M21:04
先说第一个问题，Japanese stocks 的市净率会比美国股票低，原因是——我不知道确切数字——Japanese companies 的账面资本回报，确实就是比 American companies 低很多。
Going to the first question, the reason that—and I don't know the exact figures—that Japanese stocks would sell at a lower price-book ratio than U.S. stocks is simply because Japanese companies are earning far less on book than American companies.
而决定价值的是 earnings，不是 book value。
And earnings are what determine value, not book value.
book value 不是我们会考虑的因素。
Book value is not a factor we consider.
我们会考虑的，是 future earnings。
Future earnings are a factor we consider.
而且就像我们今天早上前面提到的那样，很多 Japanese companies 的盈利一直都很差。
And, as we mentioned earlier this morning, earnings have been poor for a great many Japanese companies.
当然，如果你认为 Japanese business 的股本回报率接下来会大幅提升，那你就会赚很多钱。
Now, if you think that the return on equity of Japanese business is going to increase dramatically, then you're going to make a lot of money.
我的意思是，如果你判断对了，那你在 Japanese stocks 上会赚很多钱。
I mean, if you're correct, you're going to make a lot of money in Japanese stocks.
但 Japanese businesses 的股本回报率一直是相当低的。
But the returns on equity for Japanese businesses have been quite low.
所以，低市净率其实是非常非常合理的，因为 earnings 本来就是相对于账面价值来衡量的。
And that makes a low price-to-book ratio very, very appropriate because earnings are measured against book.
如果一家公司按账面价值算只能赚百分之五，
And if a company is earning 5% on book value, I don't want to buy it at book value
而且如果我认为它以后也会一直只赚账面价值的百分之五，我就不想按 book value 去买它。
if I think it's going to keep earning 5% on book value.
所以，低市净率对我们来说说明不了任何问题。
So, a low price-book ratio means nothing to us.
它不会引起我们的兴趣。
It does not intrigue us.
事实上，如果非要说的话，相比那些相对 book 卖得很低的公司，我们反而更有可能去看那些相对 book 卖得高的公司，因为前一种情况大概率是个烂生意，后一种情况大概率是个好生意。
In fact, if anything, we are less likely to look at something that sells at a low relationship to book than something that sells at a high relationship to book, because the chances are we're looking at a poor business in the first case and a good business in the second case.