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1998年股东大会 · 现在难以想象,但在90年代末困扰股市的电脑“千年虫”问题

22 段 · 3 位说话人 · 原片 2:28
F1
F10:00

是的,我叫 Patty Buffett,来自新墨西哥州的 Albuquerque。

Yes, my name is Patty Buffett and I'm from Albuquerque, New Mexico.
M1
M10:03

我喜欢你的名字。

I like your name.

谢谢。

Thanks.
F1
F10:06

你认为,2000年合规问题会对美国股市和全球经济产生什么影响?

In your opinion, what effect will the Year 2000 compliance issue have on the U.S. stock market and the global economy?
M1
M10:15

关于2000年问题,我听到过各种不同的报告。不过,我听到的主要说法是,我想你知道,我们……你可能不该依赖我的判断,但你可以相信我们的管理层。我觉得我们的情况不错。

Well, I get different reports on 2000, but the main report I hear—I think, you know, we—you wouldn't want to rely on me on this, but you could rely on our managers, and I think we're in good shape.

为了做好迎接2000年的准备,我们确实要花一些钱,但金额不会特别大。

It's costing us some money, but not huge amounts of money, to be prepared for 2000.

我担任董事的那些公司,我听到的数字就比较可观了。

With companies at which I'm a director, you know, I hear some reasonably good-sized numbers.

这些数字都写在它们的年度报告里,并且说明了合规成本。

Those numbers are in their annual reports and described as to the cost of compliance.

但那些比我懂得多的人告诉我,他们认为最薄弱的环节可能在政府这边。

But what I'm told by people that know a lot more than I do is that they think probably that the weakest link may be in government.

就它们相对于商业部门的进度而言,也就是能不能在2000年之前达到所需的水平,我认为有些国家、州和地方政府,以及外国政府的部分领域,确实已经落后了。

I think that in terms of where they stand versus the commercial sector, in terms of reaching where they need to be by 2000, there are some areas of both national, state, and local governments, and foreign governments, where they're really behind the curve.

当然,这不是我独立做出的判断。不过有人说,千年交替前午夜五秒打电话时,一定要非常小心,因为你可能会被收取一百年的电话费,你知道吧。

Now, that is not an independent judgment of mine, but somebody said you want to be very careful about making a phone call at five seconds before midnight at the millennium because you may get charged for 100 years, you know.

所以,这会很有意思。

So it'll be interesting.

我不认为这会以任何实质性的方式影响 Berkshire,而且我确实觉得,全世界会非常轻松地熬过这一关。

I don't think it's—I don't think it's going to affect Berkshire in any material way, and I certainly have a feeling that the world will get past it very easily.

但对一些公司来说,这件事正在变得很昂贵;而对政府来说,成本会高得多。

But it is turning—it is expensive for some companies, and it's going to be very expensive for governments.
M2
M21:46

是啊,我觉得有意思的是,它居然会成为这么大的问题。

Yeah, I find it interesting that it is such a problem.

你知道,2000年会到来,这本来是可以预见的。

You know, it was predictable that the year 2000 would come.
M1
M11:56

对,对,对,其实我们早在一九八五年就决定了这一点。

Yeah, yeah, yeah, we decided that back in 1985, actually.

不过别误会,我们可没有欢迎它的到来。

We didn't welcome it, understand.

但那也不是 Berkshire 的风格。

That's not Berkshire's style, though.

你想想看,这确实很不可思议,不是吗?一大群智商一百六十的人,居然能把问题搞到这么严重。

It is fascinating, isn't it, when you think about it, that a whole bunch of people with 160 IQs could build up such a problem?

但事实就是这样,所以我们才坚持做简单的事情。

But here we are, and that's why we stick with simple things.

第十个问题。

Number 10.