1998年股东大会 · 芒格：伯克希尔的未来会很好，哪怕我们的经理人同时死亡 — 文稿

M10:00

好的，向 Munger 先生和 Buffett 先生问好。

Yes, hello to Mr. Munger and Mr. Buffett.

我叫 Jerry Gonzalez，来自 Plantation。

My name is Jerry Gonzalez from Plantation.

我的问题是，如果 Berkshire Hathaway 由 Charlie Munger 来负责，或者由你们的第三号人物来负责——你们的第三号人物，我记得你们说过是，呃，GEICO 的 CEO——你们会有什么建议？

My question is, what are your recommendations of Berkshire Hathaway if Charlie Munger were in charge, or your third man in charge—your third man, which I think you said is the CEO of, uh, GEICO?

你们的建议是什么？

What are your recommendations?

M20:22

我刚才没听明白那一点。

I missed that point.

M10:24

如果完全由 Charlie Munger 来负责，百分之百由他掌管，或者由你们的第三号人物，也就是 GEICO 的 CEO 来负责呢？

If Charlie Munger would have been in charge fully, 100%, or your third man, the CEO of GEICO?

M30:31

嗯，到了适当的时候，这家公司当然会发生管理层更替。

Well, in due course, this corporation will have a change in management.

恐怕这件事我们没法避免。

I'm afraid we have no way of fixing that.

不过，除了确保我们有好的备选方案、也有相应的制度安排之外，呃，我们并没有老惦记这件事。

And, uh, but we do not— apart from making sure we've got good options and having some system in place, uh, we are not obsessing about it.

没有。嗯，我们——董事们——Warren 打算几乎一直活下去。

No. Well, we— the directors— Warren plans to live almost indefinitely.

绝对是这样。

Absolutely.

M21:02

不过我得说一句，上次我过生日的时候，有人问我，呃，我多少岁了。

Although I must say, at my last birthday, somebody asked me, uh, how old I was.

我说，嗯，你干嘛不数数蛋糕上的蜡烛呢？

I said, well, why don't you just count the candles on the cake?

结果他说，热得他都没法靠近。

And he said he was driven back by the heat.

M31:12

所以，呃，我们并不是——

So, but, uh, we're not—

M21:18

我们不会心甘情愿地离开。

We're not going to leave willingly.

呃，而且我们也确实——董事们知道该由谁接班——他们手上有一封信，呃，上面写着谁——谁是我们认为应该接替我们的人，既包括经营层面，也包括投资配置层面。

Uh, and we do— the directors know who— they have a letter, uh, that says who, who they think, who we think should be the ones to succeed us at both the operating aspect and the investment allocation aspect.

当然，随着我们继续待在这儿，这些信里的内容也可能会随着时间变化，但我一点也不担心，因为我百分之九十九以上的遗产都会放在 Berkshire Hathaway 的股票里，或者说，最终会有一个基金会接收这些股票。

And that— those letters can change over time as we keep hanging around, but I don't worry about the fact that 99% plus of my estate will be in Berkshire Hathaway stock, or that a foundation will eventually receive that stock.

所以这事对我来说一点都不困扰。

So it doesn't bother me in the least.

我想不出还有哪个地方会比放在这儿更好。

I can't think of a place I'd rather have it.

这也包括了我对我们现有这些经理人的判断，他们是可以顶上来，去做 Charlie 和我现在在做的事的。

And that includes my appraisal of the managers that we have who can step in and do what Charlie and I do.

而且谁知道呢，他们当中没准还有一个人真的懂 technology。

And who knows, one of them may even understand technology.

M32:13

我觉得，就算这里排名前二十五位的经理人同时都死了，这家公司依然会有相当不错的前景。

I think this place would have very respectable prospects if the top 25 managers all dropped dead at once.

M22:26

不过，那可不是我们打算去做的实验。

Well, that's not an experiment we intend to pursue.

M32:30

对，不过我看不出有什么理由觉得它不能继续经营得相当好。

No, but I see no reason to think it wouldn't continue to do quite well.

对。

Right.

它一直是被非常用心地搭建起来的，本身就留有一定的安全边际。

It's been lovingly put together to have a certain margin of safety.

M22:41

其实，如果让我们选的话，我们感兴趣的是第三到第二十三个——嗯，第二十五个——这些人。

We actually, if we have a choice, it's number 3 through 23, though—25—that we're interested in.

好，请 8 区提问。

Okay, area 8, please.