M21:21
我想可以公平地说，Charlie 和我，不管是买证券还是买企业，我们从来没有看过任何预测。
Charlie and I, I think it's fair to say we've never looked at a projection in connection with either a security we've bought or a business we've bought.
当然，别人给我们塞过来的预测，多得很。
We've had them offered to us in great quantities.
而且，人家试图硬塞给我们的时候，我们是主动把它们挡回去的。我的意思是——这些东西被卖企业的人，或者给董事会做汇报的高管，准备得那么细，那么认真，你知道，我的意思是，要么是我们错了，要么就是他们错了。
Now, the fact that we voluntarily turned them away when people tried to thrust them upon us, I mean, it— The very fact that they are prepared so meticulously by the people who are selling the businesses or by the executives who are presenting to their boards and all of that sort of thing, you know, I mean, either we're wrong or they're wrong.
我的意思是，十次里大概有九次，这就是管理层为了给他们一开始就想做的事找个正当理由，而走的一套仪式。
I mean, it's a ritual that managers go through to justify doing what they wanted to do in the first place in about 9 cases out of 10.
对。
Yeah.
我从来没有，你知道，我从来没见过哪个高管想买什么东西，最后说，嗯，我只好放弃了，因为预测算不过去。
I have never, you know, I have never met an executive who wanted to buy something that said, well, I had to turn it down because the projections didn't work.
我的意思是，这种事就从来没发生过。
I mean, it just, it's never happened.
而且总会有人能做出一套预测，来满足那个给他发工资的人，或者那个会签下能带来佣金交易的人。
And there will always be somebody that will come up with the projections that will satisfy the guy who's signing his paycheck or who will sign the deal that provides the commissions.
然后他们再把这些东西递给其他需要被说服的人，银行家也好，投资人也好
And they will pass those along to whomever else they need, the bankers or the investors
还有董事会，好让他们批准。
board to approve it.
这完全是胡扯。
And it is total nonsense.
我最近就碰到过一次——一个场合里，预测是整个陈述的一部分。
I was recently involved in some— in a situation where projections were a part of the presentation.
然后我就要求，把那些做预测的人过去的预测记录，也在同一时间一起拿出来展示。
And I asked that the record of the people who made the projections, their past projections, also be presented at the same time.
这——这被看成是个非常无礼的举动，而且——
It was— It was a very rude act, and—