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1996年股东大会 · 巴菲特谈那些他“永不卖出”的股票

16 段 · 3 位说话人 · 原片 1:54
M1
M10:01

Neil McMahon,纽约市。

Neil McMahon, New York City.

Berkshire 持有好几家公司的股票,这些都属于市场上那种顶级的、所谓“一买就拿着不动”的股票,市盈率很高,五十倍、六十倍 earnings。

Berkshire owns several companies' stock in several of the premier market's one-decision stocks, high P/Es, 50, 60 times earnings.

如果那种情况再次出现,Berkshire 持有的这些公司还会是永久持有吗,还是说万物都有一个价格?

If that were to reappear again, would Berkshire's companies still be permanent, or is there a price for everything?
M2
M20:22

嗯,有些东西我们觉得是没有——是没有价格可以让我们卖的,而且有时候市场也这样考验过我们,我们也没卖。

Well, there are things that we think there are no— there's no price for, and we've been tested sometimes and haven't sold them.

不过我,你知道,我的朋友 Bill Gates 说过,你知道,这种想法到某个点上一定是不合逻辑的。

But I, you know, my friend Bill Gates says, you know, that has to be illogical at some point.

数字摆在那里——到了某个价格,你总得愿意卖掉某样属于 marketable security 的东西,先不说控股的 business。

The numbers have— at some price, you have to be willing to sell something that's a marketable security, forgetting about a controlled business.

不过我怀疑我们以后会不会真碰上这种考验——真正属于那一类的也就只有几样。

But I doubt if we ever get tested on— there's only a couple of them in that category.

其实,那——对,这个我就不评论了。

Actually, there— yeah, I won't comment on that.

那个——如果一门生意我们既喜欢这个 business,也喜欢这群人,那我们就会非常非常不愿意卖掉,所以我——Charlie?

The— We really have a great reluctance to sell businesses where we like both the business and the people, so I— Charlie?
M3
M31:03

所谓的 two-tier market 确实带来了一些困难,我会说,主要是因为很多人或者很多公司被归到了 Tier 1,但其实它们并不是真的 Tier 1。

The so-called two-tier market created difficulties, I would say primarily because a lot of people or companies were called Tier 1 when they really weren't.

它们只不过是在某个时期曾经是 Tier 1 而已。

They just had been at some time a Tier 1.

如果你对这些公司判断是对的,那即便估值相当高,你也可以继续持有。

If you're right about the companies, you can hold them at pretty high values.
M2
M21:30

对,如果你手里的是——因为太难找到——你根本找不到同样那么好的 business,那你确实可以在非常惊人的价位上继续拿着。

Yeah, you can really hold them at extraordinary levels if you've got— it's too hard to find— you're not going to find businesses that are as good.

所以这时候你就得问自己,我以后有没有机会用低得多的价格,把同一家 business 再买回来?或者,我能不能用低得多的价格,买到一个几乎一样好的东西?

So then you have to say, am I going to get a chance to buy back the same business at a lot lower price, or am I going to buy something that's almost as good at a lot lower price?

而我们并不觉得自己很擅长做这种事。

And we don't think we're very good at doing that.

我们更愿意就是坐着,继续拿着这个 business,假装股票市场根本不存在。

We'd rather just sit and hold the business and pretend the stock market doesn't exist.