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2003年股东大会 · 芒格:买股票这件事,我们喜欢下重注

32 段 · 3 位说话人 · 原片 3:17
M1
M10:00

各位先生,Wayne Peters,来自澳大利亚 Sydney。

Gentlemen, Wayne Peters from Sydney, Australia.

我的问题是关于股票仓位配置的。

My question goes to stock weightings.

你们能不能讲讲,你们在一笔新的投资里——我指的是 marketable securities——最开始是怎么决定投入比例的?另外,对于后续可能的调仓,你们又是怎么想的?

Could you describe your thought process in firstly determining your commitment weighting level in a new investment—marketable securities is what I'm referring to—and secondly, your thoughts on potential reweighting?

从你们的记录来看,而且很明显,尤其是早些年相比现在,平均来说你们要么持有一只股票,要么就完全不持有。

Your record, and clearly in the earlier days as opposed to now, would indicate that on average you're either in a stock or out of it.

对。

Yes.

不过有时候你们也会加仓或者减仓。

Though on occasion you've topped up and lightened up.
M2
M20:32

Charlie,这个问题我让你先回答一个。

Charlie, I'll let you have one.
M3
M30:34

我没完全听懂这个问题。

I didn't fully understand that question.
M1
M10:39

我是说,你们在决定对一项 marketable security 做初始投入的时候,比如说做成百分之五、百分之十、百分之十五这样的仓位,你们一开始会决定下多重的仓位?

Referring to how you make an initial commitment to a marketable security investment in regards to making it maybe a 5%, 10%, 15% commitment, how heavy you decide to go into a position initially?
M3
M30:55

嗯,我们通常不喜欢小仓位。

Well, we ordinarily don't like small positions.

对,我们喜欢下重注。

Yeah, we like to go in heavy.
M2
M21:00

我的意思是,如果我们想通过股票市场投资一家企业,我们就想投很多钱进去。

I mean, if we want to invest in a business through the stock market, we want to put a lot of money in.

你知道,我们不相信这儿来一点、那儿来一点这种做法。

You know, we do not believe in a little of this and a little of that.

所以按我们现在这个体量,主要限制我们的,是能不能买到我们想要的那个数量,而不是说按整个投资组合的某个百分比来限制自己。

So at our present size, we're limited primarily by the availability of the quantity we want rather than restricting ourselves based on some percentage of a total portfolio.

我想不出来有什么股票是我们买着买着主动停手的,除非是因为快碰到某个百分之十的上限了,那样我们可能会涉及 short-swing profits,或者变成 insider,诸如此类。

I can't—it's very hard for me to think of a stock we quit on in terms of buying except because we were going to run into some 10% limit where we would get liable for short-swing profits or become insiders or that sort of thing.

我们几乎从来都不想停下来。

We almost never want to quit.

对吧,Charlie?

Isn't that right, Charlie?

嗯,除非价格涨上去了。

Well, not unless the price goes up.
M3
M31:50

对。

Yeah.
M2
M21:52

当然,这也正是我们犯过大错的地方。

And of course, that's where we've made our big mistakes.

我是说,我们犯过——准确地说,是我犯过这些大错。

I mean, we have—or I've made the big mistakes, actually.

呃,有那么几次,我们其实很懂那个东西,知道该买,它也在我们的 circle of competence 之内,而且我们本来可以大量买进;只不过它价格稍微涨了一点,我们就因为价格退缩了。但我们退缩,不是因为不想投超过 X 美元,而是因为价格。

Uh, I've—there have been a couple of things that we knew enough to buy that were in our circle of competence where we could have bought lots of stock, except it went up a little bit, and then we faded because of the price, but we didn't fade because we didn't want to put more than X dollars in.

如果我们发现一个点子,愿意投五亿美元进去,那要是能投三十亿到四十亿美元,我们大概会更高兴。

If we find an idea that we want to put $500 million in, we probably would be even happier if we could put $3 or $4 billion in.

你知道,好机会太稀缺了,一旦找到,就不该舍不得下钱。

You know, we—good ideas are too scarce to be parsimonious with once you find them.
M3
M32:37

当年在 See's Candies 那件事上,我们差一点就因为不愿意多付点钱而犯错;结果后来在 marketable securities 上,我们又把这个该死的错误犯了好几次。

Having narrowly averted the mistake of being unwilling to pay up at See's Candies, we've gone on and made the same damn mistake several times with respect to marketable securities.

很显然,我们学得非常慢。

We evidently learn very slowly.

而且这让我们付出了很多很多很多十亿美元的代价。

It's cost us many, many, many billions of dollars, too.

当然,这些都是机会成本意义上的几十亿。

Now, those are opportunity cost billions.

它们不会体现在财务报表里。

They don't show up in the financial statements.

但是,Berkshire Hathaway 总部因为愚蠢决策白白浪费掉的钱,数量真是惊人。

But the amount of money that's been blown by dumb decisions at headquarters at Berkshire Hathaway is awesome.

说得好。

Well said.

对。

Yeah.