M20:31
这个问题的答案是，我们现在已经不再看这类机会了。
Well, the answer to that is that we don't look anymore.
我们假设，如果你管理的资金规模更小，那市场上会有相当数量的机会，因为一直以来都是这样。
We assume that there are a reasonable number of opportunities as you work with smaller amounts of capital, because it's always been true.
我的意思是，这些年我在看各种机会的时候，很明显，规模越小，你碰到那些被关注得更少的公司机会就越多；而且当你面对的是一个你一个月可以买进十万美元，而不是一亿美元的标的时，出现低效定价的可能性也更大。
I mean, it was over the years as I looked at things, clearly you run into companies that are less followed as you get smaller, and there's more chances for inefficiency when you're dealing with something where you can buy $100,000 worth of it in a month rather than $100 million.
但这并不是说，我脑子里一直装着二十五家我们可以投十万美元进去的公司名字。
But that is not because I'm carrying around in my head the names of 25 companies that we could put $100,000 in.
我只是已经不再看那个范围里的机会了。
I just don't look at that universe anymore.
有时候人们会给我寄 annual report，或者我会收到经理人的来信，他们会说，你知道，我这儿有个特别棒的东西。
Sometimes people send me annual reports or I get letters from managers and they say, you know, I've got this wonderful thing.
然后我会看——通常我其实事先就知道了——但我的意思是，我第一眼会先看规模。如果规模不合适，而且几乎在任何时候都不会合适，那我就不会再往下看了，因为根本没有时间去看各种小机会。
And I look— I usually know ahead of time, but I mean, I would first look at the size. And if the size isn't right, and it isn't going to be virtually any time, I don't look any further because there's just no time to be looking at all kinds of smaller opportunities.
不过我确实觉得，如果你操作的是非常小的一笔钱，那几乎总能在某个地方找到明显的低效机会，找到那些——我跟一些人提过，我刚开始的时候，真的把所有的 Moody's manuals 和 Standard & Poor's manuals 一页一页全翻过。
I do think if you're working with very small amounts of money that there almost always is some significant inefficiency someplace to find things that— I've mentioned to some people, when I started out, I actually went through all of the Moody's manuals and the Standard & Poor's manuals page by page.
你可以——你知道，那大概有两万页，但里面确实会蹦出很多东西，而且这些东西不在任何券商报告里，也不是那一类信息。
And you could— and, you know, it's probably 20,000 pages, but there were a lot of things that popped out, and none of them were in any brokerage report or anything of the sort.
它们就是单纯被忽略了。
They were just plain overlooked.
你得自己去发现——你是能把它们找出来的，但不会有人主动告诉你。
And you had to— you could find out about them, but nobody was going to tell you about them.
我的猜测是，现在这种情况依然存在，只不过规模完全不像以前那么大了。嗯，我记得你年轻的时候，还买过某个 duck club 的一个会员份额，那个地方下面正好有石油。
And my guess is that that continues to be true, but not on anything like the scale it was. Well, I can remember when you bought one membership in some duck club that had oil under it when you were young.
对，有一家叫——当你都研究到一个 duck club 的单个会员份额时，那你真是在到处捡 cigar butt 了。
Yeah, there was a company called— when you get down to one duck club membership, well, you're really scavenging for cigar butts.
不过还不算是个差的 cigar butt。
But not a bad cigar butt.
它总共只有九十八股流通在外。
There were 98 shares outstanding.
它叫 Delta Duck Club，Delta Duck Club 是一百个人创办的，每人出了五十美元，不过其中有两个人没交钱。
It was the Delta Duck Club, and the Delta Duck Club was founded by 100 guys who put in $50 each, except 2 fellows didn't pay.
所以实际上只有九十八股流通在外。
So there were only 98 shares outstanding.
他们在 Louisiana 南部买了一块地，有一次有人开枪的时候不是朝上打，而是朝下打，结果石油和天然气就从地下喷出来了。
They bought a piece of land down in Louisiana, and one time somebody shot downward instead of upward, and oil and gas started spewing forth out of the ground.
所以他们后来把名字改成了 Atled，也就是 Delta 倒过来拼，这多少也体现了这帮人的“高深”程度。
So they renamed it Atled, which is Delta spelled backwards, which sort of illustrated the sophistication of this group.
几年之后，在每桶油三美元的价格下，他们每年光从那块地拿到的 royalty 就大概有一百万美元。
And a few years later, they were taking up— at $3 a barrel oil, they were taking about $1 million a year in royalties
而那只股票当时每股卖两万九千美元，每股能赚一万美元。
out of the place, and the stock was selling at $29,000 a share, and it was earning $10,000 a share.
不，对，应该是税后每股大概赚七千美元，税前大概一万一千美元，而且每股大概还有两万美元现金。
No, it was earning about— turning about $7,000 a share after tax, about $11,000 pre-tax, and it had about $20,000 a share in cash.
而且那还是个寿命很长的油田。
And it was a long-lived field.
所以你知道，我有时候会拿那个来当作有效市场的一个例子，因为当时有人打电话给我，说要卖我一股那个——这种事情，你说这算是有效市场吗，还是不算？
So, you know, I use that sometimes as an example of efficient markets because somebody called me and offered me a share of it, and—those things, you know, is that an efficient market or not?
你知道，花两万九千美元，买到两万美元现金，再加上一万一千美元的 royalty income，而且那还是在天然气每单位二十五美分、石油三美元的时候？
You know, $29,000 for $20,000 of cash plus $11,000 of royalty income at 25-cent gas and $3 oil?
我可不这么认为。
I don't think so.
但是市场上确实能找到这种东西。
But you can find things out there.
以后我所有 duck clubs 的狩猎权，我都可以给你。
I'll give you hunting rights on all my duck clubs in the future.
[Zone 1]
[Zone 1]