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1995年股东大会 · 巴菲特:格雷厄姆教会我最重要的三大投资原则

25 段 · 2 位说话人 · 原片 3:01
M1
M10:01

John Rankin,来自 Colorado 的 Fort Collins。

John Rankin, Fort Collins, Colorado.

谢谢你们邀请我们来。

Thanks for having us.

在《Warren Buffett Way》这本书里,作者介绍了你用来评估普通股买入时内在价值的资本增长模型。

In the book Warren Buffett Way, the author describes the capital growth model that you've used to evaluate intrinsic value in common stock purchases.

我的问题是,你现在是不是也还在用 Ben Graham 在《The Intelligent Investor》里讲的那个公式,就是既评估预期增长,也考虑账面价值的那个公式?

My question is, do you also still use the formula Ben Graham described in The Intelligent Investor that uses evaluating anticipated growth but also book value?

在我看来,用 Graham 先生那个公式算出来的公允价值,好像总是会比《Warren Buffett Way》里那种把现金流折现到现在的做法更高一点,你在年报里也提到过这种做法。

It seems to me that fair value is always a bit higher when using Mr. Graham's formula than the stream of cash discounted back to present value that is in Warren Buffett's way and also that you've alluded to in annual reports.
M2
M20:41

对,我们一直都尽量在年报里讲清楚,我们大体上是怎么分析证券的。

Yeah, we've tried to put in the annual report pretty much how we approach securities.

而且账面价值不是我们考虑的因素,或者说,几乎完全不是考虑因素。

And book value is not a consideration, virtually not a consideration at all.

最好的企业,从定义上来说,就是那些长期来看在所用资本上能赚到非常高回报的企业。

The best businesses, by definition, are going to be businesses that earn very high returns on capital employed over time.

所以很自然,如果我们想持有好企业,我们持有的往往会是这样一些公司:相对于我们的买入价格,它们实际需要投入的资本是比较少的。

So, by nature, if we want to own good businesses, we're going to own things that have relatively little capital employed compared to our purchase price.

这就不是 Ben Graham 当年的那种方法了。

That would not have been Ben Graham's approach.

但是 Ben Graham 当时——Ben 当时管理的资金规模并不是特别大,而且他也不会反对这种方法。

But Ben Graham was— Ben was not working with very large sums of money, and he would not have argued with this approach.

他只会说,他自己的方法更容易一些;而且当你管理的是小规模资金时,那种方法可能确实更容易。

He just would have said his was easier, and it is easier perhaps when you're working with small amounts of money.

我的朋友 Walter Schloss,更接近 Ben 会挑选的那类证券——不过他管理的资金规模也比较小。

My friend Walter Schloss has hewed much more toward the kind of securities that Ben would have selected, and— but he's worked with smaller amounts of money.

他的业绩简直出色得不得了,这一点我一点都不意外。

He has an absolutely sensational record, and it's not surprising to me at all.

我是说,Walter 离开 Graham 之后,我本来就预期他会做得很好。

I mean, when Walter left Graham, though, I would have expected him to do well.

但是从我们的角度看,我并不认为 Graham 最核心的信息在于那个——或者说,不在于任何具体公式。

But I don't look at the primary message from our standpoint of Graham really as being in that— in anything to do with formulas.

换句话说,这里面有三个重要的方面。

In other words, there's 3 important aspects to it.

你知道,第一,是你对股票市场的态度。

You know, one is your attitude toward the stock market.

这一点在《The Intelligent Investor》的第 8 章里讲到了。

That's covered in Chapter 8 of The Intelligent Investor.

我的意思是,如果你对市场抱有那样一种态度,那你一开始就已经领先市场里百分之九十九的人了,所以你会有巨大的优势。

I mean, if you've got that attitude toward the market, you start ahead of 99% of all people who are operating in the market, so you have an enormous advantage.

第二个原则是安全边际,这一点同样会给你带来巨大的优势,而且它的适用范围其实远远不只是投资世界。

Second principle is the margin of safety, which again gives you an enormous edge and actually has applicability far beyond just the investment world.

第三,就是把股票当成企业来看,这会让你的视角和市场上的大多数人完全不同。

And then the third is just looking at stocks as businesses, which gives you an entirely different view than most people that are in the market.

有了这三个算是哲学层面的基准,你具体采用哪种估值技术其实并没有那么重要,因为无论你用 Walter 的方法,或者 Walter Schloss 的方法,或者我的方法,或者别的方法,你都不会偏离轨道太远。

And with those 3 sort of philosophical benchmarks, the exact evaluation technique you use is not really that important because you're not gonna go way off the track whether you use Walter's approach or Walter Schloss's or mine or whatever.

Phil Carret 的方法稍微有点不一样,但我可以向你保证,它同样建立在这三个基石之上。而且相信我,他做得非常好。

Phil Carret has a slightly different approach, but it's got those 3 cornerstones to it, I will guarantee, and believe me, he's done very well.

Charlie?

Charlie?