M10:00
你不知道自己会生来是黑人还是白人。
You don't know whether you're going to be born black or white.
你不知道自己会生来是男性还是女性。
You don't know whether you're going to be born male or female.
你不知道自己会生来是聪明还是智力迟缓。
You don't know whether you're going to be born bright or retarded.
你不知道自己会生来体弱多病还是身体健全。
You don't know whether you're going to be born infirm or able-bodied.
你不知道自己会生在 United States 还是 Afghanistan。
You don't know whether you're going to be born in the United States or Afghanistan.
换句话说，你等于要参与一场我所谓的、持续二十四小时的“卵巢彩票”。
In other words, you're going to participate in 24 hours in what I call the ovarian lottery.
什么叫“卵巢彩票”？
What's the ovarian lottery?
你知道，这可能是你这一生参与过的最——最重要的一件事。
You know, it's the most— it's the most important event in which you'll ever participate.
你知道，它决定的东西，可远远不只是你上什么学校、你有多努力。
You know, it's going to determine way more than what school you go to, how hard you participate.
那么，在知道这一点的前提下，你会去构建一个什么样的社会呢？
Now, what kind of a society are you going to construct with that in prospect?
嗯，我想你会把重点放在 Patrick 在他问题里提到的两个议题上。
Well, I suspect you would focus on 2 issues that Patrick mentioned in his question.
你会想办法设计出一个制度，既能生产出极其丰富的物资，而且这种丰富在你这一生、你孩子这一生、你孙辈这一生里，都能持续快速增长，这样整体来说，他们能过得比你好，而孙辈又能过得比孩子更好。
You would try to figure out a system that is going to produce an abundant amount of goods, and where that abundance is going to increase at a rapid rate during your lifetime and your children and your grandchildren, so they can live better than you do in aggregate, and the grandchildren can live better.
所以，你会想要一种制度，能够一直不断产出人们想要的东西，一眼望不到头。
So you'd want some system that turned out what people wanted as far as the eye could see.
但同时，你也会希望这个制度在做到这一点的同时，能够以一种你自己如果处在他们位置上也愿意被这样对待的方式，去对待那些没有赢得“卵巢彩票”的人，因为没中奖的人其实很多。
But you would also want a system that, while it did that, treated the people that did not win the ovarian lottery in a way that you would want to be treated if you were in their position, because a lot of people don't win the lottery.
我是说，Charlie，我们出生的时候，生在 United States 之外的概率，超过三十比一。
I mean, Charlie, when we were born, the odds were over 30 to 1 against being born in the United States.
你知道，光是中了彩票里的这一部分，就是巨大的加分了。
You know, just winning that portion of the lottery, enormous plus.
对。
Yes.
要是在 Afghanistan，我们根本就不会有什么出息。
We wouldn't be worth a damn in Afghanistan.
你知道，我们在那里发表演讲，根本不会有人听。
You know, we'd be giving talks and nobody would be listening.
太惨了。
Terrible.
对，对。
Right, right.
那真是所有世界里最糟的一种了。
That's the worst of all worlds.
所以，我们是在这方面中了奖。
So we won it that way.
我们还在另一个层面上中了奖——我们出生在那个年代，又恰好是男性。
We won it partially in the era in which we were born by being born male.
你知道，在我成长的时候，女性能做的工作——也就是当老师、秘书或者护士，差不多就这些。
You know, when I was growing up, you know, women had— they could be teachers or secretaries or nurses, and that was about it.
而全国百分之五十的人才，在很大程度上，几乎被排除在绝大多数职业之外。
And 50% of the talent in the country was excluded from, in a very large part, from virtually all occupations.
我们还因为自己是白人而中了奖。
We won it by being white.
你知道，这不是说我们有多了不起，只是事情刚好就是这样。
You know, it's no tribute to us, it just happened that way.
而且我们还在另一层面上中了奖——我们的天生 wiring 是某一种样子，这不是我们自己能决定的，但恰好让我们擅长给企业估值。
And we won it in another way, by being wired in a certain way, which we had nothing to do with, that happens to enable us to be good at valuing businesses.
你知道，这算是世界上最伟大的才能吗？
And you know, is that the greatest talent in the world?
不是，只不过是在这个体系里，这件事碰巧回报高得惊人。
No, it just happens to be something that pays off like crazy in this system.
那说完这个之后，你还是会希望有这样一个体系：像 Bill Gates、Andy Grove 这样天生有才华的人，能够把这些才能投入到工作里，而且是真正以能把这些才能发挥到最大的方式去用。
Now, when you get through with that, you still want to have a system where the people that are born like Bill Gates or Andy Grove or something get to turn those talents to work in a way that really maximizes those talents.
我的意思是，要是因为你有一种特别强的平均主义冲动，就让 Bill、Andy、像他们这样的人，或者 Tom Murphy，去干那种平平无奇的工作，那简直是一种罪过。
I mean, it would be a crime to have Bill or Andy or people like that, or Tom Murphy, working in some pedestrian occupation just because you had this great egalitarian instinct.
但在我看来，关键是要有一种平衡，让那些有能力在市场社会里生产出人们想要的产品的人，能够大规模地把这些东西做出来，而且一辈子都愿意持续这么做。
But the trick, it seems to me, is to have some balance that causes the people who have the talents that can produce goods that people want in a market society to turn them out in great quantity and to keep wanting to do it all their lives.
同时，也要照顾那些没中彩票的人，确保他们不会仅仅因为在人生某一个时刻拿错了那张票，就过上一种比那些更幸运的人差得非常多的人生。
And at the same time, take the people that lost the lottery and make sure that just because they, you know, on that one moment in time they've got the wrong ticket, don't live a life that's dramatically worse than the people that were luckier.
等我把这番长篇大论都讲完，我大概得出的结论会是：像今天这样存在的 capital gains tax，可能大体上是差不多合适的。
And when I get all through with that long speech, I probably come out with the idea that the capital gains tax as it exists today is probably about right.
所以，这就是——我见过很少这样的人，而且你也知道，这些年我接触过很多有钱的人，也接触过很多有才华的人。
So that's, that's—I see very few people, and you know, I've been around a lot of people with money and talent over time.
这两样不总是在同一个人身上同时出现，但这两类人我都接触过。
They don't always go together, but I've been around both classes.
而我看到的情况是，很少有人会因为百分之二十八的税率，就不愿意去发挥自己的才能——这种事基本不会发生。
And I see very few of them that are turned off from using their talents by a 28%—it doesn't happen.