2009年股东大会 · 巴菲特心中，商学院MBA只需要教两门课就够了 — 文稿

F10:00

你好，Warren。

Hi, Warren.

这声音有点大，抱歉。

That's a little loud, sorry.

大家好，我叫 Sarah，来自 Nebraska 的 Omaha。

Hi, my name is Sarah and I'm from Omaha, Nebraska.

我想知道，你能不能讲讲你的投资策略，尤其是 value investing，在培养下一代投资人这件事上该怎么应用？

I'd like to know if you could explain your strategies, namely value investing, in regards to cultivating the next generation of investors.

你会怎么教这群年轻人？

How will you teach this young group?

M10:22

嗯，今年有四十九所学校来 Omaha，主要都是 universities，也有少数几所 colleges。

Well, I had 49, mostly universities, a few colleges, uh, that came to Omaha this year.

我们一般是六所一组来安排，最后一组又多加了一所 university。

We do them in clumps of 6, and then the last one we had an added university.

所以我们一共办了八场，都是一整天的 session。

So we had 8 sessions, full-day sessions.

他们会问我——有时候会问我，呃，如果让我经营一所教投资的商学院，我会怎么做。

And they asked me what— sometimes they ask me, uh, what I'd do if I was running a business school teaching investments.

我告诉他们，我只会开两门课。

And I tell them I'd only have 2 courses.

一门是怎么给一家企业估值。

One would be how to value a business.

第二门是怎么思考市场。

And the second would be how to think about, about markets.

至于 modern portfolio theory、beta、efficient markets 这些东西，课里都不会有。

And there wouldn't be anything about modern portfolio theory or beta or efficient markets or anything like that.

这些内容，前十分钟我们就把它全扔掉。

We'd get rid of that in the first 10 minutes.

但是，如果你知道该怎么给一家企业估值，你也不需要会给 New York Stock Exchange 上所有企业估值。我也不清楚，大概有四千家到五千家企业吧，NASDAQ 上还要多得多。

The— but if you know how to value a business, and you don't have to know how to value all businesses on the New York Stock Exchange, I don't know, there's 4,000 or 5,000 probably businesses and a whole lot more on NASDAQ.

你不需要在这四千家或五千家企业上都判断正确。

You don't have to be right on 4,000 or 5,000.

你甚至不需要在四百家上都判断正确。

You don't have to be right on 400.

你也不需要在四十家上都判断正确。

You don't have to be right on 40.

你只要待在自己的 circle of competence 之内，也就是你能理解的那些东西里，然后在你能估值的企业当中，去找那些卖得比它真实价值更便宜的机会。

You just have to stay within the circle of competence, the things you can understand, and look for things that are selling for less than they're worth, of the ones you can value.

而且，呃，你一开始的 circle of competence 可以相当小，随着时间慢慢多了解一些企业；但你也会发现，有很多企业本身就是没法好好估值的，那种你就直接别碰。

And, uh, you can start out with a fairly small circle of competence and learn more about businesses as you go along, but you'll learn that there are a whole bunch of them that simply don't lend themselves to valuations, and you forget about those.

呃，我觉得如果 accounting 能帮到你，那你确实得懂 accounting，因为那是商业的语言。

Uh, and I think if accounting helps you in that, you need to understand accounting to know the language of business.

但 accounting 也有非常大的局限，所以你得学到足够明白，知道什么时候 accounting 信息是有意义的，什么时候又必须忽略 accounting 的某些部分。

But accounting also has enormous limitations, and you have to, you have to learn enough to know what accounting is meaningful and when you have to ignore certain aspects of accounting.

你得明白，什么时候竞争优势是持久的，什么时候只是昙花一现。

You have to understand when competitive advantages are durable and when they're fleeting.

我的意思是，你得学会分辨 hula hoop company 和 Coca-Cola 这样的公司之间的区别。

I mean, you have to learn the difference between a hula hoop company, you know, and Coca-Cola.

不过这事其实也没那么难。

Uh, but that isn't too hard to do.

然后你还得知道，该怎么去看待市场波动，而且要真正明白，市场存在是为你服务的，不是来指导你的。

And then you have to know how to think about, uh, market fluctuations and, and really learn that the market is there to serve you rather than instruct you.

而且很大程度上，这跟 IQ 没什么关系。

And to a great extent, that is not a matter of IQ.

呃，如果你是在做投资，而且你的 IQ 有一百五十，那就卖掉三十分给别人吧，因为你根本用不着。

Uh, if you have— if you're in the investment business and you have an IQ of 150, sell 30 points to somebody else because you don't need it.

我的意思是——对，对。

I mean, it— yeah, yeah.

你需要——你需要相当聪明，呃，但你完全不需要是个天才。

You need to be— you need to be reasonably intelligent, uh, but you, you do not need to be a genius at all.

对，实际上，它还可能有害。

Yeah, in fact, it can hurt.

嗯，所以，不过你确实得有情绪上的稳定性。

Um, so, but you do have to have an emotional stability.

你得对自己的决定有一种内心的平静，呃，因为这是个游戏，你会每分每秒都受到各种刺激，大家总是在不停地发表意见。

You have to have sort of an inner peace about your decisions, uh, because it is a game where you get subjected to minute-by-minute stimuli where people are offering opinions all the time.

你必须能够独立思考。

You have to be able to think for yourself.

还有，呃，我不知道这个东西——我不知道有多少是天生的，又有多少是可以教出来的。

And, uh, I don't know whether— I don't know how much of that's innate and how much can be taught.

但如果你有这种特质，呃，只要你肯花点时间在投资上，学一点企业估值的东西，呃，呃，你在投资上会做得非常好，这不是一个复杂的游戏。

But if you have that quality, uh, you'll do very well in investing if you spend some time at it, learn something about valuing businesses, uh, uh, it's not a complicated game.

就像我说过很多次的，简单，但不容易。

As I said many times, it's simple but not easy.

这不是一个复杂的游戏。

It is not a complicated game.

你不需要懂高等数学。

You don't have to understand higher math.

你也不需要，你知道，不需要懂法律。

You don't, you know, you don't have to understand law.

有很多很多事情，你不必特别擅长。

There's all kinds of things that you don't have to be good at.

这个世界上有很多工作都比这难得多。

There's all kinds of jobs in this world that are much tougher.

但你确实得有一种情绪上的稳定性，能带着你扛过几乎任何情况。

But you do have to have sort of an emotional stability that will take you through almost anything.

这样的话，随着时间推移，你就会做出好的——你会做出好的投资决策。

And then you'll make good— you'll make good investment decisions over time.

Charlie？

Charlie?

M24:08

对，你确实要面对一个基本问题：全世界未来的投资者里，恰好有一半会落在后百分之五十。

Yeah, you do have the basic problem that exactly half of the future investors of the world are going to be in the bottom 50%.

换句话说，顶层的人永远会比底层的人更有本事，你永远也不可能把全世界投资这件事的专业能力，呃，给弄得完全平均化。

In other words, you're always going to have more skill at the top than you have at the bottom, and you're never going to be able to homogenize, uh, the investment exercise, uh, expertise of the world.

现代投资实践、现代投资银行业，还有现代学术界——包括商学院，甚至经济系——里面，有太多错误又荒唐的东西了。

There is so much that's false and nutty in modern investment practice and in modern investment banking and in modern academia, in the business schools, even the economics departments.

所以如果你只是把这些胡说八道减少一点，这就是我觉得你们合理能期待做到的全部了。

That if you just reduce the nonsense, that's all I think you should reasonably hope for.

M15:04

不过，超过某个基本的技能水平之后，你会不会觉得，一个人的情绪特质比——比那种特别高超的技能更重要？

Beyond a certain basic level though of skill, wouldn't you say your emotional makeup's more important than the— than some super high degree of skill?

M25:13

绝对是。

Absolutely.

而且，而且如果你以为自己的天赋——如果你以为自己的 IQ 是一百六，其实只有一百五，那你就惨了。

And, and if you, if you think your talent— if you think your IQ is 160 and it's 150, you're a disaster.

你知道，一个 IQ 一百三、但做事很有分寸、很清楚自己边界的人，要好得多。

You know, much better a guy with 130 that's operating well within himself.

M15:32

我，我会见到那些过来的学生。

I, I get to see the students that come by.

我很喜欢那个来自 University of Chicago 的小伙子，也是个学生，他问我的第一个问题就是：我们学的东西里，哪些错得最离谱？

I love the fellow from the University of Chicago, one of the students, and the first question that was asked to me is, what are we learning that's most wrong?

我的意思是，这，这种——我真希望他们也能对这里的讨论小组问这种问题。

I mean, that, that's the kind of— I wish they'd asked that sort of thing of the panel here.

M25:46

这种问题你怎么可能在一场里就讲明白？

How do you handle that in one session?

M15:53

但在二十五年前，efficient market theory 可是金科玉律。

But it was holy writ 25 years ago, efficient market theory.

你知道，那——我一直都不明白，这东西怎么居然还能拿来教。

You know, that— I never understood how you could even teach it.

我的意思是，如果你一走进教室，前五分钟就对学生说，所有东西的定价都是正确的，那剩下那五十五分钟你还怎么打发？

I mean, if you walked in and the first 5 minutes you said to the students, everything is priced properly, I mean, how do you kill the rest of the hour?

但是他们确实就这么做了，而且你知道，他们因为这事做得好，还拿到了 PhD 学位。

But it— they did it, and they got— and they got PhDs for doing it well, you know.

而且你知道，他们在自己那些文章里塞进去的 Greek symbols 越多，别人就越敬重他们。

And the— and the more Greek symbols they could work into their, you know, their writings, the, you know, the more they were revered.

让我很震惊的一点是，而且这甚至可能让我对 academia 整体都带上了一点偏见，就是那些很荒唐的想法居然会被接受、会被传播到什么程度。

It's astounding to me, and it may have even given me a jaundiced view of academia generally, is the degree to which ideas that are nutty take hold and get propagated.

然后我前几天看到一句话，可能在某种程度上解释了这个现象。

And then I read a quote the other day that may have partially explained it.

是著名物理学家 Max Planck 说的，他谈到人类思维——哪怕是很聪明的头脑——对新观念的抗拒，尤其是那些经过很多年精心建立起来、而且还被有地位的人认可和背书的观念。

Max Planck was talking, the famous physicist, that Max Planck was talking about the resistance of the human mind, even the bright human mind, to new ideas, and particularly the ones that had been developed carefully over many years and, and were, were blessed by, by others of stature and so on.

他说，science 是靠一次一场葬礼这样往前推进的。

And he said science advances one funeral at a time.

我觉得这话非常有道理，而且在 finance 领域当然也是这样。

And I think there's a lot of truth to that, and certainly been true in the world of finance.

好，Andrew。

Okay, Andrew.