M10:23
嗯，我很少写文章，或者很少接受采访，来谈整个市场总体水平这个话题。
Well, I write articles very infrequently or get interviewed very infrequently on, on the subject of the general level of the market itself.
大概四十年里，也就只有四五次，我真正明确表达过我对整个股市总体水平的看法。
Probably only 4 or 5 times in 40 years have I really declared myself about what I thought about the general level of the stock market.
而且事实证明，二零零八年十月我其实是说早了，这一点也有不少人提醒过我。
And it turned out I was pretty premature, actually, in October 2008, as was pointed out to me by a number of people.
呃，但我当时的感觉——还有我在那篇文章里真正想说的，其实是，从长期来看，持有股票肯定比去执行一种买长期债券或者持有现金的策略要好得多。
Uh, but I felt—and what I said in that article really was that it would be way better to own stocks over the long term than to follow a policy of buying either long-term bonds or holding cash.
而且我知道我可以这么说，我最终——我觉得大概率也会被证明在这点上是对的。
And I knew I could make that statement, and I would be eventually—I thought odds were very high I'd be proven right on that.
但是我不喜欢——我不知道股市下周、下个月或者明年会怎么样。
But I don't like—I don't know what the stock market's going to do next week or next month or next year.
我完全不知道。
I don't have any idea.
大家总觉得我知道。
People always think I do.
但我知道，我自己是不知道的。
I know I don't have any idea.
我也不会去想这个。
I don't think about it.
这根本没什么区别。
It doesn't make any difference.
Charlie 和我，我不——基本上我都想不起来我们什么时候专门讨论过这个。
Charlie and I, I don't—I can't recall a discussion we've ever had on it, you know, basically.
但是我确实认为，未来十年或者二十年，我肯定更愿意持有股票，包括美国股票。
But I do think over the next 10 years or 20 years, I'd much rather own equities, including U.S. equities.
比起持有现金，我肯定更愿意持有股票；比起持有十年期或者二十年期债券，我也肯定更愿意持有股票。
I'd much rather own them than cash, or I'd much rather own them than a 10- or 20-year bond.
不过这部分也是因为，我对那些替代选择，呃，实在没什么热情。
But that's partly because I'm very unenthusiastic about, uh, the alternatives.
我觉得，我觉得股票——长期来看，很可能会给你带来一些正的、幅度不算大的实际回报。
I think, I think equities will—are likely to give you some positive, modest positive real return, uh, over time.
呃，除此之外，我真的就不知道什么了。
Uh, but beyond that, I really don't know anything.
Charlie？
Charlie?