M20:44
我们，我们，我们偏好那种我们真的觉得自己知道答案的企业。所以，如果一个企业到了这种程度：我们觉得它所在的行业、它的竞争地位，呃，或者别的什么因素，充满了太多不确定性，以至于我们根本没法得出一个数字，那我们不会试图靠设置一个特别大的安全边际来弥补这种问题。
We, we, we favor the businesses where we really think we know the answer, and therefore if a business gets to the point where we think the industry in which it operates, the competitive position, uh, or anything is, is so chancy that we can't really come up with a figure, we don't really try to compensate for that sort of thing by having some extra-large margin of safety.
我们真的会继续往下找，尽量去找一些我们更能看懂的东西。
We really go on, try to go on to something that we understand better.
所以如果我们买的是像 See's Candy 这样的企业，或者 Coca-Cola 这样的股票，我们不会觉得自己需要一个巨大的安全边际，因为我们不认为自己会在我们的假设上出现什么重大的错误。
So if we buy something like See's Candy as a business or Coca-Cola as a stock, we don't think we need a huge margin of safety because we don't think we're going to be wrong about our, about our assumptions in any material way.
我们真正想做的，是买下一门伟大的生意。所谓伟大的生意，就是这家公司能在很长很长的时间里，对投入资本持续赚到很高的回报，而且我们也认为管理层会善待我们。
What we really want to do is buy a business that's a great business, which means a business is going to earn a high return on capital employed for a very long period of time and where we think the management will treat us right.
当我们找到这些因素的时候，我们就不需要把价格压得特别低。
And we don't have to mark those down a lot when we find those factors.
我们当然很愿意在一块钱的东西卖四毛钱的时候买到它，但就算价格更接近一块钱，我们也还是会买。
We'd love to find them when they're selling at 40 cents on the dollar, but we will buy those at much closer to a dollar on the dollar.
我们不喜欢按一块钱买一块钱的东西，但接近这个价格，我们也会付。
We don't like to pay a dollar on the dollar, but we'll pay something close.
呃，如果我们真的遇到某个东西——你知道，当我们看到一家伟大的企业时，就像你看到一个人走进门来，你分不清他是三百磅还是三百二十五磅，但你还是知道他很胖，对吧？
Uh, and if we really get to something—you know, when we see a great business, it's like if you see somebody walk in the door and you don't know whether they weigh 300 pounds or 325 pounds, you still know they're fat, right?
所以，如果我们看到某样东西，从财务上看我们知道它很“胖”，我们就不会太纠结于精确。
You know, and so if we see something where we know it's fat financially, we don't worry about being precise.
而在刚才那个例子里，如果我们能以相当于二百七十磅的价格进去买，我们就会感觉很好。
And if we can come in, in that particular example, at the equivalent of 270 pounds, we'll feel good.
但是，如果我们发现某个东西在竞争层面上——就是这门生意的本质决定了，你根本没法看清未来五年、十年，或者二十年，因为投资本来就是要看未来。
But if we find something where the competitive aspects are—it's just the nature of the business that you really can't see out 5 or 10 or 20 years, because that's what investing is, is seeing out.
已经发生的事情，不会让你赚钱。
You don't get paid for what's already happened.
只有未来将要发生的事情，才会让你赚钱。
You only get paid for what's going to happen in the future.
过去对你唯一有用的地方，就是它能在多大程度上帮助你洞察未来。
The past is only useful to you in the extent to which it gives you insights into the future.
而有时候，过去对未来根本给不了你任何洞察。
And sometimes the past doesn't give you any insights into the future.
而在另外一些情况下，比如你刚才假设的那种稳定型企业，嗯，过去大概确实能给你一个相当不错的指引，让你判断未来会发生什么。
And in other cases, like the stable business that you postulated, um, it probably does give you a pretty good guideline as to what's going to happen in the future.
那你就不需要一个巨大的安全边际。
And you don't need a huge margin of safety.
你，你还是应该有一点，也就是你始终都应该觉得，自己买到的东西比它的价值稍微便宜一点。
You, you should have something that you all should always should feel you're getting a little more than what, uh, what it's worth.
当然，也有些时候我们能以价值的四分之一买到非常棒的企业，但那样的时刻我们并不常见。
And there are times when we've been able to buy wonderful businesses at a quarter of what they're worth, but we haven't seen those times.
嗯，最近我们在 Korea 倒是见到过一次，
Well, we saw it in Korea here recently, but you don't see those
但这种事情并不经常出现。
sort of things very often.
那这是不是意味着你就该坐在那里等，盼着它们再回来，等个十年十五年呢？
And does that mean you should sit around and hope they come back for 10 or 15, you know, wait 10 or 15 years?
我们不是这么做的。
That's not the way we do it.
如果我们能以合理的估值买到好企业，我们就会一直这么做下去。
If we can buy good businesses at a reasonable valuation, we're going to keep doing it.
Charlie？
Charlie?