M22:09
我的回答是，不，我们不会有兴趣投资这个基金。
I would say that no, we would not have an interest in investing in the fund.
毫无疑问，如果你处在这种早期推广的阶段，尤其是如果你在这方面已经有了成功的名声——不过在这个案例里差别可能也不大，因为整个领域都已经疯狂了——你把东西卖给下一阶段、再下一阶段、再下一阶段的人，就会赚很多钱。
There's no question, if you're in the early stages of promotion, and you particularly, if you've got a reputation as successful in that, but in this case it wouldn't make much difference because the whole field has gone wild, you will make a lot of money selling to the next stage and the next stage and the next stage.
但是，如果是要挑出那些作为企业本身会经营得非常出色的公司，不是说股票短期内表现很好，而是企业本身真正成功。
But in terms of picking out businesses that are going to do wonderfully as businesses, not as stocks for a while, but as businesses.
我觉得在 internet 世界里，这未必那么容易。
I don't think it's necessarily so easy in the internet world.
而且我会说，如果你去问这个领域里最顶尖的一些人物，让他们说出接下来冒出来的五家公司，或者十家公司，并预测其中有一家公司会在六七年之后，达到我刚才说的那个门槛，也就是赚到两亿美元，我不太确定——就算他们给你列一张名单——他们能不能说中哪怕一家。
And I would say that if you were to ask some very top names in the field to name the next 5 companies out of the chute, or the next 10 companies out of the chute, and predict that one of them will earn, say, the $200 million I used as a threshold, 6 or 7 years from now, I'm not so sure they— if they gave you a list that they would name a single one.
这并不是说，他们不能因为很早就投了这些公司而赚很多钱，因为他们可以卖给下一拨人，后面再卖给下一拨人，诸如此类。
That doesn't mean they might not make a lot of money by being early investors in them because they sell out to the next group and so on.
但到最后，它们必须作为企业真正成功，而真正能作为企业成功的，只会是少数。
But in the end, they have to succeed as businesses, and a few will succeed as businesses.
Internet 会对世界产生巨大的影响，但我不太确定这就意味着它是一个容易做出的投资决定。
The internet will have a huge impact on the world, but I'm not so sure that that makes it an easy investment decision.
至少对我们来说，这不是一个容易做出的投资决定。
Well, at least it's not an easy investment decision for us.
而我们要找的，恰恰是那种容易做判断的投资。
And that's what we're looking for.
对，我们是绝不会把钱交给别人去管的。
Yeah, we will never turn our money over to somebody else.
呃，你知道，如果我们要让你们这些 Berkshire 股东的钱亏掉，那也得是我们自己把它亏掉，然后我们会回来，直视着你们的眼睛，告诉你们我们是怎么亏的。
Uh, you know, if we're going to lose your money as Berkshire shareholders, we're going to lose it ourselves, and we're going to come back and look you in the eye and tell you how we lost it.
呃，我们不会说这个游戏太难了，所以我们把钱交给别人。
Uh, we are not going to say this game is too tough, so we'll give our money to somebody else.
如果你觉得这个游戏太难了，你可以把你的钱交给别人。
You can give your money to somebody else if you think this game is too tough, so we'll give our money to somebody else.
你可以把钱交给别人，而且你其实也不需要老是靠这些中间人。
You can give your money to somebody else and you don't need the intermediaries all the time.
你知道，就在过去这几天里，有人给我打了个电话，说的是一件你会非常熟悉的事，参与某个 fund。
I had a call, you know, within the last couple of days on something you would know very well about, participating in some fund.
他们总是这样，你知道，永远是什么 stage 1、stage 2、stage 3。
They always have, you know, it's always stage 1, stage 2, stage 3.
他们的想法就是，后面再找更多人进来，用两倍的价格买，也许因为我们的名字牵涉在里面，还会让别人愿意出更高的价。
And the idea is we get some more people to come in later at twice the price, and maybe the fact that our name is involved in it will cause people to pay even more.
把钱交给别人去管理。
Turn the money over to someone else to manage.
那是你的钱。
It's your money.
你把钱交给我们来管理。
You gave it to us to manage.
我们会来管理它。
We'll manage it.
如果你决定不想让我们继续替你管理，那就由你自己决定把钱交给谁。
If you decide you don't want us to manage it, you decide who you give it to.
我们不会在这件事上充当中间人。
We're not going to be intermediaries on it.
而且，如果有些东西我们自己都看不懂，我们也不会去找别人替我们做。
And if we don't understand something ourselves, we're not looking for anybody else to do it for us.
反正这个世界通常也不是这么运作的。
The world doesn't work very well that way anyway.
我的意思是，通常最后你会落到 promoter 手里，而不是落到那些真正知道怎么赚钱的人手里。
I mean, usually you end up in the hands of the promoter and not the hands of the people who really know how to make money.
Charlie，你要不要再展开讲讲？
Charlie, you want to elaborate?
好，Zone 7。
Okay, Zone 7.