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中国股东提问:价值投资到底是否适合中国股市?

47 段 · 3 位说话人 · 原片 5:52
M1
M10:00

特别让人兴奋。

Very exciting.

对,什么?

Yeah, what?

能在这里看到我的超级明星们,真是太让人兴奋了。

Very exciting to see my superstars here.

我是 Leo,来自中国的一名价值投资者,也是你和 Charlie 的忠实粉丝。

I'm Leo, a value investor from China and a loyal fan of you and Charlie.

很多中国投资者都感受到各种各样的业绩压力,会质疑价值投资,甚至嘲笑价值投资。

Many Chinese investors feel all kinds of performance pressure, question, and even laugh at value investing.

还有很多人认为,价值投资不适用于中国,因为中国股市在过去六个月里刚刚翻了一倍。

Many also believe that value investing does not apply to China, where the stock market just doubled over the last 6 months.

我想请问 Buffett 先生,您觉得价值投资是可以广泛适用于所有市场,还是说只适用于像美国这样比较成熟的市场?

I would like to ask Mr. Buffett, do you think value investing can be widely applied in all markets, or just for mature markets, such as the ones in the United States?

对于价值投资者,您有没有什么建议,能帮助他们顶住压力,也过得更开心一些?

Do you have any suggestions for value investors to hold against pressure and to be much happier?

谢谢。

Thank you.
M2
M21:00

好,我不确定我是不是全都听明白了,不过 Charlie 会帮我的。

Okay, I'm not sure I got all of it, but Charlie will help me.

我当然认为,投资原则不会因为国界不同就失效。

I certainly think investment principles do not stop at borders.

所以,如果我是在中国,或者其他任何地方投资,比如 India、UK、Germany,我都会完全按照我从 The Intelligent Investor 里学到的那套原则来做。

So if I were investing in China or anyplace else, India, UK, Germany, I would apply exactly the same sort of principles that I learned from The Intelligent Investor.

我会把股票看成是一家企业的一小部分。

I would think of stocks as a small piece of a business.

我会认为,投资上的波动是用来让我受益的,而不是伤害我的。

I would think of investment fluctuations being there to benefit me rather than to hurt me.

我会尽量把注意力放在那些企业上,也就是我认为自己理解它们竞争优势、也理解它们在五年或十年后会是什么样子的企业。

And I would try to focus my attention on businesses where I thought I understood the competitive advantage they had and what they would look like in 5 or 10 years.

所以我觉得,这些原则我一点都不会改。

So I don't think I would change the principles at all.

不过我不确定我是不是完全听懂了这个问题。

I'm not sure I got all of the question.

也许 Charlie 可以把剩下的部分展开讲讲。

Maybe Charlie can elaborate on the rest.
M3
M31:53

中国人一直以来都很有创业精神,而且一旦有机会,也很喜欢大手笔地去博一把,这就造成了中国股市非常大的波动。

Well, the Chinese have a history of being very entrepreneurial and of gambling very heavily when they have the opportunity, and it has created great volatility in the Chinese stock markets.

当市场变得很热闹、很繁荣的时候,就像我们美国这边当年的 internet 狂潮一样,中国看起来就很像 Silicon Valley。

And when things get bouncy and prosperous like our internet craze here in the United States, China looks a lot like Silicon Valley.

我觉得,如果中国能更有价值投资者的思维,而不是那么沉迷于一波又一波的投机,那中国会做得好得多。

I think China would do way better to be more value-investor-minded and less absorbed in waves of speculation.

所以我认为,中国越是借鉴 Berkshire 的运作方式,对中国就越有好处。

So I think the more China copies the way Berkshire operates, I think the better it'll be for China.
M2
M22:33

对,这里面有一种特别讽刺的地方,就是如果我们身处一个大家都非常愚蠢地操作的市场里,反而会在几十年的时间里做得最好。

Yeah, there's a certain irony that we would do the best over decades if we operated in a market where people operated very foolishly.

而且,人们越是对短期事件、夸大的东西,或者任何让人变得极度兴奋、或者极度沮丧的事情做出反应,实际上就越给别人提供了在证券市场里赚很多钱的机会。

And the more people respond to short-term events and exaggerated things, or anything that causes people to get wildly enthusiastic or wildly depressed, actually, is what allows people to make lots of money in securities.

但反过来说,这对整个社会未必是什么好事。

And on the other hand, it's not the greatest thing for a society.

Charlie 和我之所以受益巨大,很大程度上是因为在五十年的时间里,市场上出现过几次这样的阶段,其中可能最极端的就是一九七三年和七四年,那时候你可以买到便宜得不可思议的股票,甚至比二零零八年和二零零九年还便宜。

And Charlie and I have benefited enormously by the fact that over a 50-year period, there have been a few periods, probably the most extraordinary being 1973 and '74, where you could buy stocks unbelievably cheap, cheaper than happened in 2008 and 2009.

而且你知道,市场出现这么大的波动,其实并不合理,但人就是会那样表现,人类就是会按人类的方式行事,而且未来五十年他们也还是会这样。

And, you know, it doesn't make sense to have that much volatility in the market, but humans behave the way humans behave, and they're going to continue to behave that way in the next 50 years.

我的意思是,如果你是个年轻的投资者,你能够稍微退后一步,把股票当成企业来估值,并且在价格非常便宜的时候投资,不管电视上别人怎么说,或者你读到了什么。

I mean, if you're a young investor and you can sort of stand back and value stocks as businesses, and invest when things are very cheap, no matter what anybody is saying on television or what you're reading.

然后也许,如果你愿意的话,在大家变得特别狂热的时候卖出。

And perhaps, if you wish, sell when people get terribly enthused.

这其实并不是一个特别难的智力游戏。

It is really not a very tough intellectual game.

如果你能控制住自己的情绪,这就是个很容易玩的游戏。

It's an easy game if you can control your emotions.

就像 Charlie 说的,他觉得——我们也稍微聊过一点——中国市场里可能比美国还更受投机因素影响,因为它是个相对比较新的发展阶段,所以可能更容易走向更极端的波动。

And as Charlie says, he thinks—we've talked about it a little bit—that the Chinese market may be more—there may be more speculative influences in it even than in the United States because it's a relatively new development, and it may lend itself to greater extremes.

而这应该会带来很好的机会。

And that should produce great opportunities.

Charlie?

Charlie?
M3
M34:38

对,是这样。过度投机、非正常繁荣之后那种很难受的剧烈收缩,这里面确实有很多机会,诸如此类。

Yeah, well, there's great opportunities for excess and nasty contractions after unnatural booms and so on.

我觉得中国压制这种投机性的繁荣是明智的。

I think China is wise to dampen the speculative booms.

我也觉得——我不认为价值投资会有过时的那一天。

And I think the Chinese—I don't think value investing will ever go out of style.

买东西的时候,谁会不想要价值呢?

Who in the hell doesn't want value when you buy something?

除了价值投资,还有什么是说得通的呢?

How can there be anything else that makes any sense except value investing?
M2
M25:12

不过它从来都不会变得那么受欢迎。

It never gets that popular though.
M3
M35:15

人们总是在找一条更轻松的路,但那是个错误。

People are looking for an easier way, and that's a mistake.

看起来更容易,但实际上更难,而且错误地玩股票,会给自己带来很多痛苦。

It looks easier, but in fact, it's harder, and there's a lot of misery to be obtained by misusing stocks.
M2
M25:29

对,没人会为了下周或者下个月赚一大笔钱去买农场,或者去买一栋公寓楼。

Yeah, nobody buys a farm to make a lot of money next week or next month, or they buy an apartment house.

他们买这些东西,是基于他们对长期前景的判断;如果他们做了一个理性的计算,觉得买入价格也很有吸引力,那他们就会买。

They buy it based on what they think the long-term future is, and if they get a—if they make a reasoned calculation of that and the purchase price looks attractive, they buy it.

然后他们不会每天、每周、每月,甚至每年都去看一个报价。

And then they don't get a quote on it every day or every week or every month or even every year.

而这可能才是看待股票更好的方式。

And that's probably a better way to look at stocks.

Carol?

Carol?