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1998年股东大会 · 巴菲特对投资汽车行业的看法

32 段 · 2 位说话人 · 原片 2:25
M1
M10:00

下午好,Buffett 先生,Munger 先生。

Good afternoon, Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger.

我有点好奇,想请你们说说,你们知不知道,或者能不能告诉我们,Nebraska Furniture Mart 和 Borsheims 在投资汽车行业这件事上,做了多少业务?

I was kind of curious if you could tell me, do you know or can you tell us how much business Nebraska Furniture Mart and Borsheims—in investing in the auto industry?

如果现在还不感兴趣的话,那未来这个行业发生什么变化,才会让你们改变看法呢?

And if not interested now, what would change your mind about this industry in the future?
M2
M20:19

嗯,第一个问题,我不知道 the mart 那边做了多少,不过我确实知道,那里去了很多股东。

Well, the first question, I don't know what the mart did, but I do know they had a lot of shareholders there.

这个我拿到过口头汇报。

I've gotten that verbal report on that.

你知道,你说的 the mart 那家公司,平均一天能做到八十万美元的营业额。

They do, you know, you're talking about a company at the mart that does $800,000 a day on average.

规模是很大的。

It is a big operation.

所以我们的股东确实会有影响,不过这个影响,相对来说没有在 Borsheims 那么大。

So our shareholders have an impact, but not the relative impact that they would have at Borsheims.

Borsheims 今年的业绩是去年的两倍多,而且他们那天的表现非常好。

Borsheims did over twice as much this year as last year, and they had a big day.

然后,呃,另一个问题是什么来着,Charlie?

And, uh, what was the other question, Charlie?
M1
M10:58

行业。

Industry.

汽车行业。

The auto industry.

哦,汽车行业。

Oh, the auto industry.

对,我们——

Yeah, we—.
M2
M21:01

Charlie,Charlie 在六十年代中期的时候,在 General Motors 上押得很重,对吧,Charlie?

Charlie, Charlie was big in General Motors in the mid-'60s, right, Charlie?

那是你当时最大的一笔投入。

And it's your biggest commitment.
M1
M11:07

我那时候有点冲动。

I had a temper.

好在后来过去了。

Luckily it passed.
M2
M21:14

对。

Yeah.

不,你在那上面是赚了钱的,Ted。

No, you made money on it, Ted.
M1
M11:17

对,我是赚到了。

Yes, I did.
M2
M21:20

我们——这类行业,是我们觉得值得关注、也挺有意思去跟踪的。

We— it's the kind of industry that's interesting for us to follow.

我的意思是,很多年前,它曾经是整个经济里最主导、或者说压倒性的因素。

I mean, many years ago it was the dominant factor, or overwhelming factor, in the economy.

现在它的重要性已经下降了不少,不过它依然是个非常重要的行业。

It's diminished a fair amount, but it's still a very important industry.

而且这也是一种任何人都能去跟踪的行业。

And it's the kind of industry that anyone can follow.

我的意思是,你对这个产品和它的竞争产品都有使用经验,而且你——这个房间里的每个人,大体上都明白这个行业在经济上的基本特性,但我们从来没觉得自己比别人更懂它。

I mean, you have experience with the product and competing products, and you— Everyone in this room understands in a general way the economic nature of the industry, but we've never felt that we understood it better than other people.

所以我们有时候也看到汽车公司市盈率非常低,价格现在回头看也显得很有吸引力,但我们从来没有真正觉得,我们知道五年以后这些汽车公司里,谁相对于现在会进步最多。

So we've seen auto companies at very low multiples sometimes, and, and with prices that in hindsight look very attractive, but we've never really felt that we knew who among the auto companies 5 years from now would have gained the most ground relative to where they are now.

或者说,谁会比市场预期进步得更多。

Or to gain the most ground relative to what the market might expect.

这种知识并不是我们所具备的。

It just isn't given to us, that, that knowledge.

Charlie?

Charlie?

我同意。

I agree.

Area 也是吗?

Area too?