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2016年,巴菲特谈特朗普当总统对美国的影响

45 段 · 3 位说话人 · 原片 5:45
M1
M10:00

这位提问的股东要求匿名。

This from a shareholder who asked to remain anonymous.

如果 Donald Trump 当选美国总统,再考虑到你公开批评过他、也公开支持 Hillary Clinton,你预计 Berkshire Hathaway 旗下这整个业务组合会面临哪些具体风险?不管是监管、政策,还是其他方面的。

If Donald Trump becomes the President of the United States, and recognizing your public criticism of him and your public support for Hillary Clinton, what specific risks, regulatory, policy, or otherwise, do you foresee for Berkshire Hathaway's portfolio of businesses?
M2
M20:20

那不会是主要问题。

That won't be the main problem.

这个嘛,你知道,政府对我们的业务、其实对所有企业来说,都是一个非常大的因素。

Well, government, you know, is a very big factor in our business and in all businesses.

我是说,有一些非常宽泛的政策,几乎会影响到每一个人;有时候也会出现一些相当具体的政策。

I mean, there's the very broad policies that affect practically everybody, and sometimes there can be some pretty specific policies.

不过我的判断是,如果 Donald——不管是 Donald Trump 还是 Hillary Clinton 当选、成为总统,而他们其中一个很可能、非常可能会当选,我觉得 Berkshire 还是会继续经营得很好。

But I will predict that if Donald— either Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton is elected, becomes president, and one of them is likely to be, very likely to be, I think Berkshire will continue to do fine.

Charlie?

Charlie?
M3
M31:02

这个话题我有点不敢展开说。

I'm afraid to get into this area.
M2
M21:07

对,我们什么情况都经历过——我是说,我们在价格管制之下也经营过。

Yeah, we've operated under all— I mean, we've operated under price controls.

我是说,多年来我们的利润一直适用百分之五十二的联邦税率。

I mean, we've had 52% federal taxes applied to our earnings for many years.

甚至——我是说,在别的时候税率还更高过,不过你知道,各种监管我们也都遇到过。

Even— I mean, they were higher at other times, but there have been, you know, we've had regulations come along.

但归根结底,这个国家的商业在过去两百年里表现得异常出色,而且它已经适应了这个社会,这个社会也适应了商业。

And in the end, business in this country has done extraordinarily well for a couple of hundred years, and it has adapted to the society, and the society's adapted to business.
M1
M11:47

对。

Yeah.
M2
M21:48

你知道,这里真的是一个非常有吸引力、非常适合做生意的地方。

You know, it— this is a remarkably attractive place in which to conduct a business.

你想想看,在一个利率几乎接近于零的世界里,美国企业居然还能在有形净资产上赚到非常惊人的回报。

Imagine in a world of practically zero interest rates, you know, American business earning terrific returns on tangible equity.

我是说,那些才是真正投入到企业经营里的资产。

I mean, those are the assets that were actually employed in the business.

这些数字大得惊人。

The numbers are staggering.

而且,你知道,那些把钱放在储蓄账户之类地方的人,基本上被伤得很惨。

And, you know, people who've had their money in savings accounts or something like that get destroyed.

但是企业的拥有者,如果你去看看有形净资产回报率,哪天可以自己查一查,他们其实并没有像那些持有固定利率、固定收益工具的人那样遭受重创;后者可是损失非常大。

But owners of business, if you look at returns on tangible equity, just check them out sometime, and they have not suffered even as people who own fixed interest, fixed income instruments have suffered enormously.

还有,你知道,现在农产品价格下来了。

And, you know, farm prices are down now.

过去这几年,农民收入下降了很多,但企业还是设法照顾好了自己,而且这是有充分理由的,因为企业既推动了市场经济,也是市场经济的引擎,而这个市场经济创造出来的产出之高,放在一百年前,几乎是谁都难以想象的。

Farmer income has fallen off a lot in the last couple of years, but business has managed to take care of itself, and for a good reason, because it contributes to and has been the engine of a market economy that's delivered output that is staggering by the imagination of anyone that might have existed 100 years ago.

在我的一生里,美国按实际购买力计算的人均 GDP,已经涨到了原来的六倍。

In my lifetime, the GDP per capita in real terms of the United States has gone up 6 for 1.

你能想象吗?在一个社会里,一个人的一生当中,整体上的实际产出变成了他出生时的六倍。

Can you imagine that, you know, in a society where in one person's lifetime overall people have 6 times the real output that they had at the beginning?

这个体系,你知道,就总体产出来说,运转得非常好。

It's, you know, the system works very well in terms of aggregate output.

但在这些产出的分配上,有时候它会差得很远。

In terms of distribution of that output, sometimes it can fall very short.

这是我的看法。

My view.

不过它还会继续运转下去。

But it'll keep working.

这一点你不用担心,亲爱的。

You don't have to worry about that, dear.

二十年后,美国按实际购买力计算的人均产出,会比现在高得多。

20 years from now, there'll be far more output per capita in the United States in real terms than there is now.

五十年后会高得更多,而且质量也会变得更好。

In 50 years, it'll be far more, and the quality will get better.

而且,没有哪个总统候选人或者总统能终结这一点。

And no presidential candidate or president is going to end that.

他们可以,他们可以用好的或者坏的方式去塑造它,但他们没法终结它。

They can, they can shape it in ways that are good or bad, but they can't end it.

那,Charlie,你来说点悲观的,平衡一下我这边。

Now, Charlie, give something pessimistic here to balance me out.
M3
M34:06

不,我想说点乐观的。而且我觉得,GDP 数据大大低估了我们的制度给公民带来的真实优势。

No, I want to say something optimistic, and I think that the GDP figures greatly understate the real advantage that our system has given our citizens.

它对很多巨大的成就权重给低了,因为那些成就没法用一种经济学家容易处理的方式,直接转化成钱。

It underweights a lot of huge achievements because they don't translate right into money in a certain way that the economists can easily handle.

但如果说过去这一百年来真正取得的成就,那要比 GDP 数据显示出来的高得多,而 GDP 数据本身其实已经不错了。

But the real achievements over the last century, say, are way higher than are indicated by the GDP figures, and the GDP figures are good.

我不认为未来一定会像过去那么好,但其实也不需要。

I don't think the future is necessarily going to be quite as good as the past, but it doesn't have to be.
M2
M24:53

至少以我的经验来看,你几乎碰不到谁会说,在我拥有同样天赋的情况下,我倒希望自己是活在五十年前,或者早五十年出生。

There's no one you'll run into, at least in my experience, that says, with my same talents, I wish I'd lived 50 years ago instead, been born 50 years earlier.

但美国公众里有相当大一部分人觉得,和他们出生的那个年代相比,今天不是个适合出生的好时候。

But a significant majority of the American public thinks that it's a bad time to be born today compared to when they were born.

他们觉得差距还不到五十年。

They think it's shorter than that.

他们错了。

They're wrong.

我的意思是,这个节奏,创新的节奏。

I mean, it's the pace, the pace of innovation.

你想想看,跟二十年前相比,你现在的生活有多不一样,尤其是你怎么支配自己的时间。

Just think how different, well, your living is compared to 20 years ago in terms of what you do with your time.

当然,很多人可能会批评这种变化,或者类似的事,但你现在做的是自由选择,而这些选择在二十年前你根本没有。你现在做出的选择方向也不一样。比如说,我到现在还在用座机,但你们这些人已经远远走在我前面了。

Now, a lot of people may condemn it or something of the sort, but you're making free choices that were not available to you 20 years ago, and you're making them in a different direction than, you know, I'm still sitting with the landline, but you people are way ahead of me.

好,Greg。

Okay, Greg.