M21:25
从经济上以及其他方面来看，美国和中国都会在很长很长很长一段时间里，继续是世界上的两个超级大国。
The United States and China are going to be the 2 superpowers of the world economically and in other ways for a long, long, long time.
我们有很多共同利益。就像任何两个大型经济体一样，有时候会出现紧张关系，但从根本上说，世界进行贸易就是一个双赢的局面，而中国和美国是其中两个最重要的因素。不过，世界上还有很多其他国家和人民，也都会影响这件事最终怎么发展。
We have a lot of common interests, and like any 2 big economic entities, there are times when there'll be tensions, but it is a win-win situation when the world trades, basically, and China and the US are the 2 big factors in that, but there's plenty of other citizens of the world that are involved in how this comes out.
这一点毫无疑问。我觉得在这个国家，比较好的一点是，无论 Democrats 还是 Republicans，整体上基本都相信自由贸易的好处。
There's no question, and the nice thing about it in this country, I think, is that both Democrats and Republicans basically, on balance, believe in the benefits of free trade.
我们彼此之间会有分歧。
We will have disagreements with each other.
我们和其他国家在贸易上也会有分歧，但自由贸易带来的好处实在太大、太明显了，而且世界的进步在很大程度上都依赖它，所以两个理性的国家不太可能去做特别愚蠢的事。
We'll have disagreements with other countries on trade, but it's just too big and too obvious that the benefits are huge, and the world's dependent on it in a major way for its progress, that 2 intelligent countries will do something extremely foolish.
当然，我们双方偶尔都可能做一些不算太明智的事，而且这里面显然也会有一些互相让步和博弈。
We both may do things that are mildly foolish from time to time, and there is some give and take obviously involved.
不过，一九七零年美国的出口和进口都大约占 GDP 的百分之五。
But US exports in 1970 and US imports in 1970 were both about 5% of GDP.
也就是说，那时候我们大致上卖出了相当于 GDP 百分之五的东西，也买进了相当于 GDP 百分之五的东西。
So here we were selling 5% of our GDP and buying 5% of our GDP, basically.
现在人们觉得我们好像没出口多少东西。
Now people think we don't export a lot of things.
其实我们的出口占 GDP 的百分之十一点几。
Our exports are 11 and a fraction percent of GDP.
按这个不断增长的 GDP 来看，这个占比已经翻了一倍多，但进口大约是百分之十四点五。
They've more than doubled as a share of this rising GDP, but the imports are about 14.5%.
所以这里面有大约百分之三的缺口。
So there's a gap of 3% or thereabouts.
我当然不希望这个缺口变得太大，但你仔细想想，如果有人给你送来一大堆你想要的商品，而你只需要递给他们一些小纸片，这其实也不算世界上最糟糕的事。
And I would not like that gap to get too wide, but when you think about it, it's really not the worst thing in the world to have somebody send you a lot of goods that you want and hand them little pieces of paper.
我的意思是，作为平衡项，如果你的贸易是顺差——或者说是逆差——那你在投资项下就会是顺差。
I mean, because the balancing item is if you have a surplus of—or a deficit in your trade, you're gonna have a surplus in investment.
这样一来，全世界手里就会拿到更多针对美国的索取权。他们觉得自己在某种程度上可以去买我们的政府债券，也可以买企业。
And then so the world is getting more claim checks on the United States, and they think they, to some extent, they buy our government securities, they can buy businesses.
但从长期来看，你也不希望这个缺口变得太大，因为你发给世界其他地方的这些索取权一旦太多，在某些情况下可能会让人有点不舒服。
And over time, you don't want the gap to get to be too wide because the amount of claim checks you were giving out to the rest of the world could get a little unpleasant under some circumstances.
不过，我们在贸易上做得特别好。
But we've done remarkably well with trade.
China 在贸易上也做得特别好。
China's done remarkably well with trade.
世界各国在贸易上都做得特别好。
The countries of the world have done remarkably well with trade.
所以这是一个双赢的局面。
So it is a win-win situation.
唯一的问题就是，某一方或者另一方有时候可能会想多赢一点，这样就会出现一定程度的紧张。
And the only problem gets to be when one side or the other may want to win a little bit too much, and then you have a certain amount of tension.
但是我们不会因为贸易中出现的分歧，就牺牲整个世界——我是说，不会牺牲全球的繁荣。
But we will not sacrifice the world—I mean, will not sacrifice world prosperity based on differences that arise in trade.
Charlie？
Charlie?