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芒格:这个世界上最重要的事,是中美关系的和谐

43 段 · 3 位说话人 · 原片 5:25
F1
F10:00

Buffett 先生,你很多次都表达过你对 America 未来的乐观,而且你也经常提到,美国就是有一个更优越的经济体系。

Mr. Buffett, you have expressed your optimism about the future of America many times and have often made the point that the U.S. simply has a superior economic system.

但我的问题——这个问题来自 New York City 的 Christopher Gaccio——我的问题是关于化学、核、生物,还有网络安全这些风险。

But my question—and this is from Christopher Gaccio of New York City—my question concerns the risk of chemical, nuclear, biological, and cybersecurity problems.

这些威胁会怎么影响你的看法?

How do these threats affect your outlook?
M1
M10:29

这个嘛,它们是 America 面临的重大威胁。

Well, they are the great threat to the United States.

我们会有——我们现在有,而且以后也会一直有——一个很棒的经济体系。

We will have—we have and will have—a wonderful economic system.

你知道,你的孩子会过得比你更好,你的孙辈会过得比他们还要更好。

You know, your children are going to live better than you do, and your grandchildren are going to live better than they do.

就是这样。

And that is that.

过程中当然会有波折,会有起起伏伏,但你只要走到外面看看,或者你坐飞机回家的时候,想象一下你飞过的这片土地在一七七六年是什么样子,那之后的一切都算是增益。

There are fits and starts and ups and downs, but just go outside, or when you fly home, just imagine what you're flying over looked like in 1776, and everything since then is profit.

我的意思是,农场的生产效率已经高得惊人了。

I mean, the farms are incredibly more productive.

城市也发展起来了。

The cities have grown.

这一切都在这里,而这一切,都是因为在一个运转得相当不错的制度里,美国人民的活力和智慧被释放了出来,尽管这个制度也有我们一直在谈的各种缺陷。

It's all here, and that's all come from unleashing the energies and brains of the American people in a system that has worked quite well despite all the deficiencies that we talk about all the time.

所以这些东西一点都没有丢掉。

So that hasn't been lost at all.

你知道,人们会因为我们只有百分之二的增长就感到沮丧。

You know, people get upset because we're having 2% growth.

可如果百分之二的增长,配上百分之一的人口增长,那就意味着一代人的时间里会有百分之二十的提升。

Well, 2% growth with 1% population growth means a 20% gain in a generation.

而按人均 GDP 五万四千美元来算,百分之二十就意味着下一代人均 GDP 还会再增加一万美元。

And 20% on $54,000 of GDP per capita is another $10,000 of GDP per capita coming in the next generation.

这个国家的未来非常美好,但就像提问者指出的那样,这一切也可能会被完全抵消,

This country has a wonderful future, but as the questioner pointed out, that can all be nullified

不管是疯子、流氓国家、宗教狂热分子、反社会人格者,还是什么别的人,只要他们想获得大规模杀伤性武器,或者核武器——我以前一直觉得核是最主要的那一种。

by either madmen or rogue states or religious fanatics or sociopaths or whatever it may be who wish to have access to weapons of mass destruction and to nuclear, which I used to think was the primary one.

现在你还得把生物、化学和 cyber 也加进去。

You can now add biological and chemical and cyber.

而且这种威胁会越来越多。

And there will be an increasing number.

现在已经有大量的人

There already are a huge number of people

希望造成伤害,尤其是针对 America,当然对别的国家也是一样。

that would wish harm, and particularly on the United States, although on others as well.

而这些人不会消失,他们会寻找更巧妙的办法,去利用他们已经能接触到、或者将来可能接触到的原材料,以及更好的投送系统。

And those people aren't going to go away, and they're going to look for more ingenious ways of utilizing the raw materials that they have access to or might get access to and better delivery systems.

所以 America 需要一套极其警觉的安全体系,而且我们也一定会继续面临各种威胁。

And we need an extremely vigilant security operation in the United States, and we will have threats.

这些事情确实会让我在某些方面有一点担心,但这就是我们要共存的现实。

I do worry a little bit about those things in a few ways, but that's something we live with.

但我们同时也生活在一个将会表现得极其出色的国家里。如果我们能成功挡住这些威胁,或者至少把它们对我们的影响降到最低,我依然认为,从概率上来说,历史上最幸运的人,就是今天出生在 America 的那个婴儿。

But we also live in a country that is going to do extraordinarily well, and if we successfully ward off those threats, or at least minimize their impact on us, I still maintain that the luckiest person ever born in history on a probabilistic basis is the baby being born in the United States today.

Charlie?

Charlie?
M2
M23:27

嗯,当然,我们一直处在一个很受眷顾的位置,我们也得到了很受眷顾的结果,而且我们也很幸运。

Well, of course, we were a favored place and we've had a favored outcome and we've been lucky too.

我想,我大概活在了人类历史上任何一个人都最适合出生的时代。

I think I probably lived in the most ideal era that any man in human history could have been born into.

我想你也是,Warren。

I think you have too, Warren.
F1
F13:46

对。

Right.
M2
M23:47

但我觉得,我们也不该太自鸣得意。

But I don't think we should get too smug.

China 的崛起速度,比历史上任何一个其他大国都要快得多。

China has come up a lot faster than any other big nation ever came up.
M1
M13:57

但这对我们是好事。

But that's good for us.
M2
M23:59

嗯,我觉得,我觉得——我几乎想不出还有什么事,比未来 United States 和 China 之间更紧密的合作更重要。

Well, I think, I think— I can hardly think of anything more important than future close collaboration between the United States and China.

你说的是,未来世界上最重要的两个国家,我觉得非常重要的一点是,我们彼此要喜欢、要信任,要保持非常好的关系,并且一起努力,避免因为别人的错误和不当行为带来的坏后果。

You're talking about the two most important nations in the world going forward, and I think it is very important that we like and trust one another and have very good relations and work together to avoid bad consequences that come from other people's mistakes and misbehavior.

所以我——我觉得,不管是 China 还是 United States,如果不合作、不增进互信,那就太疯狂了。

So I'm— I think both China and the United States would be crazy not to collaborate and increase trust.

我觉得,为了我们各自的安全,也为了全世界的整体福祉,没有什么事情比这更重要。

I don't think there's anything more important that we can do for our respective safety and for the general benefit of the world.
M1
M14:57

如果让你选,你会更愿意带着你现在拥有的这些特质,出生在现在,还是出生在你当年的那个时代?

If you had your choice, would you rather be born now with all the qualities you've got or when you were born?
M2
M25:08

嗯,我得说,现在这个时代确实很有意思。

Well, I must say it's very interesting now.

我觉得这个问题太难回答了。

I think that's too tough a question.

我不太喜欢这种特别理论化的问题。

I don't like these very theoretical questions.

我更愿意想一些,能让我获得点优势,或者能帮助别人获得优势的事情。

I'd rather think about something where I might gain some advantage or help somebody else to gain an advantage.
M1
M15:23

好,那我们接着请 Jonathan。

Okay, then we'll move on to Jonathan.