M10:30
嗯，这真是一个特别棒的问题。
Well, that's an absolutely terrific question.
你知道吗，也许我该把我的钱交给你来管。
You know, I may turn my money over to you.
这大概是我们今天能听到的最好的问题了。
There's probably no better question we'll get.
我希望 Charlie 回答的时候，能考虑到你的年纪，用合适一点的方式来说。
And I hope Charlie answers in an appropriate vein considering your age.
我们，我们不是——你知道，这不是什么宗教信仰，说我们就是不买科技公司。
We, we do not— we have no, you know, it's no religious belief that we don't, we don't buy into tech companies.
只是我们没有——我们从来没找到过一家，嗯，按照通常定义来说的科技公司。
We just don't— we have never found one, um, as conventionally defined.
我们从来没有找到过这样一家公司：我们觉得自己足够了解它十年后会是什么样子，因此能够理性地判断，今天该为这家公司付多少钱。
We've never found one where we think we know enough about what the business will look like in 10 years that we can make a rational decision as to how much we pay now for that business.
换句话说，我们一直没能找到这样一种生意：我们觉得自己知道十年后那片灌木丛会是什么样，也知道里面会有多少只鸟，这样我们才知道，今天该放弃多少只鸟，去换取未来参与其中的机会。
In other words, we have not been able to find a business where we think we know what that bush will look like in 10 years and how many birds will be in it so that we know how many birds we can give up today to participate in that future.
不是说没有——正如 Charlie 讲得很生动的那样，这些公司里将来一定会发展出很多很了不起的东西，但我们不知道该怎么做这个判断。
Not any— there will be wonderful things, as Charlie so colorfully explained, that will evolve from many of these companies, but we don't know how to make that decision.
而且你说得完全对。
And you are absolutely right.
我们确实应该一直都在想，科技领域的发展会不会威胁到我们现在所处的这些业务，我们该怎么应对这些威胁，又该怎么利用其中带来的机会。
That we should be thinking all of the time about whether developments in that tech area, uh, threaten the businesses that we're in now, how we might counter those threats, how we might capitalize on opportunities because of it.
这在当下的商业环境里，是非常、非常、非常重要的一部分，而且未来几年会变得更重要，包括我们很多业务都是这样。比如说，你提到了 Washington Post。
It's a very, very, very important part of business now and will become more important in the years to come, including many of our businesses. For example, you mentioned the Washington Post.
再说一个离我们更近的例子，我们在 New York 的 Buffalo 拥有一家报纸，叫 Buffalo News。
Even closer to home, we own a newspaper called the Buffalo News in Buffalo, New York.
那家报纸我们是全资拥有的，所以在经营层面上，关于怎么应对互联网，我们可以自己做决定。
We own all of that, so we're in a position to make our own decisions of an operating nature as to what we should do in respect to the internet.
我跟你说，今天也在现场的 Stan Lipsey——他负责经营那家报纸——我和他已经谈过很多很多个小时了，就连昨天我们都花了不少时间讨论：我们在互联网上现在在做什么、应该做什么、别人都在做什么、互联网怎么威胁我们、我们又该怎么应对这些威胁，诸如此类的问题。
And believe me, Stan Lipsey, who's here today, who runs that paper, and I have talked many, many hours, including considerable time yesterday about what we are doing on the internet, what we should be doing, what other people are doing, how it threatens us, how we can counter those threats, all of that sort of thing.
而在我看来，报纸这个类别，受到互联网的威胁是非常大的，因为我们已经有一个现成的例子。
And newspapers are a category that, in my view, are very threatened by the internet because we had an example.
互联网在传递信息这件事上非常厉害。
The internet is terrific for delivering information.
我们有一个产品，叫 World Book，它在传递信息这方面也非常出色。
We have a product, World Book, that's terrific for delivering information.
十五年前，纸质百科全书大概还是最好的工具，不光是教育小孩子，就连我或者 Charlie 想查某个主题的资料时，它也是很好的工具。
And 15 years ago, print encyclopedias were the best tool probably for educating not only young children, but for educating me or Charlie when we wanted to look up something on a subject.
而 World Book 是个非常棒的产品，但它需要砍树，需要运营造纸厂，需要装订和印刷，还得配送一个七十磅重的，你知道，UPS 包裹。
And the World Book is a marvelous product, but it requires chopping down trees, and it requires operating paper mills, and it requires binding and printing, and it requires delivery of a 70-pound, you know, UPS package.
而且这种产品的组织方式，在过去四百年到五百年里，一直都是把这些信息从整理它们的人那里，传递给那些想使用它们的人的最佳方式。
And it's a— it was put together in a way that was, for 400 or 500 years, the best technique for taking that information and moving it from those who assembled it to those who wanted to use it.
然后，互联网以一种非常重大的方式改变了这一切。
And then the internet changed that in a very major way.
所以，我们已经亲眼看到、亲身经历了，互联网在信息传递上的改进，给商业带来的后果。
So we have seen firsthand and experienced the business consequences of the improvement offered by the internet in the delivery of information.
报纸虽然没有那么立刻就受到这个问题的冲击，但一旦把配送成本去掉，它还是会面临这个压倒性的因素。我的意思是，我们会把发行收入里相当大的一部分付给投递员，还要额外付钱给片区经理，还要花钱用卡车把产品送出去，还要为大型印刷机之类的东西买单。
And newspapers, although not as immediately susceptible to that problem, still face that overpowering factor when you eliminate the delivery costs, I mean, we pay a significant percentage of our circulation revenue to our carriers, and we pay additional money to the district managers, and we pay for the trucks to deliver the product out, and we pay for huge printing presses and all of that sort of thing.
而且你知道，人们还得砍树，给我们提供原材料，好让我们把信息传递到 Buffalo，比如把 Buffalo Bills 昨天周日比赛的结果和所有细节登出来。
And people do chop down trees in order to give us the raw material to transmit information in Buffalo, you know, about what the Buffalo Bills did yesterday on Sunday with all the details.
而现在有了互联网，几乎任何内容的新增单位成本都接近于零，而且还能即时把信息送达。
And now you have the internet that has virtually no incremental unit cost to anything and can deliver the information instantaneously.
所以这对报纸来说是个很大的因素。
So it's a big factor for newspapers.
在我看来，用不了很多年，报业的样子就会变得非常、非常、非常不一样。
And the newspaper world, in my view, will look very, very, very different in not that many years.
我觉得挺有意思的是，报业里的人对这件事有点分裂。
And I find it kind of interesting because the people in the newspaper business are a little schizophrenic about this.
他们看到了这个趋势，也害怕它，几乎在所有情况下都在试图从运营层面用某种方式去对抗它；但至少其中有些人，还是继续出去买报纸，而且出的价格，好像反映的还是二十年前那种经济状况。可在我看来，很明显，那种状况已经不存在了。
They see this, they're afraid of it, they're in almost all cases trying to combat it in some way operationally, but some of them at least continue to go out and buy papers at a price that sort of reflects the economics that used to exist 20 years ago, when it's—to me, it's very clear that it doesn't exist anymore.
所以他们吧，呃，某种程度上说，眼睛看见了未来，可钱包还留在过去。
So they, they, uh, they sort of have their billfold, you know, in the past, even though they see the future.
而且你知道，我觉得很多情况下，他们可能是在犯错。
And, you know, I think probably they're making mistakes in many cases.
我们几乎所有的业务——像 Coca-Cola，就不会在任何重大程度上受到互联网的影响。
All of our businesses virtually—Coca-Cola will not be affected in any significant way by the internet, you know.
剃刀和刀片这个生意也不会，尽管你也可以设想一些关于分销之类的变化。
The razor and blade business won't be, although you could dream up things about distribution or so on.
但我觉得那种可能性非常小。
But I think that it's very unlikely.