2002年股东大会 · 一家企业建立起经济护城河需要多少时间？ — 文稿

M10:00

早上好，Buffett 先生，Munger 先生。

Good morning, Mr. Buffett, Mr. Munger.

我叫 Jerry McLaughlin。

My name is Jerry McLaughlin.

我来自加州的 San Mateo。

I'm from San Mateo, California.

首先，我就是想感谢你们在 annual reports、letters，还有这些交流里投入的所有心血。

First, I just want to thank you for all the effort you put into the annual reports, the letters, and, and these conversations.

我真的学到了很多，而且这些内容都特别棒，这也是为什么我从半个美国之外专门赶来这里。

I've learned a lot, and they're terrific, which is why I'm here from half a country away.

M20:17

谢谢。

Thank you.

M10:17

你们知道，你们说过，伟大的公司就是那些拥有 economic moat 的公司。

You know, you've said that great companies are those that have an economic moat.

我理解这个说法的意思，就是可持续的竞争优势。

And I understand that phrase to mean a sustainable competitive advantage.

企业是一开始就具备可持续竞争优势，还是说这个东西必须经过很长时间才能发展出来？

Do businesses begin their lives with sustainable competitive advantages, or must that be developed over a very long time?

还有，你们见过的那些成功建立起可持续竞争优势的公司，它们最根本的基础都是什么？

And then, what are the fundamental bases upon which you've seen companies successfully develop sustainable competitive advantages.

在这些基础里面，你们觉得哪一种最持久，哪一种最不持久？

Of those, which do you think is the most enduring and which is the least?

M31:03

嗯，有时候它们可以发展得非常快。

Well, sometimes they can develop it very quickly.

我的意思是，我会说 Microsoft 在 operating system 这方面，你知道，那是一个发展得相对很快的例子，不过那也是一个正在爆发式增长的行业，很多事情变化都非常快。

I mean, I would say that Microsoft, in terms of the operating system, you know, that was a relatively quick development, but that was an industry that was exploding and things were changing very fast.

另一方面，如果你回头看 See's Candies，它是一九二一年开始的，你知道，要建立起可持续的竞争优势，至少是那种看得出来、辨认得出的竞争优势，用短于几十年的时间来衡量，基本是不可能的。

On the other hand, if you go back to See's Candies, which started in 1921, you know, there was no way you could build a sustainable competitive advantage, at least that would be recognizable, in times measured shorter than decades.

我的意思是，他们一次只开一家店，一开始根本没人听说过你，后来才慢慢有一些人知道。

I mean, you opened up one shop at a time, and nobody had heard of you originally, and then a few people did.

而且盒装巧克力这种东西，你知道，人们可能一年也就买一两次，用在节日之类的场合，不管是什么场合。

And box chocolates were something that, you know, people may have bought once or twice a year for holiday occasions or whatsoever.

所以，你不可能只是因为你做出了一盒特别出色的巧克力，就在一两年、五年之内把自己深深印进加州人的脑海里。

So, you weren't going to embed yourself in the minds of Californians in 1 or 2 or 5 years just because you were turning out an outstanding box of chocolates.

所以，这要看情况。

So it depends.

这取决于这个行业本身是怎么发展的。

It depends on the way the industry itself is developing.

你知道，Walmart 在相当短的时间里就做得非常出色，简直不可思议。

You know, Walmart has done a fabulous job, an incredible job, in quite a short period of time.

不过就连他们也是，你知道，他们先从小镇做起，一路推进，同时不断打磨自己的方法。

But even they, you know, they took it in the small towns, and they progressed along and refined their techniques as they went.

不过我会说，在新兴行业里，的确可能会有这样的情况。

But I would say that there could be things in new industries.

我会说，NetJets 就拥有可持续的竞争优势。

I would say with NetJets, we have a sustainable competitive advantage.

而那个行业其实是一九八六年 Rich Santulli 产生那个想法的时候才开始出现的。

And that's an industry that was only originated in 1986, when Rich Santulli got the idea.

而且那时候它还处在——我的意思是——完全的婴儿期。

And it was in its—I mean, total infancy.

M12:38

对。

Yeah.

M32:39

在那之后的很多年里都是这样。

For a good many years after that.

但是，呃，他已经建立起来、还在持续建设、并且不断加固的，正是这种可持续的竞争优势。

But, uh, what he has built is, and is building and, and fortifying, is that sustainable competitive advantage.

不过这很大程度上取决于你所处的行业。

But it depends very much on the industry you're in.

我的意思是，Coca-Cola，一八八六年，Georgia 州 Atlanta 的 Jacob's Pharmacy，你知道，John Pemberton 想出了这个产品。

And I mean, Coca-Cola, 1886, Jacob's Pharmacy, Atlanta, Georgia, you know, John Pemberton came up with the product.

他在那一天有可持续的竞争优势吗？

Did he have a sustainable competitive advantage that day?

如果有的话，他也把它搞砸了，因为他两千美元就把那个地方卖了。

If he did, he blew it because he sold the place for $2,000.

现在他成了个赌徒。

Today he's a gambler.

嗯，他当时确实有。

Uh, he did.

而且那是花了几十年时间，在那期间经历了成千上万个竞争对手。

And it took decades, thousands of competitors over that time.

而且，你知道，他们一次就只是刷一个谷仓，一次就只是设计一张 Saturday Evening Post 广告，诸如此类。

And, you know, but they were painting one barn at a time and designing one Saturday Evening Post ad at a time and all of that.

就像小石子一样，你知道，慢慢散布到全世界。

And pebbles, you know, around the world.

到第二次世界大战的时候，General Eisenhower 去找 Mr. Woodruff，对他说，我希望每一个美国军人手边都能有一瓶 Coke。

In World War II, General Eisenhower went to Mr. Woodruff and he said, I want a Coke within arm's length of every American serviceman.

M23:35

哇。

Wow.

M33:35

他说，我想给他们一点能让他们想起家的东西。

He said, I want something to remind them of home.

所以，他就在世界各地为 Coke 建了很多装瓶厂。

And so, he built a lot of bottling plants for Coke around the world.

而且，你知道，那是个巨大的推动力。

And, you know, that was a huge impetus.

但那已经是这个产品发明出来大概六十年以后了。

But that was, what, 60 years or so after the product was invented.

所以，在某些类型的产品上，这要花很长时间；不过我也能想到，世界上有些领域里，巨大的竞争优势可以在很短时间内建立起来。

So, it takes a long time in certain kinds of products, but I could see certain areas of the world where a huge competitive advantage built in a very short period of time.

比如说，我会说在动画长片这个领域，Walt Disney 大概就是这么做到的。

I would say that probably in terms of animated feature-length films, for example, Walt Disney did that.

而且，你知道，在《Snow White》和后面的几部作品之后，他过了一阵子才真正把这个优势变现，但后来这个领域在相当长一段时间里，很快就变成了 Disney 的天下，几乎没有别人。

And, you know, after Snow White and a few more, it took him a while till he could cash in on it, but he—it became Disney and nobody else in that field for quite a while, and fairly quickly.

Charlie？

Charlie?

M24:25

对，能创造可持续竞争优势的模式有很多种。

Yeah, there are a lot of different models that create a sustainable competitive advantage.

当然也有一些模式，会让你非常快地失去这种优势。

And there are also some models of, of, of where you can lose it very fast.

你去问问 Arthur Andersen 就知道了。

You just ask Arthur Andersen.

就在不久以前，那在美国还是个非常响亮的名字。

That, that was a very good name in America not very long ago.

而我觉得，要毁掉 Wrigley's gum 的好名声，会比毁掉 Arthur Andersen 的好名声更难。

And I think it would be harder to lose the good name of Wrigley's gum than the good name of Arthur Andersen.

我觉得，有些人随着时间建立起来的竞争优势真是了不起；而投资过程中最大的麻烦在于，这些优势实在太他妈明显了，所以它们的股票价格都会卖得非常高。

I think there's some perfectly remarkable competitive advantages that people have gotten over time, and the great trouble with the investment process is that they're so damned obvious that the stocks sell at very high prices.

M35:18

Snickers 大概已经有三十年到四十年，一直都是排名第一的 candy bar 了。

Snickers has been the number one candy bar for probably 30 or 40 years now.

M25:21

现在，对，在 Russia，结果发现每个人都喜欢 Snickers。

Now, yeah, in Russia, it turns out everybody likes Snickers.

对。

Yeah.

M35:26

那——你到底要怎么才能把它拉下马呢？

What—how do you really knock it off?

你知道，我是说，我们也做糖果。

You know, I mean, we make candy.

我们，我们当然很想取代 Snickers，但很难想出办法把它们从第一的位置上挤下来。

We, we would love to displace Snickers, but it's hard to think of ways to knock them from the number one spot.

我是说，我猜十年以后，它们在 candy bar 这个品类里大概还是第一，而且这个领域的榜单变化不会太大，因为，呃，如果你想想人们是怎么做这种选择的——如果你五年前嚼的是 spearmint 口香糖，那你今天去买一包口香糖时，很可能还是会买 spearmint。

I mean, my guess is that they'll be number one in, you know, 10 years from now in, in candy bars, and, and the list doesn't change much in that field because, uh, if you think about the nature of how you make that choice as to what candy bar—if you were chewing spearmint chewing gum 5 years ago and you buy a pack of some chewing gum today, it's likely to be spearmint.

我的意思是，有些东西你会反复去尝试很多次，但也有些东西，一旦你满意了，你就不会再瞎折腾了。

I mean, there's just— there are things that you experiment a lot with, and there are things that you don't fool around with once you're happy.

这个道理，你观察一下你自己的习惯，再看看你身边人的习惯，其实就能明白。

And, you know, you can understand that if you observe your own habits and people's habits around you.

不过还有一点——通常如果某样东西能非常快地获得竞争优势，那你也得担心，它可能也会非常快地失去这个优势。

But there's other— usually if something can gain competitive advantage very quickly, you have to worry about them losing it quickly too.

我的意思是，当一个行业处在剧烈变化中的时候，很多人都觉得自己会是最后活下来的那一个，或者会是那个 prosper 的人，但结果往往并不是那样。

I mean, when an industry is in flux, there are a lot of people that think they're the survivors or the, or the ones that are going to prosper, where it turns out otherwise.

第五个领域。

Area five.