M10:27
对，第一类更好。就是说——我的意思是，如果你拥有一个很棒的消费品，呃，也不一定非得是消费品，总之是那种为了增长、为了做出更高销售额，只需要很少资本的产品型生意，呃，通胀来的时候，就算销量件数不增长，销售额也会上去，呃，而且支撑这种增长并不需要太多资本。
Yeah, the first group is superior, just as— I mean, if you can have a wonderful consumer product, uh, it doesn't have to be a consumer product, a product that requires very little capital to grow and to do more dollar volume, uh, as will happen with inflation even if you don't have unit growth, uh, and it doesn't take much capital, uh, to support that growth.
这种资产在通胀时期是非常棒的。
That is a wonderful asset to have in inflation.
我的意思是，这一点最极致的例子，其实就是你自己的赚钱能力。
I mean, the ultimate test of that is your own earning ability.
我是说，如果你是个非常出色的医生、律师，不管是什么职业，老师也好——随着通胀推进，你提供的服务用美元来计价会越来越值钱，而你并不需要再额外往自己身上投入什么资本。
I mean, if, if you're an outstanding doctor, lawyer, whatever it may be, teacher, the— you, as inflation goes along, your services will command more and more in, in dollar terms, and you don't have to make any additional investment in yourself.
人们也会想到这一类资产，比如寿命很长的房地产，或者类似的东西，或者农场，或者任何那种不需要额外资本去支撑通胀性增长的资产。
People think of that, you know, with a, a very long-lived real estate asset or something of the sort, or a farm or anything where additional capital is not required to finance inflationary growth.
最糟糕的一类生意，就是那种有一大堆应收账款、库存之类东西的生意。
The worst kind of businesses are the businesses with tons of receivables and inventories and all of that.
从金额上看，如果它们的业务量不变，但物价翻了一倍，那它们就得拿出双倍的钱，呃，才能维持同样的业务规模，这种资产就可能非常糟糕。
And in dollar terms, if their, if their volume stays flat but the price level doubles, and they need to come up with double the amount of money, uh, to do that same volume of business, that can be a very bad asset.
当然，通常来说，我们并不偏爱那种需要大量资本投入的生意，比如 utilities 和 railroad。
Now, normally we are not enthused about businesses that require heavy capital investment, just like utilities and the railroad.
不过另一方面，我们认为，尤其是 railroad 这种生意，因为它并没有法律上保证的固定回报率，所以它理应能够在这些资产对经济变得越来越重要、越来越有价值的过程中赚到回报——不管这是因为通胀因素，还是单纯的自然增长因素；而在美国，我觉得两者都会有。
We think that, uh, on the other hand, that particularly with the railroad, that, uh, where you do not have any guaranteed legal rate of return, that you should be entitled to earn returns on assets that are becoming more and more valuable to the, to the economy, as, uh, whether it's because of inflationary factors or, or because of just natural growth factors, or in the case of the United States, I think it'll be both.
不过最理想的生意——拿 See's Candy 来说——我们买下它的时候，它的销售额是两千五百万美元，卖出了 一千六百万磅 糖果，每磅价格略高于 一美元。
Uh, but the ideal business— See's Candy is doing— It was doing $25 million of volume when we bought it, and it sold 16 million pounds of candy at a little more than a dollar.
嗯，零售价是 一块九，我们还给过一些数量折扣。
Well, it retails at $1.90, and we had some quantity discounts.
所以当时我们的业务规模差不多接近 三千万美元。
So we were doing close to $30 million worth of business.
现在我们的业务规模已经远远超过 三亿美元了。
Now we're doing well over $300 million worth of business.
当它一年做 三千万美元 生意的时候，只需要 九百万美元 的有形资产来运转；而现在做到 三亿多美元，大概也只需要 四千万美元 的有形资产。
It took $9 million of tangible assets to run it when it was doing $30 million, and it takes about $40 million of tangible assets to— at $300 and something.
所以这么多年下来，我们总共只需要往这个生意里再投入 三千万美元，但它在这段期间里给我们赚到的——嗯，税前大概已经有 十五亿美元 了。
So we've only had to plow back $30 million into a business, which will make us— well, it's made us probably $1.5 billion pretax during that period.
而且如果糖果价格翻倍，我们几乎也没什么应收账款可说。
And if the price of candy doubles, we don't have any receivables to speak of.
我们的库存周转很快。
Our inventory turns fast.
我们不会把它长期存放，或者做这类事情。
We don't store it or anything like that.
我们会按季节提前备货，而且固定资产规模也不大。
We gear up seasonally, and the fixed assets aren't big.
所以如果通胀很厉害，拥有这样的生意，肯定比拥有 utility 生意要好得多。
So that, that is a much better business to own than a utility business if you're going to have a lot of inflation.
Charlie？
Charlie?
对，而且这里有意思的地方在于，我们并不是一直都明白这一点，所以——而且有时候我们还会把这事忘了。
Yeah, and what's interesting about it is that we didn't always know this, and, and so— And sometimes we forget it.
这也是真的，不过这恰恰说明，持续学习是绝对必需的。
That's true too, but it shows how continuous learning is absolutely required.
如果你想在这个世界上取得任何真正有分量的成就的话。
To have any significant achievement at all in the world.
对，这也确实说明了——你知道，我以前说过，我之所以是更好的商人，是因为我是投资人；而我之所以是更好的投资人，是因为我是商人。
Yeah, and it does show, you know, I've said in the past that I'm a better businessman because I'm an investor, and I'm a better investor because I'm a businessman.
没有什么能比得上亲身经历这种资本投入的必要性，特别是在 1970 年代通胀越来越强、以及 80 年代初的时候，你会看到企业被迫进行大规模的资本投入。
There's nothing like actually experiencing the necessity, particularly in the 1970s when inflation was gathering strength, and early '80s, you would see this absolutely required capital investment on a very big scale.
但这些投入，呃，在盈利上其实并没有带来与之相称的产出。
That really wasn't producing anything, uh, commensurate in the way of earnings.
我在 1977 年给 Fortune 写过一篇文章，题目叫《How Inflation Swindles the Equity Investor》。
I wrote an article for Fortune called How Inflation Swindles the Equity Investor back in 1977.
你真正想要的——理想中的资产，你知道，就是在通胀时期，能从别人的销售额里抽版税。你每个月唯一要做的，就是收一张版税支票，而且这个钱是按他们的销量来算的。你当初想出了某个产品，把它授权给他们，然后之后你再也不用投入任何资本了。
You really want— the ideal asset, you know, is a royalty on somebody else's sales during inflation, where all you do is get a royalty check every month and it's based on their sales volume, and you made some— you came up with some product originally, licensed it to them, and you never have another bit of capital investment.
你没有应收账款，没有存货，也没有固定资产。
You have no receivables, you have no inventory, you have no fixed assets.
这种生意才是真正能抵御通胀的，前提是这个产品还能一直有生命力。
That kind of a business is real inflation protection, assuming the product maintains its viability.
所以，尽管我们现在也在进入一些资本密集型的行业，其中一个原因是，我们没法把手头这么多资本都投进一大堆 See's Candies 这样的生意里。
Uh, so even though we are going into some very capital-intensive businesses, part of that reflects the fact we can't deploy the amount of capital we have in a whole bunch of See's Candies.
我们就是做不到，我们找不到那么多。
We just can't, we can't find them.
我们当然很想找到，但就是找不到足够数量的。
We'd love to find them, but we can't find them in the quantity.
所以，当我们每年必须投出去几十亿美元的时候，我们在资本运用上的效果，肯定不如每年只投几百万美元的时候那么好。
So we are not doing as well with capital when we have to invest many billions a year as we would if we were investing a few millions a year.
这一点毫无疑问。
There's no question.
在投资上是这样。
That's true in investments.
在实际经营的企业里也是这样，因为规模太大确实会带来劣势。
It's true in operating businesses where there is a real disadvantage to size.
而我们只希望这个问题越来越大。
And we just hope that problem grows.
现在你这话说到点子上了。
Now you're talking.