2007年股东大会 · 股东问巴菲特：中国的银行业面临怎样的危机？ — 文稿

M10:00

大家好，我是来自 Kansas City 的 John Golub。

Hi, I'm John Golub from Kansas City.

我有一个关于中国经济的问题。

I have a question about the Chinese economy.

有些观察人士认为，中国的银行体系看起来有点像九十年代的日本。

Some observers have suggested that the Chinese banking system looks a little like Japan back in the 1990s.

你会不会担心，中国也可能会经历像日本在九十年代那样的动荡？

Are you concerned that China could experience similar disruptions as Japan in the '90s?

还是说，中国因为制度不同，可能对经济冲击更有抵抗力？

Or is China possibly, with different institutions, possibly more resistant to economic disruptions?

M20:41

这个问题的答案，我得说我不知道。

I would have to say I don't know the answer to that.

我的意思是，这是个非常有意思的问题。

I mean, it's a very interesting question.

也是个非常重要的问题。

It's a very important question.

你知道，日本后来会发生什么，在事情发生之前，我也不见得真的看懂了；而我对中国银行的了解，基本上等于零。

You know, I didn't necessarily understand what was going to happen in Japan before it happened, and my insight into Chinese banks is about zero.

我们曾经有机会投资几家中国银行，但还是那句话，因为我对它们不了解，所以我都放弃了。

We've been offered chances to buy into various Chinese banks, and again, because I don't know anything about them, I pass.

这并不是在判断它们有什么不好。

It's no judgment that there's anything bad.

这只是说，我坐在 Nebraska 的 Omaha，对它们贷款和垫款科目里到底包含什么、那家机构实际是怎么运作的，都不了解，我根本没法判断它值 X、半个 X、两个 X，还是四分之一个 X。我就是不知道。

It just means that sitting in Omaha, Nebraska, not knowing what some item of loans and advances, what composes it, or anything about the real operation of the place, that I can make a decision whether it's worth X, half of X, 2X, quarter of X. I just don't know.

而且我，我真的不知道——我对你这个问题的答案完全没概念，不过也许 Charlie 知道。

And I, I really don't know the— I just have no notion as to the answer to your question, but maybe Charlie does.

M31:37

嗯，如果你停下来想一想，过去十五年里我们在中国看到的所有惊人的经济进步，都是伴随着他们国有银行里一些做法发生的；如果你拿这些做法去跟正常的银行业标准比，真的会让人发怵。

Well, if you stop to think about it, all of the remarkable economic progress that we've seen in China in the last 15 years has been accompanied by practices in their government banks that would make you shudder if you compared them to normal banking standards.

所以你现在看到的一切进步，某种意义上都是在这种背景下发生的——你知道，那些银行几乎是在发救济金一样地把钱撒出去，而不是按正常银行业务来做。

So everything you see in terms of progress has occurred despite— you know, the banks were almost doling out money for aid as distinguished from doing normal banking.

所以，要我断言这一定会导致中国出现巨大的经济崩溃，我会非常谨慎。

So I'd be very leery of predicting that that's sure to cause a huge economic collapse in China.

他们这样做已经很长时间了，而且现在实际上也可能在变得更好。

They've been doing it for a long time, and they may actually be getting better now.

M22:27

对，我们这个国家也经历过不少银行业麻烦。

Yeah, we've had our share of banking troubles in this country.

我是说，储贷危机以及各种各样的问题，离现在也没过去多久。

I mean, it wasn't that long ago in terms of the savings and loan crisis and all kinds of things.

但强劲的经济体是能挺过这些事情的。

And strong economies come through those things.

所以——你知道，如果你事先看到了商业银行卷入的那些海外贷款问题，还有储贷机构卷入的那些房地产贷款问题，你可能会说，美国经济要惨了。

So the— you know, if, if ahead of time you'd seen all the problems with foreign loans that the commercial banks got into, all the problems with real estate loans that the savings and loans got into, you could have said, you know, it's going to be terrible for the American economy.

而且这些问题也确实造成了很多错位和冲击之类的后果。

And it did produce a lot of dislocations and all of that.

但是如果你回头看美国经济的记录，它经历了各种各样的金融危机，可人均实际产出还是在一个相当可观的速度上，十年接十年地持续增长。

But if you look at the record of the American economy, it's come through all kinds of financial crises with the real output per capita rising at a very substantial rate just decade after decade.

所以我不知道中国会发生什么。

So I don't know what will happen in China.

我觉得，就已经取得的这些成果来说，真的很了不起，嗯，嗯，而且我认为这些成果——我认为还会继续取得。

I think it's pretty amazing in terms of the gains that have been made, uh, uh, and I think they'll— I think they'll be— I think they'll continue to be made.

不过银行体系会怎么样，我就不知道了。

I don't know what will happen with the banking system though.

六号。

Number 6.