M10:47
挺有意思的是，你提到了 value investing 这个词，因为我可以向你保证，那两位经理——其中一位在上个季度买了一些 Amazon 的股票，这会在再过一周或十天左右披露——
It's interesting that the term value investing came up because I can assure you that both managers who— and one of them bought some Amazon stock in the last quarter, which will get reported in another week or 10 days.
他就是个 value investor。
He is a value investor.
所谓价值，和账面价值、低市盈率之类的东西必然挂钩，这种想法——就像 Charlie 说的，所有投资本质上都是 value investing。
The idea that value is somehow connected to book value or low price-earnings ratios or anything— as Charlie has said, all investing is value investing.
我的意思是，你现在拿出一些钱，是为了以后拿回来更多的钱，而你是在做一个计算。
I mean, you're putting out some money now to get more later on, and you're making a calculation.
这个计算包括：你拿回这笔钱的概率有多大，什么时候能拿到，中间这段时间利率会是多少；不管你买的是一家按账面价值七折交易的银行，还是买一只按已披露盈利来看估值非常高的 Amazon，背后做的其实都是同一种计算。
As to the probabilities of getting that money and when you'll get it and what interest rates will be in between, and all the same calculation goes into it whether you're buying some bank at 70% of book value or you're buying Amazon at some very high multiple of reported earnings.
至于 Amazon——做出 Amazon 投资决定的人，绝对和当年我到处寻找那些股价低于营运资本的公司时一样，也是 value investor。
Amazon— the people making the decision on Amazon are absolutely as much value investors as I was when I was looking around for all these things selling below working capital years ago.
所以这一点并没有改变。
So that has not changed.
那两个人——其中一个做了 Amazon 这笔投资——他们在看的是几百只证券，而且他们能看的比我还多，因为他们管理的钱更少，所以他们可选择的范围也更大。
The 2 people that— one of whom made the investment in Amazon— they are looking at many hundreds of securities, and they can look at more than I can because they're managing less money and their universe, possible universe, is greater.
但他们找的，都是那些他们认为自己能看懂的公司：从现在到 Judgment Day 之间，这门生意最终会产出多少现金。
But they are looking for things that they feel they understand what will be developed by that business between now and Judgment Day in cash.
看的不是销售额。
And it's not sales.
当然，当下的销售额可能会有一点影响。
Current sales can make some difference.
当前的利润率也可能会有一点影响。
Current profit margins can make some difference.
有形资产、过剩现金、过多债务，所有这些因素都会放进计算里，来判断他们该买 A、还是 B、还是 C，而他们绝对是在遵循价值投资原则。
Tangible assets, excess cash, excess debt, all of those things go into making a calculation as to whether they should buy A versus B versus C, and they are absolutely following value principles.
他们不一定彼此认同，也不一定认同我，但他们非常聪明。
They don't necessarily agree with each other or agree with me, but they are very smart.
他们对 Berkshire 是全心投入的，而且除此之外，他们还是非常好的人。
They are totally committed to Berkshire, and they're very good human beings on top of it.
所以我不会对他们做的任何事事后指指点点。
So I don't second-guess them on anything.
Charlie 也不会对我事后指点——六十年来，他从来没有对我的任何一笔投资事后干预过。
Charlie doesn't second-guess me on— in 60 years, he's never second-guessed me on an investment.
而且，不管你买的是 Amazon，还是比如说一只从账面价值、盈利之类的统计指标上看起来很便宜的银行股，考虑问题的方式其实是完全一样的。
And the considerations are identical when you buy Amazon versus some, say, bank stock that looks cheap statistically against book value or earnings or something of the sort.
归根结底，一切都可以追溯到 Aesop 在公元前六百年说过的那句话：双鸟在林，不如一鸟在手。
In the end, it all goes back to Aesop, who in 600 BC said that a bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush.
当我们买 Amazon 的时候，我们会试着判断——或者说，买它的那位会试着判断——树林里到底是不是有三只、四只、还是五只鸟；要多久才能走到那片树林；他有多大把握自己能走到；以及会不会还有别人跑来把那片树林抢走，诸如此类。
And when we buy Amazon, we try and figure out whether— or the fellow that bought it tries to figure out whether there's 3 or 4 or 5 in the bush and how long it'll take to get to the bush, how certain he is that he's going to get to the bush, and who else is going to come and try and take the bush away, and all of that sort of thing.
我们做别的投资也是同样的道理。
And we do the same thing.
实际上，不管你在商学院会学到多少公式，最根本的那个公式还是 Aesop 的这个公式。
And it really, despite a lot of equations you'll learn in business school, the basic equation is that of Aesop.
而你投资能不能成功，取决于你有多擅长判断那片树林到底有多确定、离你有多远，以及最坏的情况会是什么。
And your success in investing depends on how well you are able to figure out how certain that bush is, how far away it is, and what the worst case is.
比如说，不是有两只鸟，而是只有一只；又或者有可能其实有四只、五只、十只，甚至二十只。
Instead of 2 birds being there, only one being there, and the possibilities of 4 or 5 or 10 or 20 being there.
这个会指引我，也会指引我在 Berkshire 负责投资管理的继任者，我觉得他们做对的时候会比做错的时候更多。
And that will guide me, that will guide my successors in investment management at Berkshire, and I think they'll be right more often than they're wrong.
Charlie？
Charlie?