M20:23
嗯，我可以多讲一点，但我答不了这个问题。
Well, I could expand, but I couldn't answer.
Charlie 和我完全不知道股市下周、下个月，或者明年会怎么走。
Charlie and I haven't the faintest idea where the stock market is going to go next week, next month, or next year.
我们从来不聊这个。
We never talk about it.
你知道，这个话题从来不会被提起。
You know, it never comes up.
我们的董事们都可以告诉你，他们从来没参加过哪次董事会，讨论的主题是股市接下来往哪个方向走——我们不是干这个的。
Our directors will tell you that, that they've never been to a director's meeting where the subject of the direction of the stock market is— We are not in that business.
我们也不知道该怎么做这种事。
We don't know how to be in that business.
呃，显然，如果我们能有很高的成功率猜中股市接下来怎么走，那我们就什么都不用做了，直接去玩 S&P futures market 就行了，也根本没必要研究企业和股票。
Uh, obviously, if we could guess successfully a high percentage of the time where the stock market was going to go, we would do nothing but play the S&P futures market, where there wouldn't be any reason to look at businesses and stocks.
所以，这根本不是我们玩的游戏。
So it's just not our game.
我们不会那样想——我们看股市的时候，看到的是成千上万、成千上万、成千上万家公司每天都在被标价。虽然我们会扫一眼，但其中百分之九十九点九我们都会忽略掉。
We don't think— what we see when we look at the stock market is we see thousands and thousands and thousands of companies priced every day, and we ignore 99.9% of what we see, although we run our eyes over them.
然后偶尔，我们会看到某样东西，从企业的角度看，对我们来说价格很有吸引力。
And then every now and then we see something that looks like it's attractively priced to us as a business.
先把“股票”这个词忘掉。
Forget about the word stock.
所以，呃，我们买入一只股票的时候，就算有人告诉我们市场接下来会关上两年，我们也会对这只股票感到满意。
So, uh, when we buy a stock, we would be happy with that stock if they told us the market was going to close for a couple years.
我们看的是企业本身。
We look to the business.
这跟你打算在 Omaha 附近几英里外买一座农场，完全是一个道理。
It's exactly the same way as if you were going to buy a farm a few miles here outside of Omaha.
你不会每天都给这块地估个价，也不会去问，比如说，今年的产量是不是比预期高一点，或者低一点。
You would not get a price on it every day, and you wouldn't ask, you know, whether the yield was a little above expectation this year, down a little bit.
你会看这座农场长期下来能产出什么。
You'd look at what the farm was going to produce over time.
你会看预期产量。
You'd look at the expected yields.
你会看预期价格、税收成本、化肥成本，然后根据这座农场的产出，相对于你的买入价格，来判断这笔买卖划不划算。
You'd look at expected prices, the cost of taxes, the cost of fertilizer, and you would evaluate the intelligence of your purchase based on what the farm produced relative to your purchase price.
市场报价跟这根本没关系。
Quotes would have nothing to do with it.
我们看股票也完全是一样的。
That's exactly the way we look at stocks.
我们把它们当成企业来看。
We look at them as businesses.
我们会判断这些企业未来会怎么样；如果我们这个判断是对的，股票自己会处理好它该发生的事。
We make judgments about what the futures of those businesses will be, and if we're right about that in those judgments, the stocks will take care of themselves.