M10:00
以后，街上这种比喻意义上的一百美元钞票，会不会越来越少？
Will there be fewer metaphorical $100 bills left on the street going forward?
如果是这样，那我是不是应该去找一份管理企业的职业，而不是去做资金管理？
And if so, should I look for a career in managing a business instead of managing money?
可能会少一些。不过我想说，只要不是处在最疯狂的泡沫市场里，机会总会存在。只要你管理的资金规模不是很大，就总会有机会。
There will probably be fewer, but I would say there will always be, except in the most bubbly of markets perhaps, but there will always be opportunities if you're not working with large amounts of money.
资金管理这个行业，本身就存在一个基本的冲突。
The money manager - there's a basic conflict.
大多数行业里都有各种冲突。
There's conflicts in most businesses.
现在大家都在指出投资银行业务中的各种利益冲突，但资产管理业务里也有一个同样严重的冲突。那就是，吸引资产可能会变成收入中远比管理资产更重要的一部分。
Everybody's pointing out the conflicts now in the investment banking business, but the investment management business has a conflict that's equally as significant in the, in the fact that asset gathering can become a way more important part of your income than asset managing.
但如果你管理的是规模适中的资金，我想总会有机会跑赢市场，呃，取得超额回报。
But if you manage moderate sums of money, I think there will always be opportunities, uh, to outperform.
这并不意味着会有很多人做到这一点，但机会确实会在那里。
That doesn't mean lots of people are going to do it, but they will be out there.
你知道，很多年前可能更容易一些，那时候寻找机会的人更少，网上能获得的信息也没那么多，诸如此类。不过，人们现在还是会犯同样的错误。
And, you know, it might have been easier many years ago when there were fewer people looking and not as much information was available on the internet and all that, but people still make the same mistakes.
他们还是会犯错。嗯，我给你举个例子吧。
And they still get - well, I'll give you an illustration.
Charlie 有一家叫 Daily Journal Corporation 的公司。
Charlie has a company called the Daily Journal Corporation.
Daily Journal Corporation 手里有一大笔现金。
And the Daily Journal Corporation has a bunch of cash.
这些现金就一直放在那里，一直放在那里。
And it sat there with cash, and it sat there with cash.
我持有一百股，这已经是他允许我持有的全部股份了。
And I own 100 shares, which is all he'll let me own.
前段时间我拿到了他们的年报。
And I got their annual report here a while back.
在他们的财年里，呃，这是哪一年？
And in their fiscal year - what year is this?
二〇〇九年。他们在那之前，我所知道的是，从来没买过股票。结果突然之间，他们买了价值一千五百万美元的股票，而这些股票后来价值四千五百万美元。
Of 2009 for - they never bought stocks before that I'd seen, and all of a sudden they bought $15 million worth of stocks and they were worth $45 million.
所以，他就那么等了一段时间，等到有些东西变得荒谬地便宜之后，才投入了一千五百万美元。大概六个月左右，这笔钱就变成了四千五百万美元。
So by sitting around for a while, you know, but waiting until things got really ridiculous in certain cases, he put $15 million out that became $45 million within probably a 6-month period or so.
所以，机会总会出现。
So opportunities come around.
机会来的时候，你得准备好抓住它。而且你不能用我们现在管理的那种规模的资金来做这件事。我的意思是，用那种规模的资金，你不可能买到真正非同寻常的机会。
You have to be prepared to grab them when they come, and you can't do it with the kind of money - I mean, you can't get the extraordinary things with the kind of money that we're running.
但资金规模适中的话，呃，我想机会总会存在。
With moderate amounts of money, uh, I think there will always be opportunities.
Charlie 现在可能要告诉你一些更悲观的事情了。
Charlie's going to tell you something more pessimistic now, probably.