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2001年股东大会 · 格雷厄姆的投资方法放到今天还有用吗?

53 段 · 3 位说话人 · 原片 5:52
M1
M10:00

大家下午好。

Good afternoon.

我叫 Martin O'Leary,来自 Texas 的 Houston。

My name is Martin O'Leary, and I'm from Houston, Texas.

我想问您的是:您在今年的年报里、给股东的信中提到,您是在五十年前认识 Benjamin Graham 的,而且他对您的人生,尤其是您投资上的成功,产生了非常重大的影响。

My question to you is this: in your annual report this year, in the letter to the shareholders, you indicated that it was 50 years ago that you met Benjamin Graham and that he had a major impact in your life, especially in your investment success.

另外,您以前也说过,The Intelligent Investor 到目前为止是有史以来最伟大的一本投资著作。

Moreover, you've stated in the past that The Intelligent Investor is by far the greatest book ever written on investing.
M2
M20:25

对。

Yes.
M1
M10:26

这本书里的一个核心原则是,如果你买入一组股票,比如十只或者二十只,这些股票的交易价格只有净流动资产的三分之二,或者更低,那么你就能确保有足够的安全边际,同时还能获得令人满意的回报率。

One of the central tenets in the book was that if you bought a group of stocks, say 10 or 20, that traded at 2/3 or less than net current assets, that you would be assured of a margin of safety coupled with a satisfactory rate of return.

那放到今天,如果您能找到十只或者二十只交易价格只有净流动资产三分之二的股票,您会不会倾向于把这些股票买进您个人的投资组合里,而不是为 Berkshire Hathaway 买?

Today, if you were to find 10 or 20 stocks that traded at 2/3 of net current assets, would you be inclined to purchase those stocks in your own personal portfolio, not for Berkshire Hathaway?

第二个问题,既然我提到了这本书,我也想请问一下,您和 Mr. Munger 最近都在读哪些书,也愿意推荐给大家?

And the second question, since I've mentioned the book, I was wondering which books that you and Mr. Munger have been reading lately and would recommend.

谢谢。

Thank you.
M2
M21:07

对,关于你的第一个问题,大概是这样:如果你能找到这样一组股票——不过我觉得你大概找不到——嗯,买下这一组的话,结果多半还是会不错。

Yeah, in respect to your first question, you could probably—if you found a group like that, and you won't, I don't think, uh, you'd probably do all right buying the group.

但不是因为这些企业本身随着时间推移会发展得多么好,而是因为这样一组公司里,很可能会发生相当一些公司层面的动作,比如管理层把公司私有化,或者被收购之类的事情。

But not because the businesses themselves worked out that well over time, but because there would probably be a reasonable amount of corporate activity in a group like that, either in terms of the managements taking them private or takeovers or that sort of thing.

不过这种低于营运资本的股票,现在几乎已经不可能找到了。

But those sub-working-capital stocks are just almost impossible to find now.

而且如果你进入的是一个有很多这类股票存在的市场,你大概也会发现,有很多非常好的企业卖得还要便宜得多。

And if you got into a market where a lot of them existed, you'd probably find wonderful businesses selling a lot cheaper too.

那我们的倾向会是去买那种便宜的优秀企业。

And our inclination would be to go with the cheap, wonderful business.

我觉得在一个高位市场里,或者接近高位的市场里——我觉得你已经很难再看到大量低于营运资本的股票了。

I don't think you'll get, in a high market or something close to it—I don't think you'll get a lot of sub-working-capital stocks anymore.

因为市场上的钱实在太多了,在公司真正跌到那个地步之前,就已经会有人去推动各种交易了。

There's just too much money around to promote deals before they, they really get to that point.

不过,那确实是一种方法。

But that was a technique.

那已经是五十年前的事了。

It was 50 years ago.

Walter Schloss 现在还在现场吗?

And is Walter Schloss here still?

Walter,你在吗?

Walter, are you here?

如果你在的话,站起来一下。

Stand up if you're here.

我是在五十年前认识 Ben Graham 的时候认识 Walter 的。

I met Walter 50 years ago when I met Ben Graham.

我知道 Walter 今年有来,不过他对我一直在讲的这些东西早就全都知道了,所以他可能已经走了。

I know Walter came out this year, but he already knows everything I've been talking about, so he may have left.

不过 Walter 在证券投资上的实践,其实更接近最原始的那一套方法。

But Walter actually has practiced in securities much closer to the original.

我想,他现在经营 partnership 已经有四十六年了。

He's run a partnership now for 46 years, I guess it is.

而且他做的,更多就是 Ben 当年讲的那类股票。

And he's done it much more with the type of stocks that Ben was talking about in those days.

他的业绩记录绝对是惊人的,比那些被大肆宣传、上电视节目、做各种那类事情的人要好得多。

And he has a record that is absolutely sensational, far better than people who get promoted and go on television shows and do all of that sort of thing.

而且他做的,怎么说呢,都是我倾向于称为 cigar butt companies 的公司。

And he's done it in, you know, what I tend to call cigar butt companies.

就是那种你还能免费再吸上一口,但也就只有这一口了,不过它们几乎不要钱。

You know, you get one free puff and that's about it, but they don't cost anything.

而那就是那种低于营运资本的情况。

And that was the sub-working-capital type situations.

Walter 后来不得不把那个稍微放宽一点,不过成绩还是非常非常亮眼。

Walter's had to extend that somewhat, but it's been a great, great record.

而且这是在一个相当长的时期里——我是说,四十六年,这可是非常非常长的一段时间。

Over a considerable— I mean, 46 years, a very considerable period of time.

所以我觉得,如果你找到那样一批标的,并且把它当成一种组合买入的操作来做——Ben 一直都很强调组合操作,因为当你买的是那些烂公司,但你又预期其中会有一定数量被收购之类的情况,那你最好手里有一篮子这样的公司。

So, I think if you found that kind of a group and did it as a group operation— and Ben always emphasized a group operation, because when you're dealing with lousy companies, but you expect a certain number to be taken over and all that, you better have a group of them.

但如果你买的是优秀公司,那你只需要几家就够了。

Whereas, if you deal with wonderful companies, you only need a couple.

不过我觉得,如果那样的时期再出现,我们会非常积极出手,但不会去买那一类证券。

But I think if you see that period again, we'll be very active, but it won't be in those kinds of securities.

Charlie?

Charlie?
M3
M33:50

对,还有另一个变化。

Yeah, and there's another change.

以前,如果一门生意做不下去了,你还可以把营运资本拿出来,装进股东的口袋里。

In the old days, if the business stopped working, you could take the working capital and stick it in the shareholders' pockets.

但现在,你从各种重组费用里也看得出来,

And nowadays, as you can tell from all the restructuring charges,

一旦事情真的彻底砸锅了,那些营运资本里,很大一部分其实已经归别人了。

when things really go to hell in a bucket, somebody else owns a lot of the working capital.

整个文化都变了。

The whole culture has changed.

比如你在法国有个小业务,后来你不想做了,就像 Marks & Spencer 那样,法国人会说,你他妈什么意思,还想把你的资本从法国拿回去?

If you have a little business in France and you get tired of it, as Marks & Spencer has, the French say, what the hell do you mean trying to take your capital back from France?

这门生意里有法国工人,他们才不管什么——他们不会说,这是你的营运资本,这生意对你不合适了,你就拿回去吧。

There are French workers in this business, and they don't care about— they don't say, it's your working capital, take it back when the business no longer works for you.

他们会说,这是我们的营运资本。

They say, it's our working capital.

在这一点上,整个文化都变了,虽然不是彻底变了,但跟 Ben Graham 那个时代相比,变化已经很大了。

The whole culture has changed on that one, not completely, but a lot from Ben Graham's day.

这也是为什么,一个时代里那些特殊的投资机会,没法那么完美地照搬到另一个时代。

There are a lot of reasons why the investment idiosyncrasies of one era don't translate that perfectly into another.
M2
M25:03

当年发表过一个名单——我忘了那是登在一九五一年版的《Security Analysis》里,还是一九四九年版的《The Intelligent Investor》里——里面列了一些公司。

That list that was published— I forget whether it was published in the 1951 edition of Security Analysis or the '49 edition of The Intelligent Investor— but there were a list of companies.

有 Sangamo,有 Marshall Wells,有 Cleveland Worsted Mills,还有 Foster Wheeler。

There was Sangamo, there was Marshall Wells, there was Cleveland Worsted Mills, there was Foster Wheeler.

这些公司全都是那种市值低于营运资本、而且市盈率只有三倍到四倍的公司。

And all those companies were sub-working-capital companies selling at 3 or 4 times earnings.

而且,你知道,如果你买上一组这样的股票,最后大概率会赚得不错。

And, you know, there was a— if you bought a group of stocks like that, you were going to do well.

但是,你知道,今天你肯定已经看不到任何稍微有点规模的公司还会是这种情况了。

But, you know, I would— you certainly don't see that in companies of any size today.

我倒是见过一些科技公司的名单,它们的股价低于现金价值,但它们又铁了心要把那笔现金花掉,所以一年两年之后,那些钱可能就没了。

And I've seen a few lists of tech companies selling below cash, but they're determined to use that cash, and it may not be there in a year or two.

所以说,Ben 当年那张名单里的公司,从某种程度上讲,是完全不同的一类东西。

It was a different breed of animal, to some extent, in Ben's list at that time.