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2001年股东大会 · 当年的巴菲特为何卖出房利美与房地美的股票

37 段 · 2 位说话人 · 原片 3:52
F1
F10:00

我叫 Steve Sondheim。

My name is Steve Sondheim.

我住在 Chicago,我十四岁。

I live in Chicago and I'm 14 years old.

我是第三代股东,我的问题是,我注意到你们卖掉了我们在 Freddie Mac 的持仓。

I'm a 3rd-generation shareholder, and my question is, I noticed that you sold our position in Freddie Mac.

你们觉得这个行业有哪些风险?

What risks do you see in that industry?
M1
M10:16

你是 Joe 的孙女吗?

Are you Joe's granddaughter?
F1
F10:18

对。

Yeah.
M1
M10:18

啊,很好。

Ah, good.

我们有数量惊人的第二代、第三代,甚至第四代股东,我对此特别高兴。

We have an amazing number of 2nd and 3rd and even 4th-generation shareholders, which I'm delighted with.

我是说,我觉得交易所里很多大公司都没有这种情况。

I mean, I don't think lots of companies, big companies on the stock exchange, are in that position.

确实,我们去年卖掉了 Freddie Mac 的股票,随着一些情况的发展,这门生意里有些方面让我们感觉没那么踏实,Fannie Mae 也是一样。

It is true we sold the Freddie Mac stock last year, and there were certain aspects of the business that we felt less comfortable with as they unfolded, and Fannie Mae too.

而且我们并不是——我要强调一下,我们卖出并不是因为担心政府会对 Freddie 和 Fannie 加强监管。

And we did not— I would stress, we did not sell because we were worried about more government regulation of Freddie and Fannie.

如果说有什么的话,恰恰相反。

If anything, just the opposite.

所以不是——Wall Street 偶尔会因为政府监管可能加强而做出负面反应,这些股票有时候也会因为这个原因在短期内下跌。

So it was not— Wall Street occasionally will react negatively to the prospect of more government regulation, and the stocks will react sometimes short-term for that reason.

但那不是我们的原因。

But that was not our reason.

我们觉得它们的风险特征有了一些变化。

We felt the risk profile had changed somewhat.

Charlie?

Charlie?

对,不过这也许算是我们自己的一个特点。

Yeah, but that may be a peculiarity of ours.

我们对金融机构尤其容易感到不安。

We are especially prone to get uncomfortable around financial institutions.

我们对风险相当敏感,不管是银行、保险公司,还是这里所说的 GSEs,就 Freddie 和 Fannie 这种情况来说都是一样。

We're quite sensitive to risk, whether it's in banks, insurance companies, or in what they call GSEs here, in the case of Freddie and Fannie.

我们觉得,金融机构有太多东西不是光看数字就能看出来的,所以只要有一点点地方让我们不舒服,我们就没法确定那到底是不是冰山一角。

We feel there's so much about a financial institution that you don't know by looking at just figures, that if anything bothers us a little bit, we're never sure whether it's an iceberg situation or not.

当然,这一点也不意味着它就一定是冰山问题。

And that doesn't mean it is an iceberg situation in the least.
F1
F12:15

对。

No.
M1
M12:15

在那些我们放弃了的银行或保险公司身上,也是这样。

At banks or insurance companies that we passed.

但我们已经见过太多金融机构朝着这样那样的方向越走越偏之后会发生什么,所以如果我们感觉到这种事在发生,我们就会觉得,反正等我们真正看出来的时候,往往也已经太晚了。

But we have seen enough of what happens with financial institutions that push one way or another that if we get some feeling that that's going on, we just figure we'll never see it until it's too late anyway.

所以我们就干脆告辞,祝他们一切顺利。

So we just bid adieu and wish them the best.

这并不暗示他们做错了什么。

And without any implication that they're doing anything wrong.

只是我们没法百分之百确定,他们做的事情是我们喜欢的。

It's just that we can't be 100% sure of the fact they're doing things that we like.

而当我们碰到这种情况时,这和买一家有具体产品的公司,或者做零售业务的公司,是不一样的。

And when we get to that situation, it's different than buying into a company with a product or something, or a retail operation.

那类生意通常你能比较早地发现问题。

You can spot troubles usually fairly early in those businesses.

金融机构的问题,你往往发现得比较晚。

You spot troubles in financial institutions late.

这就是这类东西的本性。

It's just the nature of the beast.

真的吗?

Really?

对,financial institutions 在他们想把业务做得很好的时候,往往会让我们感到不安。

Yeah, financial institutions tend to make us nervous when they're trying to do well.

这听起来有点矛盾,但现实就是这样。

That sounds paradoxical, but that's the way it is.

financial institutions 遇到麻烦,大多数情况下并不是因为现金花光了。

Financial institutions don't get in trouble by running out of cash in most cases.

别的企业你通常可以通过这个看出来,但 financial institution 不一样——它甚至可能在事实上已经资不抵债之后还继续撑着。十年前我们就见过很多银行大批量地出现这种情况。而且它们甚至可能在已经失去偿付能力之后,手头看起来仍然还有 plenty of money。

Other businesses you can spot that way, but, but you— a financial institution can go beyond the point of insolvency, and we had banks 10 years ago that did that en masse, but they can go beyond the point of solvency even while they still have plenty of money around.

请四区提问。

Area 4, please.