种人相对来说非常少，只占很小的比例。

I, I think we know investment managers who, uh, who add value, uh, but it's, it's a comparatively rare and small percentage.

M26:08

对，我们过去其实也识别出来过——我的意思是，甚至是在事先判断、不是事后回看——一些确实能创造价值的 managers，而这个房间里就有几位。

Yeah, we, there, we have identified in the past even, I mean, on a prospective basis, not retrospective, managers who have added value, and there's a couple of them in this room.

M36:22

嗯，比如 GEICO 的 Lou Simpson。

Well, there's Lou Simpson of GEICO.

M26:25

对，他就是我刚才想到的人之一。

Well, he's one I had in mind.

你知道，这——这事是能做到的。

You know, it— you can do it.

只是你没法拿无限大的资金规模去做，而好的业绩往往会把资金吸引过来。

You can't do it with unlimited amounts of money, and a good record tends to attract money.

就算只是一般的业绩，要是由一个很会推销的人来包装，也往往能吸引资金。不过——嗯，确实有一些人在管理较小规模资金的时候，大概率能做得比平均水平更好，但他们非常罕见。

Even a mediocre record presented by a good salesperson tends to attract money, but the— uh, there are people working with smaller amounts of money where the probabilities are that they will do better than average, but they're very rare.