M20:21
对，不过如果我现在能轻个二十磅左右，我大概会觉得自己更有资格谈自律。
Yeah, I would feel somewhat better qualified to speak on self-discipline if I weighed about 20 pounds less.
这个我们暂时先不管。
For the moment, we'll ignore that.
你问题的第二部分，就是关于内在价值会不会下降——其实，如果你把内在价值算成未来现金流折现后的价值，那这个计算本身就应该把这样一个事实包含进去：有些企业未来赚的钱会比现在少。
The, uh, the, the second part of your question relating to intrinsic value going down—actually, if you compute intrinsic value as reflecting the discounted value of future cash flows, that should have built into it a calculation that allows for the fact that certain businesses are going to earn less in the future than now.
不是说到那个时候它的内在价值才下降，因为你现在就应该把这一点放进计算里。
It isn't that their intrinsic value goes down then, because you should build it into your calculation right now.
不过你知道，像我们过去很多次说过的，内在价值这个东西非常重要，但也非常模糊。
But, you know, as we've pointed out many times in the past, intrinsic value is terribly important and very fuzzy.
我们会尽最大努力，只在那种我们觉得自己把握最高、判断相当有把握的企业里去运用这个方法，而这样一来，很多很多公司就被排除在外了。
And we do our best to work with— in the kind of businesses where we think that we have the highest probabilities, where our predictions are of a fairly highly probable nature, and that leaves out all kinds of companies.
比如说，像 natural gas pipeline 这样的业务，通常就比较好判断。
It's pretty good, we'll say, at something like a natural gas pipeline.
我的意思是，一条 pipeline 出现巨大意外的可能性，理论上应该是相对比较小的。
I mean, the chances of big surprises in a pipeline should be relatively small.
当然这不代表完全没有，只是相对比较小。
That doesn't mean they're zero, but they're relatively small.
现在，假设你有一条 gas pipeline——有些公司确实是这样——它要么面临天然气供应逐渐减少，要么面临竞争对手的 pipeline 试图抢走你的合同，而这些合同是你十年前签的、两年后就到期了，到时候你就不得不降价。
Now, let's assume that you had a gas pipeline, which some have, where either the supply of gas is going to run down, or where there are competitive pipelines that may be trying to take away your contracts that you wrote 10 years ago and expire in 2 years, and you're going to have to cut prices.
我会说，两年后你不得不降价时，如果你今天已经正确地做了计算，并且把未来利润率会低于今天这个事实算进去了，那么它的内在价值并不是到那时才比今天下降。
I would say that 2 years from now, when you have to cut prices, the intrinsic value hasn't gone down from today if you properly calculate it today and build in the fact that profit margins in the future will be lower than today.
我们最近看过一家 pipeline 公司，我们觉得它会受到竞争性价格压力的冲击，因为还有别的 pipeline 可以把 gas 运到市场，形成替代路径。
We looked at a pipeline recently where we think they are going to be vulnerable to competitive price pressures because of alternate ways of getting gas to market through other pipelines.
于是计算结果就完全不一样——不是计算方法不一样，而是结果不一样，因为这条 pipeline 和那种低成本 pipeline 不一样——那种是把 gas 从一个市场运到另一个市场的低成本通道。
And the calculation is entirely different—the calculation isn't different, the results are different in terms of that pipeline versus a pipeline that is the low-cost pipeline—bringing gas from one market to another.
而且它以后仍然会是最低成本的提供者。
And will remain the low-cost producer.
但关键不是——如果计算得当，你一开始就要把未来经营利润下滑的预期算进去。
But it isn't—if properly calculated, you build in the prediction of decline in future operating earnings.
你不能等到事情真的发生了，才开始预判。
You don't wait till you get there to anticipate it.
你知道，Charlie 有句名言，他只想知道自己会死在哪里，这样他就永远不会去那里。
You know, Charlie's famous for saying that all he wants to know is where he's going to die, so he'll never go there.
这其实就是商业预测的一部分。
Well, that's part of predicting in business.
我是说，我一直很喜欢——我是真的从来没见过 investment banker 做的材料。
I mean, there—I love the—I really have never seen an investment banker's book.
我希望有一天能见到一本，也希望到时候自己不会被震惊到受不了——因为在那种待售企业的材料里，企业盈利居然会往下掉。
I hope to see one someday, and I hope I can survive the shock when I do see it, where the earnings of the business being offered go down.
很多企业的盈利都会下降，而且就是会下降。
Lots of businesses' earnings go down, and they're going to go down.
可我总是看到这些胡扯，你知道，他们把未来十年一路往外推，结果永远都是一路上涨。
And I get all this nonsense, you know, where they project it out for 10 years and it always goes up.
这根本不是真实世界，你必须认真分析企业。
It just isn't the real world, and you have to analyze businesses.
有些企业将来会承受巨大的竞争压力，而这种压力今天根本还不存在。
Some businesses are going to be subjected to enormous competitive pressures that aren't extant today.
比如说，我们在 Dexter Shoe 上就犯过这样的错误。
And we made that mistake, for example, at Dexter Shoe.
我的意思是，我们买下了一家税前利润大概四千万美元的企业，然后我们假设未来会和过去一样好。
I mean, we bought a business that was earning $40 million or so pre-tax, and we assumed that the future would be as good as the past.
结果我们当时完全错了——我当时真的是大错特错。
And we couldn't have been more— I couldn't have been more wrong.
所以那就是一种把未来的竞争环境往后投射的情况，可那些竞争条件到了未来其实并不会存在。
So that was a case of projecting into the future conditions which were not going to exist in the future, competitive conditions.
这也是做生意的一部分。
That's part of, you know, that's part of business.
我可以告诉你，Fortune 500 里面有百分之二十——不过我不知道具体是哪百分之二十——大概率在五年之后赚的钱会比今天少很多。
And I will tell you that, you know, 20% of the Fortune 500, but I don't know which 20%, are going to be earning, you know, significantly less money probably 5 years from now than they are today.
而这就是这个游戏的核心：弄清楚未来的现金流大概会是什么样。
And that's, that's what the game is all about, figuring out what those future cash flows are likely to be.
如果你做不到，或者你觉得自己没法在这方面给出合理的估计，那你就看下一个。
And when you can't, when you feel you can't come up with reasonable estimates in that respect, you move on to the next one.