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2005年股东大会 · 巴菲特回忆自己是如何走上投资之路的。

82 段 · 3 位说话人 · 原片 8:32
M1
M10:00

谢谢。

I'm Dudley Schroeder from Council Bluffs, Iowa.
M2
M20:04

这是一个很简单的行业。

What—.
M1
M10:04

您年轻的时候,最初是什么激发了您对投资的兴趣?如果一个年轻人想投资股市,您会给他什么建议?

When you were younger, what first sparked your interest in investing, and what advice would you give a younger person if they wanted to invest in the stock market?

谢谢。

Thank you.
M2
M20:15

嗯,也不能完全这么说。我大概是在七岁左右开始对这件事产生兴趣的。

Well, I'm not exactly— I got interested probably when I was maybe 7 or thereabouts.

在那之前,我都是在浪费时间。

I wasted my time before that.

这有点像 W.C. Fields 当年继承了一笔钱的时候。

It's a little like W.C. Fields when he inherited some money.

有人问他把那笔钱拿去干嘛了,他说一半花在了 whiskey 上,剩下那一半都浪费掉了。

Somebody asked him what he did with it, and he said he spent half of it on whiskey and the rest he wasted.

所以我当时就那么晃来晃去,不过后来我进了这一行——我爸本来就是做这个的。

So there I was dawdling around, but I got into— my dad was in the business.

所以我就会去他的办公室,然后我会看到那些很有意思的书,我就会拿来读。

So I would go down to his office and I would see these interesting books and I would read them.

我会走下楼去——他当时在现在叫作 Omaha Building 的那栋楼的四楼,位置就在第十七街和 Farnam 街的交叉口。

And I would go down— he was on the 4th floor of what's now known as the Omaha Building at 17th and Farnam.

二楼是 Harris, Upham and Company。

And on the 2nd floor was Harris, Upham and Company.

他们那儿还有块布告板,我会走到那边去看。

And they had a board and I would go down there.

那时候周六股市也开盘,所以我可以——开两个小时。这样我就能在周六过去,看着行情带上不断闪过各种有意思的东西。

The market was open on Saturdays in those days, so I could— for 2 hours, so I could go down on Saturday and I saw all these interesting things going across the tape.

我就是读了很多书。

And I just read a lot.

不过,我大概把 Omaha Public Library 里每一本书都借来看了,基本上凡是他们有的、讲投资或者股市的书,我都看过。

I took— probably took every book in the Omaha Public Library, though, and every book they had on investing or the stock market, basically.

我当时对 New York Stock Exchange 特别感兴趣。

I was very interested in the New York Stock Exchange.

我当时想,等我长大以后,也许会成为一名专业人士,说不定现在我还会这么想。

I thought maybe I'd want to become a specialist when I grew up, and maybe I still will.

不过——我把那些书全都找出来读了。最后,我十一岁的时候买了三股股票,当时我什么都不懂。

But the— I took all the books out, I read them, and finally, when I was 11, I bought 3 shares of stock and I didn't know.

我,我当时特别着迷这个东西。

I, I was fascinated by the subject.

我爸后来当选了国会议员,所以那时候图书馆就变得更大了,我把那里面所有能借出来的、跟市场有关的书,全都借来看。

My dad got elected to Congress, so now the library became even bigger, and I took all the books I could out of there on, on, on markets.

我以前还会画走势图,做这类事情。

And I used to chart and do all that sort of thing.

然后最后,我十九岁在 University of Nebraska 的时候,读了 Graham 的那本书《The Intelligent Investor》,那一下子就彻底改变了我整个的思考框架。

And then finally I read Graham's book when I was at the University of Nebraska, The Intelligent Investor, when I was 19, and that just changed my whole framework.

不过,我会给你的建议是,把眼前能读到的东西都读一读,你知道,而且要越早开始越好。

But the advice I would give is to read everything in sight, you know, and to start very young.

在几乎所有领域,早点开始都有很大的优势。

It's a huge advantage in almost any field to start young.

如果这正是你感兴趣的方向,而且你很早就开始,多读点书,那你一定会做得不错。

And if that's where your interest lies, and you start young, and you read a lot, you're going to do well.

我的意思是,这个行业里没有什么只有少数内行人才知道的秘密。

I mean, there are no secrets in this business that only the priesthood knows.

我的意思是,你知道,我们不会跑到什么神庙里,去看那些只有通过了前面考验的人才能看到的石碑之类的东西。

I mean, you know, we do not go into temples and look at tablets that are only available to those who have passed earlier tests or anything.

白纸黑字都写得清清楚楚。

It's all out there in black and white.

这是一门很简单的生意。

It's a simple business.

这不是那种主要靠智力素质的事,它更需要的是性格上的特质。

It's not—it requires qualities of temperament way more than it requires qualities of intellect.

我是说,如果你的智商超过一百二十五,剩下那些分数你都可以扔掉,或者分给家里其他人,怎么都行,因为做投资用不着那么多。

I mean, if you've got more than 125 IQ, you can throw away the rest of the points or give them to your other members of the family or do something because you don't need it in investing.

但你确实需要,你确实需要,呃,一种特定的性格气质,让你能够独立思考。

But you do need, you do need, uh, a certain temperament that enables you to think for yourself.

然后你还得建立一个框架,而我的这个框架是通过读 Ben Graham 的东西建立起来的。

And then you have to, you have to develop a framework, and I developed it from reading Ben Graham.

这不是我自己凭空想出来的。

I didn't come up with it myself.

是个非常简单的框架。

Very simple framework.

然后,在你的人生过程中,你要去寻找那些符合这个框架的机会,而且你不可能每天都做点什么。

And then you have to look for opportunities that fit within that framework as you go through life, and you can't do something every day.

你知道,你可以每天都学习,但你不能每天都行动。

You know, you can learn every day, but you can't act every day.

我刚才说过,我连续二十五年都在读 Anheuser-Busch 的年报,但其实在我们投资 Coca-Cola、Gillette,还有很多其他公司之前很久,我就一直在读它们的报告了。

And I talked about reading the annual reports of Anheuser-Busch for 25 years, but I'd read the reports of Coca-Cola and Gillette and all kinds of companies long before we invested in them.

如果你享受这个游戏,你会发现它就像打 bridge、打棒球之类的事情一样。

And if you enjoy the game, you know, you'll find that like playing bridge or playing baseball or whatever.

如果你不享受它,那你多半也做不好。

And if you don't enjoy it, you probably won't.

做不好这件事。

Do well on it.

不过我会建议你尽早开始,把能看到的东西都读一读,去寻找那些已经被证明对别人有效的、成功的框架。

But I would advise you to start early, read everything in sight, look for the successful, uh, framework that's been successful for people.

在我看来,没有什么比 Graham 的那一套更好的了。

And there's nothing like Graham's, in my view.

这样你会得到很多乐趣,而且你很可能还会赚到很多钱。

And you'll have a lot of fun, and you'll probably make a lot of money.

Charlie?

Charlie?
M3
M34:16

嗯,我在这方面稍微有点吃亏。

Well, I'm at a little disadvantage here.

Warren 从小就把自己打造成了某种投资界的院长级人物,而且他比我更尊重这整个过程。

Warren has made himself into kind of a dean of investors, starting as a boy, and he has a greater respect for the process than I do.

我挺认同 Keynes 的一种看法,就是和当外科医生或者做很多别的事情相比,资金管理某种程度上算不上多高尚的职业。

I have a good bit of Keynes's attitude that money management is sort of a low calling compared to being a surgeon or a lot of other things.

我觉得企业界的人,企业管理者,应该把投资学得更明白一点,因为那样他们会成为更好的管理者。

I think the corporate types, the corporate managers, ought to study investing better because they'd be better managers.

而且我觉得,任何认真把投资这个过程想明白的人,都会更懂这个世界是怎么运转的。

And I think that everyone who thinks through the investment process learns more about how the world works.

是真正怎么运转的。

Really works.

我觉得这一点非常有价值。

And I think that's very worth having.

但我不喜欢现在 GDP 里有这么高比例流向资金管理,以及随之而来的各种摩擦成本。

But I do not like as big a percentage of GDP as we now have going to money management and its attendant frictions.

我也不喜欢全国这么大一部分最聪明的头脑,现在都投入到这些各种形式、报酬又特别高的资金管理工作里。

And I don't like the percentage of the nation's brainpower that is now in all of these different forms of highly compensated money management.

我觉得这对这个国家不是好事。

I don't think it's a good thing for the country.

而且,呃,我也很不喜欢这样一个事实:由于我们自己的偏好,我们也在某种程度上助长了这件事。

And, uh, I hate the fact that we've contributed to it by our own predilections.
M2
M25:25

Charlie 现在会坐在我旁边,其实只是因为他在做他的公共接触项目。

Charlie is only sitting up here next to me as part of his outreach program, actually.

请别拍那种以后可以拿来勒索他的照片,毕竟他现在是跟我坐在一块儿。

Please don't take any pictures that you could blackmail him with, being associated with me.

Charlie 刚才提了一个很好的观点,就是如果管理者更懂投资,他们会做得更好。

Charlie made a very good point there about how managers could do better if they understood investments.

我觉得这实在太有意思了,而且我这一辈子里一直都看到这种现象。

I find it absolutely fascinating, and I've seen this throughout my life.

我还是近距离看到的。

I've seen it close up.

我有些朋友是公司的 CEO,可他们会让别人来打理自己的钱。

I will have friends who are CEOs of companies, and they'll have somebody else handle their money.

你要是问他们,你觉得该买 Coca-Cola 还是 Gillette 之类的,他们就会说,那太难了。

If you say to them, you know, should you buy Coca-Cola or Gillette or something like that, they'll say, that's much too tough.

那种事情我可搞不懂。

I don't understand that sort of thing.

投资这事我懂什么呀?

What do I know about investing?

可第二天就会有某个 investment banker 走进来,提议他们去买一家三十亿美元的公司,而这本质上也不过就是买下一家公司大量的股票。

And then some investment banker will walk in the next day with the idea they buy a $3 billion company, which is just buying a lot of shares of stock of one company.

然后他们花上两个小时做个小演示,再把这事交给战略规划团队,就觉得接下来应该由他们来决定要不要买下价值几十亿美元的企业;可实际上,他们连拿自己的一万美元做决定都觉得自己没那个资格。

And they'll run through some little 2-hour presentation and turn it over to a strategic planning group and think that they are then the ones that should make that decision as to whether to buy multi-billion-dollar businesses when they really don't feel they're qualified to, to make $10,000 decisions with their own money.

而且你看看 corporate America 里那些并购活动,真是很不寻常。这可不是什么光鲜事,你知道,就有点像人们说的,做香肠和立法一样。

And it's, it's extraordinary what you see in corporate America in the acquisition activity. It's not - it's, you know, it's a little like they say about making sausage and making laws.

最好别亲眼去看。

It's better unobserved.

Charlie,你对这个还有什么想法吗?

Charlie, do you have any further thoughts on that?

你跟我一起见过很多这种事。

You've seen a lot of it with me.
M3
M37:01

嗯,我确实认为,当下这个时代,在资本主义过去的历史里找不到可以类比的先例。

Well, I do think that the present era has no comparable precedent in the past history of capitalism.

我觉得,我们这些聪明人当中,有更高比例的人把注意力都放在买卖一小张一小张的纸上,呃,还有,就是想靠这个发财,以及参与那种带着高额分成费用的推广活动。

I think we have a higher percentage of the attention of our intelligent classes into buying little pieces of paper and, and, uh, and, and getting - trying to get rich doing it, and in promotional activities with big profit-sharing fees.

呃,我想不出过去有哪个时代,会像现在这样,把这么多精力集中在这种活动上。

Uh, I can recall no past era which had a similar concentration of this type of activity.

你能想到吗,Warren?

Can you, Warren?
M2
M27:40

不能,不过我想你大概也会同意,我们以前看到这种现象的婴儿版时,后来总会发生点什么。

No, but I think you would say probably too that when we've seen sort of baby versions of this, something subsequently happened that -.
M3
M37:49

哦,会的。要是你想谈谈未来会有什么影响,我现在看到的很多东西,都会让我想起 Sodom and Gomorrah。

Oh yes, if you want to talk about what are the future implications, a lot that I see now kind of reminds me of Sodom and Gomorrah.
M2
M28:00

顺便说一句,我们当时可不在现场。

And we weren't there, incidentally.
M3
M38:02

我的意思是,没有,不过这事是有公开记载的。

I mean - No, but but there's a published account.

而且,我觉得当这种让人遗憾的行为越来越多,还在一阵阵嫉妒和模仿的狂热中不断自我强化的时候,过去的经验表明,坏后果就会随之而来。

And, uh, and I think when you get as much sort of regrettable activity going on and sort of feeding on itself in frenzies of envy and imitation, that, uh, it has happened in the past that there came bad consequences.
M2
M28:30

带着这么个轻松愉快的结尾,我们来进入第五题。

On that cheery note, we'll move to number 5.