← 返回任务列表

1998年股东大会 · 巴菲特:相比机构,我更喜欢个人成为伯克希尔的股东

36 段 · 3 位说话人 · 原片 4:54
M1
M10:00

我是来自 Illinois 州 University Park 的 Dale Max,我有一个问题想问你们两位。给 Charlie 的问题比较短,给 Warren 的可能稍微长一点。

I'm Dale Max from University Park, Illinois, and I've got a question for each of you, a short question for Charlie and a little, maybe a little longer for Warren.

我想问 Charlie 的是,从商学院那套定义来看,Berkshire Hathaway 的资本成本是什么?

My question for Charlie is, in a business school sense, what is the cost of capital for Berkshire Hathaway?

我想问 Warren 的是,我上了 internet,看 Yahoo 上面会给公司做推荐。可我查 Berkshire Hathaway 的时候,显示根本没有人在推荐 Berkshire Hathaway,尽管这里可能有一千个人都穿着牌子写着“我爱 Berkshire Hathaway”,当然我自己也戴了一个。

And my question for Warren is that I've been on the internet and I look at Yahoo and they give you recommendations for companies, and when I search for Berkshire Hathaway, it shows that nobody is recommending Berkshire Hathaway despite the fact that there are maybe 1,000 people that are wearing signs here, I love Berkshire Hathaway, and of course I've got mine on too.

但为什么好像就是没人推荐呢?问题出在哪儿?

But what seems to be the problem in lack of recommendations?
M2
M20:52

嗯,顺便说一句,我们也不推荐 Yahoo,不过——不过我先让 Charlie 这个问题再让大家困惑个几千年,然后我再来——。

Well, we're not recommending Yahoo, incidentally, either, but— but I'll let Charlie puzzle people for thousands of years and then I'll—.
F1
F11:04

对,这个问题按照现在大多数商学院教的那一套来说,我觉得是讲不通的。所以通常是我来问这个问题,然后得到一堆讲不通的答案。

Yeah, the way that is taught in most business schools now I find incoherent, and so I'm the one that asks that question and gets the incoherent answers.

对于一个我觉得本身就有点蠢的问题,我也给不出什么好答案。

I don't have a good answer to a question I consider kind of a stupid question.

Berkshire Hathaway 在现金像洪流一样涌进来的情况下,资本成本到底是什么?

What is the cost of capital at Berkshire Hathaway drowning in this torrent of cash?
M2
M21:31

你不需要一个数学上的答案。

You don't need a mathematical answer.

第一个问题是,当你手里有资本的时候,是留着更好,还是还给股东更好?

The first question is, is when you have capital, is it better to keep it or return it to shareholders?

如果你没法用这笔资本创造出超过一美元的价值,那最好就是把它还给股东。

It's better to return it to shareholders when you cannot create more than a dollar of value with that capital.

这是第一个检验标准。

That's test number one.

然后,如果你过了这个门槛,也就是你认为每留下一美元,能创造出超过一美元的价值,那你接下来要做的,就是四处看看,找出那个你最有把握、而且在这种把握程度加权之后回报最高的事情。

And, and if you pass that threshold that you think you can achieve more than a dollar of value for every dollar retained, then you simply look around for the thing that you feel the surest about and that promises the greatest return weighted for that certainty.

所以我们的资本成本,实际上就是看我们有没有能力让每留下一美元,都创造出超过一美元的价值。

So our cost of capital is, in effect, is measured by, by the ability to create more than a dollar of value for every dollar retained.

如果我们留在手里的这些一美元钞票——我的意思是——在你们手里其实比在我们手里更值钱,那在我看来,我们就没有达到资本成本的要求。

If we're keeping dollar bills that, I mean, are worth more in your hands than in our hands, then we've exceeded the cost of capital as far as I'm concerned.

而一旦我们觉得自己能做到这一点,接下来的问题就是,我们要怎样尽自己最大能力把这件事做好?

And once we think we can do that, then the question is, is how do we do it to the best of our ability?

坦白说,商学院里那些东西,我还真没发现有什么办法能比这个公式更好。

And frankly, all the stuff I see in business schools, you know, I've not found any way to improve on that formula.

不过这里面你们可能会遇到的麻烦是,很多管理层都会不愿意把钱分给股东。

Now, the trouble that you may have is that many managements would be reluctant to distribute money to shareholders.

哪怕他们会给自己找一套很合理的说法,说自己能做得比实际做出来的更好。

Even if they would rationalize that they would do better than they then actually do.

但这——这可能确实是个风险。不过,解决办法肯定不是让他们雇一帮人,算出一个所谓的资本成本,顺便也替他们继续把钱留在手里找理由,因为不然他们也会这么干。

But that's— that may be a danger in it, but that won't be solved by them hiring a bunch of people to come up with some cost of capital that also justifies them keeping the money, because that's what they'll do otherwise.

至于股票推荐这个问题——这么多年来,我们其实很少得到什么股票推荐。

The question about recommending the stock— we've very seldom had stock recommendations over the years.

我回想从一九六五年以来,呃,我想不起来有多少券商报告推荐过 Berkshire。

As I think back to 1965, I, uh, I can't think of a lot of brokerage reports that have recommended Berkshire.

那个——我,我,我其实也没在指望什么报告。

That— I, I, I'm not looking for any, you know, reports at all.

我们并不追求让 Berkshire 的股价卖到尽可能最高,也不想去吸引那种因为别人推荐才来买 Berkshire 股票的人。

We are not looking to have Berkshire sell at the highest possible price, and we're not looking for— to try and attract people to Berkshire who are buying stocks because somebody else recommends them to them.

我们更喜欢那种自己想明白、为什么他们自己想买 Berkshire 的人,因为如果他们走进这家餐厅,是因为他们自己认定这就是他们想吃饭的餐厅,那他们留下来的可能性,就比因为有人拼命吹捧才进来的人大得多。

We prefer people who, who figure out for themselves why they want— they themselves want to buy Berkshire, because they're much more likely to stick around if they enter the restaurant because they decide it's the restaurant they want to eat at than if somebody has touted them on it.

这就是我们的做法。

And that's, that's our approach.

所以我们不会去做任何鼓励这种事的动作,不过我想,就算我们真这么做了,大概也还是不会带来很多推荐。

So we, we do nothing to encourage, but I think even if we did, we probably wouldn't generate a lot of recommendations.

如果你是个 broker,这其实也不是一只特别适合让你发财的股票。

It's, it's not a great stock to get rich on if you're a broker.
F1
F13:51

对,我觉得原因是——我觉得它在 institutional market 里这么少被推荐,一个主要原因是,大家觉得它很难大规模买进去。

Yeah, I think the reason, I think one of the main reasons why it's so little recommended in the institutional market is that it's perceived as hard to buy in quantity.
M2
M24:15

我们更喜欢——我们现在也有一些很好的机构股东,其中包括一家由我们一位非常好的朋友管理的机构,不过坦白说,对我们来说,拥有一大群个人股东会更有意思。

We prefer— we've got some good institutions as holders, including one that's run by a very good friend of ours, but frankly, it's more fun for us to have a bunch of individual shareholders.

我是说,你能看得到。它会直接体现出来——如果赚到了钱,那会变成别人生活里的变化,而不是变成某个人某一个季度业绩数字上的一点变动。

I mean, you see it. It translates—if there's money made, it translates into changes in people's lives and not some change in somebody's performance figure for one quarter.

而且我们觉得,个人投资者更有可能是抱着一种想法来加入我们的,就是只要我们还在,他们就会一直跟我们待下去。

And we think that individuals are much more likely to join us with the idea of staying with us for as long as we stay around.

你知道,我们就是这样看这个业务的。

And, you know, that's the way we look at the business.

很少有机构会用这种方式来看待投资。

Very few institutions look at investments that way.

而且坦白说,我们觉得跟个人投资者比起来,他们往往反而是更不理性的持有者。

And frankly, we think they're often less rational holders than we get with individuals.

这是第一点。

Number one.